Ball State vs UConn Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CFB Lines & Props (Sep 20)
Updated: 2025-09-13T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Ball State Cardinals, standing at 1-2 after a narrow victory over New Hampshire and tough losses to Purdue and Auburn, look to find their footing on the road against a UConn team that has shown both promise and vulnerability, particularly in defensive breakdowns. The matchup presents a classic mid-season measuring stick for both Group of Five programs: one seeking its first conference win, the other looking to rebound from a high-scoring overtime loss at home.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Sep 20, 2025
Start Time: 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field
Huskies Record: (1-2)
Cardinals Record: (1-2)
OPENING ODDS
BALLST Moneyline: +763
UCONN Moneyline: -1250
BALLST Spread: +20.5
UCONN Spread: -20.5
Over/Under: 52.5
BALLST
Betting Trends
- Ball State’s ATS record for 2025 so far suggests they have not covered as favorites in their losses to Purdue and Auburn, both blowouts against Power Five opponents, though they did manage to cover (and win) in their narrow 34-29 win over New Hampshire. These results indicate that Ball State tends to keep games close in favorable matchups but struggles to exceed expectations when stepping up in competition— a pattern that could influence public and sharp bettor perception heading into this road game.
UCONN
Betting Trends
- UConn’s 2025 ATS results reveal a team that has covered and played competitively in games where they were expected to win, particularly against CCSU, but has been vulnerable as favorites, as seen in their close overtime loss to Syracuse and defensive collapse against Delaware where they lost 44-41 in OT. This inconsistency against both the spread and late-game performers creates uncertainty even as they head into a home matchup with confidence of public expectation behind them.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- This matchup features intriguing betting angles given Ball State’s ability to hang close in comparable matchups and UConn’s tendency to give up high scoring games even when projected to win comfortably. The UConn defense’s recent struggles—particularly in surrending big plays and failing to close tight games—suggest potential value in betting on the total points (Over/Under), as both teams have shown they can produce or concede significant yardage and points. Further, Ball State covering as underdogs previously could engender interest in backing them + the points, especially if UConn’s line reflects their home status but expecting a blowout. Momentum, turnovers, and late-game execution will likely shift betting value as kick-off approaches.
BALLST vs. UCONN
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Browne under 175.5 Passing Yards.
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Ball State vs UConn Prediction & Odds:
Free CFB Betting Insights for 9/20/25
The September 20, 2025, game between the Ball State Cardinals and the UConn Huskies is a matchup that carries intrigue because both programs have endured inconsistency early in the season and are eager to steady their footing before diving deeper into their respective conference slates. Ball State arrives at 1-2, their lone victory a 34-29 nail-biter over New Hampshire, while losses to Purdue and Auburn revealed the challenges of facing Power Five depth and speed. That mixed record illustrates the Cardinals’ volatility—capable of competing when evenly matched but still struggling to impose themselves against superior rosters. UConn, on the other hand, has seen a promising start unravel with painful late-game collapses, including a high-scoring 44-41 overtime defeat to Delaware and a tough loss to Syracuse that highlighted defensive fragility. The Huskies are still averaging strong offensive numbers behind quarterback Joe Fagnano, who has been efficient moving the ball, and a running game that can churn out yards and open up play-action opportunities, but their defensive breakdowns in coverage and tackling have cost them dearly in high-pressure moments. For Ball State, the key will be establishing balance, using the run to stay on schedule and allowing their quarterback to make controlled throws, while their defense must tighten up in red-zone situations to limit UConn’s scoring chances. The Cardinals’ ability to play clean football—limiting turnovers and penalties—could give them the margin they need to keep the game close.
UConn’s path to victory lies in their offensive efficiency and their ability to close out games, as the Huskies have repeatedly put themselves in position to win only to falter late. The environment in East Hartford should favor UConn, but if the defense again struggles to contain explosive plays, Ball State has the personnel to keep it competitive into the fourth quarter. From a betting perspective, UConn may be favored thanks to home-field advantage and offensive production, but their defensive lapses and inability to cover large spreads make them a risky proposition, while Ball State has shown resilience as an underdog, especially against opponents closer to their level. The total points market could see attention on the Over given both teams’ recent propensity for shootouts, particularly UConn’s back-to-back high-scoring contests, though Ball State’s inconsistency could push some bettors toward the Under if they believe the Cardinals will struggle offensively on the road. Ultimately, this game is less about talent disparity than execution, and whichever side corrects its mistakes and manages key late-game sequences will likely come away with the win. For UConn, it is about proving they can close; for Ball State, it is about showing that they can rise on the road and seize momentum against a team prone to leaving the door open.
Get live CFB odds and precise AI CFB picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.
