Must Bet CFB Week 15 AI Picks, Predictions & Hidden Market Mistakes
Updated: 2025-11-30T08:00:00-06:00By Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
Our Week 15 CFB computer picks combine play-by-play data, simulations, and market moves to surface ATS, moneyline, over/under, and player prop edges. Below you’ll find AI predictions with confidence ratings, plus best bets and buy-to numbers.
Pro tip: prices move. Refresh before kickoff to catch new edges and verify current odds.
Best Week 15
CFB AI Player Prop
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Bachmeier over 30.5 Rushing Yards.
WEEK 15 CFB Computer Picks (ATS, ML, O/U)
WEEK 15 CFB Odds
WEEK 15 CFB ODDS COMPARISON
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CFB Week 15 of the 2025 season marks the moment when the regular season gives way to raw urgency, with conference title implications and playoff positioning coming sharply into focus across the country. This is the week where contenders such as Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas are forced to prove their consistency under pressure, often against opponents playing spoiler with nothing to lose. Quarterbacks who have thrived in rhythm settings now face hostile environments and defensive game plans designed specifically to take away primary reads, while defensive fronts are tested for depth as snap counts climb and physical wear becomes harder to hide. Week 15 strips away the margin for sloppy execution and places a premium on situational football, where third-down efficiency, red-zone execution, and late-game decision-making determine which teams remain in the championship conversation.
What makes Week 15 especially volatile is how sharply motivation diverges across the landscape. Some teams arrive fully locked in with conference championship bids within reach, while others are fighting simply to extend their seasons into bowl eligibility. Rivalry dynamics intensify emotions, removing schematic mystery and forcing clean execution from the opening drive. Weather, travel, and short rest quietly influence outcomes, particularly in outdoor venues where late-season conditions begin to slow tempo and compress margins. For bettors and fans alike, Week 15 is where AI-driven analysis becomes indispensable, cutting through narrative and reputation to identify which teams are peaking, which are fading under physical strain, and where hidden matchup edges can swing games before the postseason picture fully crystallizes.
Week 15 of the 2025 college football season arrives with the calendar pressing hard against the postseason, where every snap carries weight and every mistake echoes louder. This is the stretch where programs like Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, and USC are no longer afforded patience, as playoff positioning and conference title hopes hinge on execution rather than perception. Quarterbacks operating at a high level through the fall are tested by defenses playing with full familiarity and urgency, while offensive lines carry added responsibility as injuries and fatigue accumulate. Rivalry games and divisional battles dominate the slate, stripping away schematic surprises and turning matchups into four-quarter tests of discipline and toughness.
What defines this late-November week is the collision of urgency and opportunity. Some teams play with clear paths to championship games, while others embrace spoiler roles that can reshape the national picture in a single afternoon. Weather and travel quietly begin to influence outcomes, particularly in outdoor venues where wind and cold compress scoring and reward physicality. Coaching decisions grow sharper, rotations tighten, and stars are leaned on more heavily as margins disappear. For bettors and fans alike, Week 15 is where AI-driven insight proves invaluable, cutting through emotion and reputation to reveal which teams are peaking at the right moment, which are surviving on fumes, and where hidden matchup edges can decide games before the postseason bracket ever comes into view.
Just doing us.
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) December 1, 2025
December football 🔜 pic.twitter.com/66aZCpG3WV
Live AI CFB Picks — Week 15
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NCAAF Schedule.
Below is our current AI CFB picks Week 15, CFB computer picks Week 15, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
Week 15 Storylines & Angles
Offense vs. Defense Mismatches
CFB Week 15 sharpens the focus on efficiency metrics that separate true contenders from teams merely surviving the stretch run, with EPA per play and success rate offering the clearest indicators of who can handle late-season pressure. Offenses that stay ahead of the chains, such as Georgia or Michigan at their most consistent, maintain control in rivalry-heavy environments because they avoid the negative plays that swing momentum instantly. High success-rate teams force defenses to defend full drives, and red-zone touchdown rate becomes a defining edge as field goals rarely suffice when stakes are this high. Programs that finish drives with physical run concepts or layered play-action hold a clear advantage over defenses that tighten between the 20s but crack near the goal line.
