August 30, 2025 at 7:30 PM EST (local listed time).

Venue: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium.

Spread: Utah State -6.0
Moneyline: UTEP +186, Utah State -227
Over/Under: 60.5

UTEP: (0-0)  |  Utah State: (0-0)

Sides trend: While betting lines aren’t out yet, this matchup likely opens with Utah State favored by 8–10 points and a total near 55, implying both teams must avoid mistakes and sustain drives if they hope to beat the number.
UTEP trend: UTEP closed the 2024 season with a 3–9 record, scoring just 19.5 points per game and allowing over 32—a profile that usually underperforms against the spread.
UTAHST trend: Utah State went 4–8 in 2024, scoring a solid 31.9 points per game but giving up a hefty 37.8, suggesting unpredictability despite offensive capability.

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game. (posted 2025-08-23T02:28:40.156150Z). Prices move—always shop for the best number.

UTEP outlook: UTEP heads into its Week 1 matchup at Utah State with the goal of showing tangible progress in year two under head coach Scotty Walden, who inherits a program that has struggled to find consistency but is trying to establish a new identity built on tempo, energy, and discipline. The Miners closed 2024 at 3–9, averaging just 19.5 points per game and allowing over 32, a statistical profile that left them fighting uphill battles almost every week, and addressing those gaps is the top priority heading into 2025. Offensively, UTEP needs sharper quarterback play and steadier protection from its offensive line, as too often last season promising drives were undone by sacks, penalties, or turnovers, leaving the defense exposed. Walden’s system is designed to play fast and spread the field, giving skill position players opportunities to create in space, and the Miners will look to generate explosive plays against a Utah State defense that surrendered nearly 38 points per game in 2024 and ranked among the nation’s worst in explosive-play prevention. If UTEP can lean on a balanced attack, establishing enough of a run game to keep the Aggies honest while taking timely deep shots, they have the chance to string together drives and keep pressure on the home team.

Defensively, however, the Miners face an equally steep task, as Utah State averaged nearly 32 points per game last season and returns several key offensive pieces capable of stretching the field vertically and pounding the ball on the ground. UTEP’s defense must focus on fundamentals—better tackling, maintaining gap integrity, and forcing third-and-long situations where they can unleash pressure—because allowing Utah State to dictate tempo will almost certainly lead to another high-scoring game where the Miners fall behind. From a betting perspective, UTEP’s poor overall results in 2024 were reflected in their struggles against the spread, but as a projected underdog of more than a touchdown, they may have value if they can execute cleanly and show even modest defensive improvement. Their formula for keeping the game close lies in starting fast, avoiding turnovers that lead to short fields, and using tempo to prevent Utah State’s defense from settling into rhythm. For Walden, this game represents more than a non-conference test—it’s an opportunity to prove his system is beginning to take hold and that the Miners can compete with Mountain West opponents, a crucial step as they look to elevate the program’s trajectory. Even if an outright win is unlikely, staying competitive into the second half and perhaps covering the spread would mark progress and provide a building block for the season ahead. Ultimately, UTEP enters Logan as a clear underdog, but with the right mix of discipline, execution, and opportunism, they have the chance to make the Aggies work far harder than expected in their home opener.
Utah State outlook: Utah State opens its 2025 campaign at Maverik Stadium against UTEP with optimism that the program is entering a new era under head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who was hired to restore toughness, discipline, and consistency after a frustrating 4–8 season in 2024 that left the Aggies short of expectations. The numbers tell the story of last year: an offense that was often potent, scoring 31.9 points per game and showing balance through the air and on the ground, paired with a defense that unraveled far too often, yielding 37.8 points per contest and failing to generate consistent stops on third downs or in the red zone. That defensive fragility cost Utah State multiple winnable games, and it’s the area Mendenhall has emphasized most since arriving, bringing with him a culture that stresses accountability and fundamentals. Offensively, the Aggies enter this matchup with continuity and weapons across the board, giving them the ability to dictate tempo and punish UTEP’s defense both through explosive plays downfield and steady runs between the tackles, particularly if the offensive line can assert itself early. The key will be to avoid turnovers and stalled drives, because allowing UTEP to hang around with short fields could complicate what should otherwise be a favorable home opener.

Defensively, Utah State’s mandate is clear: clean up tackling, maintain gap discipline, and disrupt UTEP’s rhythm before the Miners can find comfort in Scotty Walden’s tempo-based scheme. With UTEP coming off a season where they averaged just 19.5 points per game and struggled mightily in protection, this is a prime opportunity for the Aggies to build confidence by generating pressure, forcing three-and-outs, and limiting big plays. Oddsmakers are likely to make Utah State an 8-to-10 point favorite with a total around the mid-50s, signaling expectations for their offense to produce while the defense faces a test of progress. For the Aggies, this game is about setting the tone: a decisive win and a comfortable cover would reinforce Mendenhall’s arrival as the right hire and inject belief into both the locker room and fan base, while a sluggish or mistake-filled performance could reignite concerns about the team’s ability to handle even mid-tier opponents. The home-field advantage in Logan should provide energy, but it will be execution and discipline that determine whether Utah State validates its status as the favorite. Ultimately, this opener gives the Aggies a chance to showcase growth, establish defensive credibility, and build momentum for the rest of their Mountain West slate, and if they deliver a balanced, complete performance, they should be able to secure a convincing win over UTEP while taking the first step in reshaping their identity under Mendenhall.

Yes. We refresh projections as injuries, weather, and prices change—last updated 2025-08-23T02:28:40.156150Z.

Explore more previews and odds on our CFB hub via the site menu, or use our odds comparison pages to shop lines.