Our @GainbridgeLife Audio Play of the Game, courtesy of @QuaAshley3 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/VTVbt8YfDm
— Ball State Football (@BallStateFB) September 14, 2025
Ball State Cardinals CFB Preview
The Ball State Cardinals head into their September 20, 2025, road contest against UConn carrying the weight of a 1-2 start but also with the optimism that comes from finally finding a spark in their narrow 34-29 win over New Hampshire, which gave them a much-needed confidence boost after back-to-back blowout losses to Purdue and Auburn. Under head coach Mike Uremovich, the Cardinals have tried to establish balance offensively, leaning on their ground game to create manageable down-and-distance situations while gradually building trust in their quarterback to deliver when the passing lanes open. The offensive line has been a work in progress, giving up too much pressure against Power Five defenses, but against a UConn front that has shown vulnerability, particularly in containing rushing attacks and pressuring the quarterback late in games, this group will have opportunities to assert itself. Ball State’s playmakers have flashed ability to produce chunk plays, but consistency remains the hurdle, as long drives have sometimes stalled due to penalties or turnovers. Defensively, the Cardinals are aware of the challenge UConn’s offense presents, especially with a quarterback in Joe Fagnano capable of stretching the field and a rushing attack that forces defenses to stay honest.
The key for Ball State will be winning first and second downs to limit UConn’s versatility, as allowing the Huskies to stay ahead of schedule could turn into long, draining drives that wear down the Cardinals’ front seven. Special teams could prove to be a hidden strength for Ball State, as flipping field position and capitalizing on any Husky miscues in the kicking game might provide the edge they need to keep the contest close. From a betting perspective, Ball State has shown they can hang in games when not severely outmatched athletically, and with UConn’s defense struggling to finish games and giving up big plays, the Cardinals may represent value as underdogs if they avoid self-inflicted wounds. Their formula for success will hinge on controlling tempo with their running game, preventing UConn from building momentum with explosive plays, and keeping the score within striking distance deep into the fourth quarter. While Ball State enters as the underdog, they have enough talent and resilience to push UConn, particularly if they play a clean, disciplined game that forces the Huskies into another tense finish.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
UConn Huskies CFB Preview
The UConn Huskies return to Rentschler Field on September 20, 2025, to host Ball State with both the pressure and the opportunity to reestablish themselves after a rocky start that has featured late-game collapses and defensive breakdowns despite flashes of offensive promise. Head coach Jim Mora’s squad sits at 1-2, with a solid win over Central Connecticut State but frustrating losses to Syracuse and Delaware, the latter a stunning 44-41 overtime setback that exposed glaring issues in the secondary and tackling in space. Offensively, UConn has been effective, with quarterback Joe Fagnano demonstrating poise and accuracy, distributing the ball well to his receivers, and a run game that has shown balance and explosiveness when given space. The offensive line has been serviceable, providing enough protection to sustain drives, though consistency remains an area to improve, particularly against aggressive fronts like the one Ball State may bring. Defensively, however, the Huskies must take a step forward; their inability to close games and prevent explosive plays has cost them dearly, and this matchup offers a chance to restore confidence against a Ball State offense that has struggled with efficiency and turnovers in tougher matchups.
For UConn, the formula will be simple: get out to a fast start at home, establish balance offensively to keep the Cardinals guessing, and avoid giving them confidence by allowing early scoring drives. Special teams will also be critical, as clean execution in the kicking game and discipline on returns could prevent the kind of field position swings that have plagued the Huskies in close contests. From a betting standpoint, UConn’s home-field advantage and offensive firepower will likely make them the favorites, but their track record of letting teams hang around raises questions about their ability to cover spreads, particularly against a Ball State team that thrives on capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes. If the Huskies can improve their tackling, generate pressure on defense, and close out in the fourth quarter, they are well positioned to come away with a much-needed win and possibly a convincing one. However, if their defensive issues persist, the Cardinals could have every opportunity to keep this game close and make the Huskies sweat again in the late stages. For UConn, this is about proving resilience, tightening execution, and showing they can turn potential into results on their home turf.
Final pic.twitter.com/TYNg2LhySj
— UConn Football (@UConnFootball) September 13, 2025
Ball State vs UConn Prop Picks (AI)
Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Cardinals and Huskies play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field in Sep rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Ball State vs UConn Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every simulation between the Cardinals and Huskies and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most keyed in on the growing weight human bettors regularly put on coaching factors between a Cardinals team going up against a possibly tired Huskies team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CFB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Ball State vs UConn picks, computer picks Cardinals vs Huskies, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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| CFB | 12/5 | NOTEX@TULANE | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 7 |
VAULT v4
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| CFB | 12/5 | UNLV@BOISE | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 6 |
VAULT v2
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| CFB | 12/5 | NOTEX@TULANE | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 2 |
INTEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CFB schedule.