The most decisive mismatches in Week 15 often emerge in pass-rush versus protection and the ability to generate explosive plays without losing structure. Defensive fronts capable of creating pressure with four can collapse opponent EPA quickly, especially against offensive lines worn down by conference schedules. On the other side, offenses with reliable protection and quick answers can neutralize elite pass rushes and maintain pace, preventing games from tilting on a handful of negative snaps. Pace itself becomes a subtle weapon, as teams that can toggle tempo stress defensive depth late, particularly in cold or hostile environments. Explosive plays still matter, but in Week 15 they are typically earned through misdirection, play-action, or fatigue-driven breakdowns rather than pure speed. AI-driven analysis in this window prioritizes how efficiency, trench play, and explosiveness intersect, identifying where disciplined offenses can withstand pressure and where a single protection flaw or red-zone failure can decide a season-altering game.
Quarterback & Scheme Trends
CFB Week 15 places quarterbacks at the center of the postseason conversation, where recent form and decision-making under pressure matter far more than season-long production. Rivalry familiarity and late-season fatigue expose pressure-versus-blitz splits in a hurry, separating quarterbacks who can punish extra rushers from those who falter when defenses win with four. Teams with veteran signal-callers who process quickly and protect the football tend to stabilize games late in November, while quarterbacks who struggle against interior pressure often see their offenses stall as defensive coordinators tighten coverage and dare them to be patient. This is the week where poise on third down and accuracy in the red zone outweigh arm strength, and where one ill-timed decision can swing an entire season.
Scheme trends amplify those quarterback realities, particularly through motion usage, under-center rates, and situational play-calling. Programs leaning on heavy pre-snap motion continue to gain leverage by forcing defenses to declare coverage, simplifying reads in hostile environments where crowd noise complicates communication. Increased under-center usage late in the season often signals a commitment to play-action efficiency, run balance, and clock control, all designed to protect quarterbacks as pressure intensifies. Situational play-calling tightens dramatically in Week 15, with coordinators prioritizing concepts that minimize negative plays on third down and inside the red zone rather than chasing low-percentage explosives. AI-driven analysis highlights which teams are supporting their quarterbacks with structure and discipline and which are exposing them to unnecessary risk. In a week defined by urgency and familiarity, the intersection of quarterback form and schematic restraint frequently determines whether drives end in touchdowns or season-altering mistakes.
Travel, Rest & Situational Spots
CFB Week 15 magnifies every situational edge and disadvantage as teams navigate late-season fatigue, emotional swings, and demanding travel spots with postseason implications looming. Short-week turnarounds following rivalry games or physical conference matchups often show up first along the lines of scrimmage, where recovery time is critical and depth is tested. Cross-country travel and body-clock disruptions can sap early-game sharpness, especially for teams playing unfamiliar kickoff windows or transitioning into colder climates late in November. Altitude and weather-adjacent environments quietly add stress to defenses forced to defend extended drives, and these effects tend to surface in the second half when conditioning and rotation depth are exposed. These logistical factors rarely headline previews, but they consistently influence tempo, tackling efficiency, and late-game execution.
Situational dynamics become even sharper when rivalry and motivation intersect. Look-ahead and let-down angles loom large in Week 15, particularly for teams sitting just ahead of conference championship games or clinging to playoff hopes while facing opponents eager to spoil seasons. Rivalry matchups strip away schematic mystery, forcing clean execution and amplifying emotional intensity regardless of record or ranking. Conference dynamics also matter, as teams fighting for division or title positioning often play with urgency that contrasts sharply with opponents already eliminated from contention. Coaching tendencies become clearer in these spots, with some staffs managing conservatively to protect leads and health, while others push aggressively to seize control early. AI-driven situational modeling thrives in Week 15 by identifying where travel stress, emotional residue, or motivational imbalance subtly undermines performance, offering clarity in a week where context and circumstance can quietly decide outcomes before talent ever takes over.
