The September 6, 2025 matchup between the Baylor Bears and the SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas is one of the more intriguing non-conference rivalry games of Week 2, as it pairs two Texas programs with deep history and different but equally compelling motivations, and oddsmakers have made SMU a narrow three-point favorite with the total hovering in the mid-50s, reflecting confidence in the Mustangs’ momentum as a newly established ACC program while still acknowledging Baylor’s ability to keep things close through offensive firepower and rivalry grit. SMU comes into this contest off a 42–13 dismantling of East Texas A&M in their opener, a game that highlighted their offensive balance behind quarterback Kevin Jennings and their opportunistic defense, which scored twice on interception returns and looked aggressive throughout, affirming head coach Rhett Lashlee’s emphasis on tempo and explosiveness. The Mustangs, who broke through in 2024 with an ACC championship game appearance, are trying to cement themselves as a top-20 program with national aspirations, and a rivalry win over Baylor would strengthen that case. Baylor, however, is not to be overlooked despite an opening 38–24 loss to Auburn that dropped them to 0–1 ATS, because quarterback Sawyer Robertson threw for over 400 yards and receiver Kole Wilson was nearly unstoppable with 134 yards and a score, showing that the Bears can produce explosive passing offense when protection holds. The question for Baylor is whether their defense, gashed on the ground by Auburn, can regroup quickly enough to contain SMU’s pace and limit yards after the catch from a speedy Mustang receiving corps, and whether their front seven can at least create enough pressure to force Jennings into mistakes.

The chess match will unfold with Baylor looking to sustain drives, slow tempo, and keep SMU’s defense on the field, while the Mustangs will want to push the pace, generate turnovers, and seize momentum in front of what should be a raucous home crowd. Special teams could provide hidden edges, especially in a rivalry where emotions run high and momentum swings are often decisive, and both sides will stress clean execution to avoid giving away free points. From a betting perspective, SMU’s 1–0 ATS record and the fact that roughly two-thirds of bettors are backing them reflects strong confidence in their trajectory, but the 34 percent of bettors siding with Baylor show that there is belief in their rivalry resilience and ability to cover in a high-pressure setting. Ultimately, this game may hinge on which quarterback handles the spotlight better, whether Robertson can stay upright and continue to connect with Wilson and other playmakers, or whether Jennings can use his dual-threat ability to carve up a Bears defense that is still searching for answers. Either way, the outcome will carry weight beyond the scoreboard: for SMU, it is a chance to solidify their rising national profile and prove they can sustain success under Lashlee, while for Baylor it is an opportunity to rebound from an opening loss, spoil their rival’s momentum, and reestablish their place as a competitive force in Texas football.