Ball State Betting Trends
Ball State’s ATS record for 2025 so far suggests they have not covered as favorites in their losses to Purdue and Auburn, both blowouts against Power Five opponents, though they did manage to cover (and win) in their narrow 34-29 win over New Hampshire. These results indicate that Ball State tends to keep games close in favorable matchups but struggles to exceed expectations when stepping up in competition— a pattern that could influence public and sharp bettor perception heading into this road game.
UConn Betting Trends
UConn’s 2025 ATS results reveal a team that has covered and played competitively in games where they were expected to win, particularly against CCSU, but has been vulnerable as favorites, as seen in their close overtime loss to Syracuse and defensive collapse against Delaware where they lost 44-41 in OT. This inconsistency against both the spread and late-game performers creates uncertainty even as they head into a home matchup with confidence of public expectation behind them.
Cardinals vs. Huskies Matchup Trends
This matchup features intriguing betting angles given Ball State’s ability to hang close in comparable matchups and UConn’s tendency to give up high scoring games even when projected to win comfortably. The UConn defense’s recent struggles—particularly in surrending big plays and failing to close tight games—suggest potential value in betting on the total points (Over/Under), as both teams have shown they can produce or concede significant yardage and points. Further, Ball State covering as underdogs previously could engender interest in backing them + the points, especially if UConn’s line reflects their home status but expecting a blowout. Momentum, turnovers, and late-game execution will likely shift betting value as kick-off approaches.
Ball State vs. UConn Game Info
Ball State vs UConn starts on September 20, 2025 at 3:30 PM EST.
Venue: Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field.
Spread: UConn -20.5
Moneyline: Ball State +763, UConn -1250
Over/Under: 52.5
Ball State: (1-2) | UConn: (1-2)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: R. Browne under 175.5 Passing Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
This matchup features intriguing betting angles given Ball State’s ability to hang close in comparable matchups and UConn’s tendency to give up high scoring games even when projected to win comfortably. The UConn defense’s recent struggles—particularly in surrending big plays and failing to close tight games—suggest potential value in betting on the total points (Over/Under), as both teams have shown they can produce or concede significant yardage and points. Further, Ball State covering as underdogs previously could engender interest in backing them + the points, especially if UConn’s line reflects their home status but expecting a blowout. Momentum, turnovers, and late-game execution will likely shift betting value as kick-off approaches.
BALLST trend: Ball State’s ATS record for 2025 so far suggests they have not covered as favorites in their losses to Purdue and Auburn, both blowouts against Power Five opponents, though they did manage to cover (and win) in their narrow 34-29 win over New Hampshire. These results indicate that Ball State tends to keep games close in favorable matchups but struggles to exceed expectations when stepping up in competition— a pattern that could influence public and sharp bettor perception heading into this road game.
UCONN trend: UConn’s 2025 ATS results reveal a team that has covered and played competitively in games where they were expected to win, particularly against CCSU, but has been vulnerable as favorites, as seen in their close overtime loss to Syracuse and defensive collapse against Delaware where they lost 44-41 in OT. This inconsistency against both the spread and late-game performers creates uncertainty even as they head into a home matchup with confidence of public expectation behind them.
See our latest CFB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Ball State vs. UConn Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each team. In fact, anytime the Ball State vs UConn trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
| BALLST Moneyline | +763 |
|---|---|
| UCONN Moneyline | -1250 |
| BALLST Spread | +20.5 |
| UCONN Spread | -20.5 |
| Over / Under | 52.5 |
Ball State vs UConn Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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In Progress
Kennesaw State Owls
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
In Progress
KENSAW
JAXST
|
7
0
|
-500
+330
|
-8.5 (-135)
+8.5 (+100)
|
O 38.5 (+100)
U 38.5 (-135)
|
|
|
In Progress
Troy Trojans
James Madison Dukes
In Progress
TROY
JMAD
|
7
16
|
+1700
-10000
|
+20.5 (+100)
-20.5 (-132)
|
O 48.5 (-125)
U 48.5 (-106)
|
|
|
In Progress
UNLV Rebels
Boise State Broncos
In Progress
UNLV
BOISE
|
0
0
|
+200
-265
|
+6.5 (+102)
-6.5 (-136)
|
O 54.5 (-130)
U 54.5 (-102)
|
|
|
In Progress
North Texas Mean Green
Tulane Green Wave
In Progress
NOTEX
TULANE
|
0
0
|
-164
+128
|
-3.5 (-106)
+3.5 (-125)
|
O 63.5 (-132)