Weather & Late-Breaking Injuries
CFB Week 15 weather trends become increasingly influential as late-November conditions begin to dictate how games are played rather than how they’re drawn up. Wind is the primary driver when it comes to totals and deep passing, with sustained speeds around 15 mph already limiting vertical attempts and anything pushing past 20 mph forcing offenses to abandon timing-based downfield concepts almost entirely. Rain compounds those issues by disrupting footing and ball security, often dragging red-zone touchdown rates down as coordinators opt for safer calls and lean more heavily on run fits near the goal line. Snow, while less common, dramatically shifts games toward trench warfare when it appears, neutralizing speed advantages on the perimeter and rewarding teams built around physical run games and disciplined tackling. In rivalry-heavy Week 15 slates, these conditions frequently compress margins and turn what look like high-scoring matchups on paper into grind-it-out battles decided by efficiency and patience.
Player availability adds another layer of volatility this late in the season, as accumulated wear forces coaching staffs into careful snap and usage decisions. Questionable or limited starters, particularly at quarterback, along the offensive line, or within the defensive front, often suit up but see adjusted workloads designed to preserve effectiveness rather than volume. Skill-position players dealing with soft-tissue injuries may remain active yet operate within reduced route trees or situational packages, increasing reliance on tight ends, backs, or secondary receivers in high-leverage moments. On defense, limited pass rushers can lead to schematic shifts such as heavier blitz usage or softer coverage shells, subtly increasing short-area efficiency even when weather suppresses explosive plays. AI-driven weather and availability modeling in Week 15 focuses on identifying when totals are inflated by reputation rather than environment, when passing volume is likely to compress sharply, and which teams are structurally equipped to adapt when late-season football strips the game down to fundamentals, execution, and toughness.
Check up to the minute weather forecasts here.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
CFB Week 15 Best Bets & AI Prop Picks
Week 15 CFB Best Bet – Pro Tips
Note Price sensitivity: We crunch numbers, not teams. If the market moves beyond our
buy-to number, expected value decays and the edge can disappear. Respect the price.
Unit sizing (1–10): Our unit scale reflects model signal strength, injury/variance risk,
and current line availability. Higher units = stronger conviction, not permission to over-expose.
Staking & correlation: Default stake scales with edge and volatility. Avoid stacking too many
correlated outcomes (same game, same player ladder) unless you deliberately size down.
Closing-Line Value (CLV): Beating the close consistently is a quality signal—even across small samples.
Track your entry vs. close; it’s the most reliable feedback loop for long-term profitability.
Week 15 Line Movement
Every pick includes a playable to line or price (e.g., -2.5, Over 44.5, +115). If you can’t get that number or better, consider passing or reducing stake. Lines move—check back for live updates in our Live AI Picks stream and see quick notes in Odds & Line Movement.
Note – all of our data is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation as to whether or how to wager.
out of this world 🚀
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) December 1, 2025
pic.twitter.com/BAcS0t4kQM
Line Movement Tracker — Week 15
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Aug 29, 2026 12:00PM EDT
NC State Wolfpack
Virginia Cavaliers
8/29/26 12PM
NCST
UVA
|
–
–
|
+108
-130
|
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
|
O 54.5 (-105)
U 54.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Aug 29, 2026 12:00PM EDT
North Carolina Tar Heels
TCU Horned Frogs
8/29/26 12PM
UNC
TCU
|
–
–
|
+210
-260
|
+6.5 (-102)
-6.5 (-120)
|
O 50.5 (-105)
U 50.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Sep 5, 2026 12:00PM EDT
Clemson Tigers
LSU Tigers
9/5/26 12PM
CLEM
LSU
|
–
–
|
+365
-490
|
+11.5 (-110)
-11.5 (-110)
|
O 50.5 (-110)
U 50.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 5, 2026 12:00PM EDT
UCLA Bruins
California Golden Bears
9/5/26 12PM
UCLA
CAL
|
–
–
|
+102
-122
|
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
|
O 53.5 (-110)
U 53.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 5, 2026 12:00PM EDT
Baylor Bears
Auburn Tigers
9/5/26 12PM
BAYLOR
AUBURN
|
–
–
|
+250
-315
|
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
|
O 58.5 (-110)
U 58.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 5, 2026 12:00PM EDT
