The September 20, 2025, matchup between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Baylor Bears in Waco is shaping up to be a fascinating test of two Big 12 programs looking to establish consistency as the season turns toward conference play, with Baylor leaning on its explosive passing attack and home-field advantage while Arizona State seeks to prove its defensive growth and offensive balance can hold up on the road. Arizona State enters the contest 1-1, having opened with a convincing 38-19 win over Northern Arizona before falling narrowly to Mississippi State 24-20, a game in which they showed grit but were ultimately undone by inconsistency in finishing drives and allowing too many chunk plays defensively. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been serviceable in guiding the offense, showing the ability to move the ball through the air while also struggling at times with turnovers and decision-making, which will need to improve if the Sun Devils want to keep pace with Baylor’s high-powered offense. The absence of last year’s star running back Cam Skattebo has forced Arizona State to lean on a committee approach in the backfield, and while production has been respectable, it has not had the same game-breaking impact, putting added pressure on the passing game to create explosive plays. Defensively, the Sun Devils have shown flashes of resilience, particularly in the trenches, but their secondary has been tested and at times exploited by opponents who can stretch the field, which is precisely the type of offense Baylor thrives on. The Bears, at 1-1, are coming off a double-overtime thriller against SMU in which quarterback Sawyer Robertson put on a show with a prolific passing display, and though they followed with a loss to Auburn, the Bears’ offense again proved capable of generating points in bunches.

Robertson’s chemistry with his receivers has been a highlight, and Baylor’s ability to create explosive plays through the air makes them a constant threat to flip momentum instantly, while their offensive line has held up well enough to allow for sustained production. Baylor’s defense, however, has been less consistent, allowing big plays and struggling to get off the field on key downs, something Arizona State will look to exploit by mixing in short, efficient passes and leaning on the run to keep the Bears honest. At home, Baylor will look to start fast, feeding off the crowd and putting Arizona State into an early hole, while the Sun Devils will focus on ball control, mistake-free football, and timely defensive stops to stay within striking distance. From a betting perspective, Baylor will almost certainly be favored at home, perhaps by a touchdown or slightly more, reflecting both their offensive upside and Arizona State’s unproven ability to keep pace in a shootout, but the Sun Devils’ narrow loss to Mississippi State suggests they have the resilience to hang around if they play disciplined football. The total is likely to lean high given Baylor’s offensive explosiveness and Arizona State’s defensive inconsistencies, though an Under could materialize if the Sun Devils successfully slow tempo and force the Bears into longer, grinding drives. Ultimately, this game boils down to whether Arizona State can disrupt Robertson’s rhythm and limit big plays, because if Baylor’s passing game finds early success, the Bears have the tools to cover and win convincingly, but if Arizona State controls the clock and takes advantage of Baylor’s defensive lapses, this could turn into a closer contest than the oddsmakers might suggest.