U 63.5 (+100)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 12:00PM EST
Miami Ohio Redhawks
Western Michigan Broncos
12/6/25 12PM
MIAOH
WMICH
|
–
–
|
-124
|
-1.5 (-115)
|
O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 12:00PM EST
BYU Cougars
Texas Tech Red Raiders
12/6/25 12PM
BYU
TXTECH
|
–
–
|
+385
-500
|
+12.5 (-110)
-12.5 (-110)
|
O 49.5 (-105)
U 49.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 4:00PM EST
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
12/6/25 4PM
UGA
BAMA
|
–
–
|
-124
+104
|
-2.5 (-105)
+2.5 (-115)
|
O 48.5 (-106)
U 48.5 (-114)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 8:00PM EST
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
12/6/25 8PM
DUKE
UVA
|
–
–
|
+152
-180
|
+3.5 (-102)
-3.5 (-120)
|
O 57.5 (-115)
U 57.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 8:00PM EST
Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes
12/6/25 8PM
IND
OHIOST
|
–
–
|
+156
-186
|
+4.5 (-115)
-4.5 (-105)
|
O 46.5 (-114)
U 46.5 (-106)
|
|
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Dec 13, 2025 3:00PM EST
Army Black Knights
Navy Midshipmen
12/13/25 3PM
ARMY
NAVY
|
–
–
|
+172
-210
|
+4.5 (-105)
-4.5 (-115)
|
O 38.5 (-110)
U 38.5 (-110)
|
CFB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Ball State Cardinals vs. UConn Huskies on September 20, 2025 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CFB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
|
CFB |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO@KSTATE | COLO +17.5 | 54.0% | 4 | WIN |
| PSU@RUT | RUT +14 | 52.8% | 1 | WIN |
| OHIOST@MICH | MICH +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| VATECH@UVA | VATECH +8 | 57.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| NWEST@ILL | LUKE ALTMYER UNDER 19.5 PASS COMP | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| ORE@WAS | DEMOND WILLIAMS JR UNDER 43.5 RUSH YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| MIAMI@VATECH | VATECH +18.5 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| GAST@TROY | TROY -9.5 | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
| DEL@WAKE | DEL +18 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| NMEX@AF | NMEX -3.5 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WASHST@JMAD | WASHST +14.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
| ILL@WISC | WISC +9 | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WKY@LSU | WKY +23.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| WASH@UCLA | DEMOND WILLIAMS UNDER 27.5 PASS ATT | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| TCU@HOU | AMARE THOMAS OVER 69.5 RECV YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| TEX@UGA | NATE FRAZIER UNDER 65.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| PUR@WASH | ANTONIO HARRIS UNDER 73.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| OKLA@BAMA | UNDER 46 | 52.4% | 2 | WIN |
| UVA@DUKE | DUKE -3.5 | 54.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| OKLA@BAMA | BAMA -6 | 54.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| OREGST@TULSA | OREGST -120 | 55.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| UTEP@MIZZST | MIZZST -5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| COLOST@NMEX | NMEX -14 | 57.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| PSU@MICHST | MICHST +7.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| MISSST@MIZZOU | MISSST +7.5 | 57.2% | 7 | LOSS |
| FAU@TULANE | FAU +17.5 | 56.0% | 6 | WIN |
| NCST@MIAMI | NCST +15.5 | 57.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| KENTST@AKRON | AKRON -6.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| JAXST@UTEP | JAXST -105 | 57.0% | 7 | WIN |
| FSU@CLEM | CLEM -118 | 57.1% | 5 | WIN |
| UNLV@COLOST | UNLV -4 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| OREG@IOWA | IOWA +6.5 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NEB +1.5 | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| KENSAW@NMEXST | NMEXST +10 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
| STNFRD@UNC | STNFRD +7.5 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| DUKE@UCONN | UCONN +8.5 | 57.9% | 7 | WIN |
| NEVADA@UTAHST | NEVADA +9.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| SAMST@OREGST | SAMST +21 | 57.7% | 7 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NICO IAMALEAVA UNDER 180.5 PASS YDS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@UCF | HOU -112 | 58.0% | 6 | WIN |
| GASTHRN@APPST | GASTHRN +180 | 36.5% | 2 | WIN |
| KENTST@BALLST | BALLST -2.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| WAKE@FSU | WAKE +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| WYO@SDGST | SDGST -10.5 | 56.7% | 7 | WIN |
| OKLA@TENN | TENN -130 | 58.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| GATECH@NCST | GATECH -5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| MIAMI@SMU | MIAMI -10 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| IND@MD | MD +21.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| CINCY@UTAH | CINCY +11 | 57.6% | 7 | LOSS |
| OLDDOM@LAMON | LAMON +17 | 58.4% | 8 | LOSS |
| VANDY@TEXAS | OVER 46.5 | 53.7% | 2 | WIN |