Louisville Cardinals
Ole Miss Rebels
9/5/26 12PM
LVILLE
OLEMISS
|
–
–
|
+235
-295
|
+7.5 (-115)
-7.5 (-105)
|
O 52.5 (-115)
U 52.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Sep 6, 2026 12:00PM EDT
Wisconsin Badgers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
9/6/26 12PM
WISC
ND
|
–
–
|
+920
-1800
|
+19.5 (-110)
-19.5 (-110)
|
O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Sep 6, 2026 7:30PM EDT
Louisville Cardinals
Ole Miss Rebels
9/6/26 7:30PM
LVILLE
OLEMISS
|
–
–
|
+235
-290
|
+7 (-108)
-7 (-112)
|
O 53.5 (-112)
U 53.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Sep 7, 2026 12:00PM EDT
SMU Mustangs
Florida State Seminoles
9/7/26 12PM
SMU
FSU
|
–
–
|
-142
+120
|
-2.5 (-112)
+2.5 (-108)
|
O 52.5 (-112)
U 52.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Sep 12, 2026 12:00PM EDT
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns
9/12/26 12PM
OHIOST
TEXAS
|
–
–
|
+104
-125
|
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-112)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Sep 12, 2026 12:00PM EDT
Oklahoma Sooners
Michigan Wolverines
9/12/26 12PM
OKLA
MICH
|
–
–
|
+122
-146
|
+2.5 (-104)
-2.5 (-118)
|
O 45.5 (-110)
U 45.5 (-110)
|
How Our AI Picks Work
Our CFB model blends play-by-play efficiency, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. We incorporate injury reports, rest/travel effects, and weather to adjust team strength and total expectations. Each game is simulated thousands of times to produce fair prices; the displayed Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current market.
Market-aware: incorporates liquidity windows and closing-line efficiency.
Context-adjusted: rest days, travel, altitude, tempo, and scheme tendencies.
Transparency: we show confidence, edges, and track CLV and ROI.
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game across CFB week 15 using recursive machine learning to impressive AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of emphasis emotional bettors often put on player performance factors between a visitors team going up against a possibly rested home teams. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CFB AI picks for FREE now.
FAQ — Week 15 CFB AI Picks
Where can I see Week 15 CFB AI picks by bet type?
Right on this page. We publish Week 15 CFB computer picks organized by Against the Spread (ATS), Moneyline, Totals (Over/Under), and Player Props so you can jump straight to the markets you bet most.
What are the “best bets” for Week 15 according to the model?
“Best bets” are our highest-confidence Week 15 CFB AI picks based on fair price vs. current odds. Look for larger Model Edge % and higher confidence stars; those signal stronger value at widely available prices.
How are your Week 15 CFB computer picks generated?
We combine play-by-play data, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. The model produces a fair price for each side/total/prop, then compares it to live odds to surface Week 15 edges worth betting.
How often do you update Week 15 CFB AI picks?
Throughout the week and up to kickoff. As injuries, weather, and prices move, our projections refresh—so check back closer to game time for the most accurate read on Week 15 value.
Do your Week 15 picks include player props like anytime TD or yardage?
Yes. Our Week 15 CFB AI picks include props such as anytime touchdown, rushing/receiving yards, passing yards, attempts, and more when markets are liquid and pricing shows an edge.
Do you post same-game parlay (SGP) ideas for Week 15?
When correlations and prices justify it, we highlight SGP concepts tied to our Week 15 AI edges—think side/total anchored to complementary player props. We only list combos when expected value remains positive.
What do Model Edge % and units mean?
Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current line/price. Units (1–10) summarize signal quality, volatility, and line availability for Week 15 CFB AI picks.
What are “buy-to” numbers, and what if the line moves?
“Buy-to” is the furthest playable number before expected value disappears. If the market pushes past that level, the Week 15 pick may no longer qualify—wait for a better price or skip the bet.
Do you track closing-line value (CLV) and ROI for Week 15?
Yes. We grade results against widely available prices at publish time and monitor CLV to gauge process quality. You’ll also find recent record and ROI to keep Week 15 performance transparent.
How should I size bets on Week 15 CFB AI picks?
Scale stake size with edge and volatility. Larger Model Edge % and higher confidence typically merit slightly larger positions, but avoid over-exposure to correlated outcomes within the same game.
Are teasers viable for Week 15?
Sometimes. Teasers can make sense around key numbers when totals and pricing conditions are favorable. If our Week 15 read flags teaser value, we’ll note the recommended legs and limits.
How do injuries, weather, and travel impact Week 15 CFB picks?
Materially. The model adjusts team strength, pace, and totals for late scratches, snap-count news, wind/rain/cold thresholds, altitude, rest, and travel. Those inputs can change edges close to kickoff.
Where can I compare Week 15 CFB odds to shop the best number?
Use your preferred odds screen or our odds links from this page. Shopping lines is essential—Model Edge % is calculated against available prices, and the best number often determines long-term ROI.
Can I get alerts when new Week 15 CFB AI picks post or when lines move to buy-to?
Yes. Enable notifications or subscribe for alerts so you catch new Week 15 AI picks, notable line moves, and updates to buy-to ranges before the market fully adjusts.
Past CFB AI Picks
|
|
|
|
RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLEMISS@GEORGIA | KEWAN LACY ANYTIME TD | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| BAMA@IND | FERNANDO MENDOZA UNDER 26.5 PASS ATT | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| OREG@TXTECH | OREG -126 | 58.9% | 6 | WIN |
| NEB@UTAH | DEVON DAMPIER UNDER 185.5 PASS YDS | 53.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| NOTEX@SDGST | NOTEX -7 | 54.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| BAMA@OKLA | ISAIAH SATEGNA III ANYTIME TD | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| BYU@TTU | PARKER KINGSTON OVER 20.5 LONGEST RECEPTION | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| UNLV@BOISE | BOISE -4.5 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| ECU@FAU | FAU +7 | 57.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| OREG@WASH | WASH +7 | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| WYO@HAWAII | WYO +7.5 | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| COLO@KSTATE | COLO +17.5 | 54.0% | 4 | WIN |
| OHIOST@MICH | MICH +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| VATECH@UVA | VATECH +8 | 57.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| NWEST@ILL | LUKE ALTMYER UNDER 19.5 PASS COMP | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| ORE@WAS | DEMOND WILLIAMS JR UNDER 43.5 RUSH YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| MIAMI@VATECH | VATECH +18.5 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| GAST@TROY | TROY -9.5 | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
| DEL@WAKE | DEL +18 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| NMEX@AF | NMEX -3.5 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WASHST@JMAD | WASHST +14.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
| ILL@WISC | WISC +9 | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WKY@LSU | WKY +23.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| WASH@UCLA | DEMOND WILLIAMS UNDER 27.5 PASS ATT | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| TCU@HOU | AMARE THOMAS OVER 69.5 RECV YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| TEX@UGA | NATE FRAZIER UNDER 65.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| PUR@WASH | ANTONIO HARRIS UNDER 73.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| UVA@DUKE | DUKE -3.5 | 54.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| OKLA@BAMA | BAMA -6 | 54.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| OREGST@TULSA | OREGST -120 | 55.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| UTEP@MIZZST | MIZZST -5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| COLOST@NMEX | NMEX -14 | 57.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| PSU@MICHST | MICHST +7.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| MISSST@MIZZOU | MISSST +7.5 | 57.2% | 7 | LOSS |
| FAU@TULANE | FAU +17.5 | 56.0% | 6 | WIN |
| NCST@MIAMI | NCST +15.5 | 57.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| KENTST@AKRON | AKRON -6.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| JAXST@UTEP | JAXST -105 | 57.0% | 7 | WIN |
| FSU@CLEM | CLEM -118 | 57.1% | 5 | WIN |
| UNLV@COLOST | UNLV -4 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| OREG@IOWA | IOWA +6.5 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NEB +1.5 | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| KENSAW@NMEXST | NMEXST +10 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
| STNFRD@UNC | STNFRD +7.5 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| DUKE@UCONN | UCONN +8.5 | 57.9% | 7 | WIN |
| NEVADA@UTAHST | NEVADA +9.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| SAMST@OREGST | SAMST +21 | 57.7% | 7 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NICO IAMALEAVA UNDER 180.5 PASS YDS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@UCF | HOU -112 | 58.0% | 6 | WIN |
| KENTST@BALLST | BALLST -2.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| WAKE@FSU | WAKE +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |