Saint Mary's vs Alabama Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CBB Lines & Props (Mar 23)
Updated: 2025-03-21T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
On March 23, 2025, the Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) will face the Alabama Crimson Tide (26-8) in the NCAA Tournament’s second round at Rocket Arena in Cleveland. Alabama is favored by 5.5 points, with an over/under set at 148.5 points.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Mar 23, 2025
Start Time: 6:10 PM EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
Crimson Tide Record: (26-8)
Gaels Record: (29-5)
OPENING ODDS
MARYCA Moneyline: +190
BAMA Moneyline: -232
MARYCA Spread: +5.5
BAMA Spread: -5.5
Over/Under: 149.5
MARYCA
Betting Trends
- Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for Saint Mary’s are not detailed in the available sources.
BAMA
Betting Trends
- Specific recent ATS statistics for Alabama are not detailed in the available sources.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Alabama’s status as a 5.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a closely contested game, considering the contrasting styles of play between the two teams.
MARYCA vs. BAMA
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Barrett over 8.5 Points
LIVE CBB ODDS
CBB ODDS COMPARISON
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Saint Mary's vs Alabama Prediction & Odds:
Free CBB Betting Insights for 3/23/25
The Crimson Tide’s propensity for launching shots from beyond the arc means that Saint Mary’s perimeter defense will be thoroughly tested. Alabama’s ability to convert these opportunities at a high rate could stretch the Gaels’ defense and open up driving lanes for players like Sears. From a betting perspective, Alabama’s status as a 5.5-point favorite reflects the broader expectation that their offensive firepower may outweigh Saint Mary’s defensive capabilities. The over/under set at 148.5 points suggests that bookmakers anticipate a moderately high-scoring affair, likely influenced by Alabama’s scoring average. However, if Saint Mary’s succeeds in dictating a slower pace, the total points could fall below this mark. Historically, matchups between teams with such divergent styles have produced unpredictable outcomes. Saint Mary’s disciplined approach has previously yielded success against higher-seeded teams, as evidenced by their victories over Gonzaga this season. Alabama, while explosive offensively, has occasionally struggled against teams that can effectively control the tempo and limit possessions. In conclusion, this game epitomizes the strategic intricacies that make March Madness so captivating. The outcome will likely be determined by which team can assert its style of play more effectively. If Saint Mary’s can enforce a slower, controlled game and execute their defensive game plan, they stand a strong chance of advancing. However, if Alabama can maintain their offensive pace and efficiency, they may well overpower the Gaels. Fans can anticipate a compelling contest that showcases the contrasting beauty of college basketball’s diverse tactical approaches.
FINAL | SMC 59 - VAN 56
— Saint Mary's Hoops (@saintmaryshoops) March 21, 2025
See y’all Sunday 🏀🔥#GaelsRise pic.twitter.com/KHQjqO57Lo
Saint Mary's Gaels CBB Preview
The Saint Mary’s Gaels enter their NCAA Tournament second-round showdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide with a 29-5 record and a reputation for clinical execution, elite defense, and a methodical approach that has carried them to the top of the West Coast Conference and earned them national respect as one of the most disciplined programs in the country under head coach Randy Bennett, who has turned the Gaels into a perennial tournament team despite operating outside the Power Five spotlight. Saint Mary’s plays a contrasting style to their upcoming opponent, preferring to slow the game to a crawl, utilize every second of the shot clock, and capitalize on their ability to grind opponents down through physical defense and half-court efficiency, a strategy that has led them to allow just 60.5 points per game—ranking among the best in the nation in scoring defense. At the heart of the Gaels’ success is junior point guard Augustas Marciulionis, a savvy floor general averaging 14.3 points and nearly 5 assists per game who controls tempo better than almost any player in the tournament field; his poise and decision-making in high-pressure moments are exactly what Saint Mary’s needs against a frenetic Alabama team that thrives on chaos and scoring spurts. Alongside Marciulionis, sophomore Jordan Ross provides two-way energy, facilitating offense and locking up perimeter assignments, while inside, the Gaels rely on rugged forward Mitchell Saxen to anchor their interior presence—his rebounding and shot-blocking key to protecting the rim and limiting second-chance opportunities.
The Gaels’ offense may not be flashy, but it is ruthlessly effective: they shoot a solid percentage from three, capitalize on opponents’ mistakes, and rarely turn the ball over, ranking near the top nationally in turnover rate. Their first-round win over Vanderbilt was a showcase in composure and execution, highlighted by Marciulionis’ control of the pace and the team’s ability to clamp down defensively in the second half. Against Alabama, the Gaels will need to be sharp from the opening tip, as any early deficit could put them in a position where they’re forced to speed up—a pace that favors the Crimson Tide. Defensively, Saint Mary’s will prioritize running Alabama off the three-point line, staying disciplined in closeouts, and forcing Alabama’s playmakers into contested mid-range shots, an area where the Tide are far less efficient. The Gaels also excel in team rebounding, and maintaining control of the boards will be essential to limit transition chances and keep the game at their preferred tempo. While they are underdogs in terms of seeding and public perception, Saint Mary’s brings the type of mature, experienced roster that’s capable of upending explosive teams who aren’t prepared for the grind. Their ability to execute set plays, communicate on defense, and remain calm in late-game situations gives them a legitimate shot at pulling the upset if they can avoid Alabama’s scoring avalanches and turn the game into a possession-by-possession battle. If Marciulionis and company can frustrate Alabama’s guards, force tough shots, and keep turnovers low, the Gaels could very well wear down the Tide and advance to the Sweet 16 in what would be another defining moment for Bennett’s program and a statement for tactical, deliberate basketball in an era dominated by pace and space.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Alabama Crimson Tide CBB Preview
The Alabama Crimson Tide, entering their NCAA Tournament second-round matchup against the Saint Mary’s Gaels with a 26-8 record, have established themselves as an offensive juggernaut under the guidance of head coach Nate Oats. Leading the nation in scoring with an average of 91.1 points per game, Alabama’s offensive philosophy is characterized by a relentless pace, aggressive transition play, and a prolific reliance on three-point shooting. All-America guard Mark Sears serves as the catalyst for this high-octane offense, averaging 18.8 points and five assists over the past ten games. Sears’ ability to penetrate defenses, coupled with his sharp shooting from beyond the arc, makes him a constant threat and a focal point for opposing defenses. Complementing Sears is freshman sensation Aden Holloway, who contributes 11.2 points per game and boasts a 41.4% shooting percentage from three-point range. Holloway’s emergence adds depth to Alabama’s backcourt and provides additional spacing on the floor. The Crimson Tide’s offensive strategy emphasizes quick ball movement, spacing, and an unwavering green light for shooters, resulting in a dynamic and unpredictable attack that can overwhelm opponents. Defensively, Alabama employs an aggressive approach, aiming to force turnovers and convert them into fast-break opportunities. This defensive intensity often fuels their offensive runs, creating momentum swings that can be decisive in games. In their first-round tournament victory, Alabama demonstrated their explosive potential with a commanding offensive display that reaffirmed why they’re considered one of the most dangerous teams remaining in the field, pouring in threes from multiple spots, sharing the basketball effectively, and putting opponents on their heels from the opening tip. The Tide’s approach is not without its risks, however, as their dependence on the three-point shot occasionally leads to streaky performances and cold spells that can allow opponents to hang around or stage comebacks. But Nate Oats has built a team not only with the skill to score in bunches but with the composure to weather adversity—a hallmark of a program that’s made back-to-back deep March runs and is hungry for a breakthrough into the Final Four.
A key to their success against Saint Mary’s will be controlling the tempo; Alabama will look to speed up the game and deny the Gaels the slow, methodical half-court possessions that define their style. To do so, Alabama’s guards must push the pace off makes and misses, crash the boards to initiate fast breaks, and pressure Saint Mary’s ballhandlers to force early decisions and potential turnovers. Beyond Sears and Holloway, Alabama also boasts a strong supporting cast including Rylan Griffen and Grant Nelson, both of whom provide scoring versatility and athleticism on the wings. In the frontcourt, Nelson’s ability to stretch the floor with perimeter shooting draws opposing bigs out of the paint, opening up driving lanes for guards and giving Alabama one of the most offensively spaced floors in college basketball. Defensively, the Tide will need to show discipline, particularly against a team like Saint Mary’s that thrives on exploiting defensive breakdowns and hitting late-clock shots. Rotations must be crisp, switches clean, and transition defense alert, because every possession will count in a game where each team is trying to dictate the pace in completely opposite directions. Alabama’s fanbase is known for showing up in force during March Madness, and the crowd in Cleveland could tilt momentum their way with early scoring runs, something the Tide have used effectively all season to bury teams before halftime. With a blend of veteran leadership, youthful energy, and a coaching staff that knows how to win in March, Alabama will be confident entering this matchup knowing they’ve beaten high-level competition all season and possess the nation’s most potent offense. If they can avoid defensive lapses, limit turnovers, and stay hot from three, they’ll likely be advancing to the Sweet 16 with the kind of emphatic statement that puts the rest of the bracket on notice. But if they underestimate the slower tempo and discipline of Saint Mary’s, the game could turn into a grinder that neutralizes their strengths—making the first 10 minutes of play a critical window for Alabama to establish rhythm, confidence, and scoreboard control that allows them to play their preferred brand of relentless, high-speed basketball.
Round of 32 Prep.#RollTide | #BlueCollarBasketball pic.twitter.com/MeKwBfseey
— Alabama Men’s Basketball (@AlabamaMBB) March 22, 2025
Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Prop Picks (AI)
Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every facet between the Gaels and Crimson Tide and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Saint Mary's’s strength factors between a Gaels team going up against a possibly strong Crimson Tide team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CBB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Saint Mary's vs Alabama picks, computer picks Gaels vs Crimson Tide, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CBB schedule.
Gaels Betting Trends
Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for Saint Mary’s are not detailed in the available sources.
Crimson Tide Betting Trends
Specific recent ATS statistics for Alabama are not detailed in the available sources.
Gaels vs. Crimson Tide Matchup Trends
Alabama’s status as a 5.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a closely contested game, considering the contrasting styles of play between the two teams.
Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Game Info
What time does Saint Mary's vs Alabama start on March 23, 2025?
Saint Mary's vs Alabama starts on March 23, 2025 at 6:10 PM EST.
Where is Saint Mary's vs Alabama being played?
Venue: Rocket Arena.
What are the opening odds for Saint Mary's vs Alabama?
Spread: Alabama -5.5
Moneyline: Saint Mary's +190, Alabama -232
Over/Under: 149.5
What are the records for Saint Mary's vs Alabama?
Saint Mary's: (29-5) | Alabama: (26-8)
What is the AI best bet for Saint Mary's vs Alabama?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Barrett over 8.5 Points. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Saint Mary's vs Alabama trending bets?
Alabama’s status as a 5.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a closely contested game, considering the contrasting styles of play between the two teams.
What are Saint Mary's trending bets?
MARYCA trend: Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for Saint Mary’s are not detailed in the available sources.
What are Alabama trending bets?
BAMA trend: Specific recent ATS statistics for Alabama are not detailed in the available sources.
Where can I find AI Picks for Saint Mary's vs Alabama?
See our latest CBB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Odds
Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Saint Mary's vs Alabama trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Saint Mary's vs Alabama Opening Odds
MARYCA Moneyline:
+190 BAMA Moneyline: -232
MARYCA Spread: +5.5
BAMA Spread: -5.5
Over/Under: 149.5
Saint Mary's vs Alabama Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U |
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CBB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide on March 23, 2025 at Rocket Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CBB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
DRAKE@MIZZOU | DRAKE +6.5 | 53.50% | 2 | WIN |
XAVIER@TEXAS | XAVIER -2.5 | 53.40% | 2 | WIN |
UAB@MEMP | MEMP -3.5 | 54.00% | 2 | WIN |
LVILLE@DUKE | LVILLE +6.5 | 53.10% | 2 | LOSS |
ECU@UAB | UAB -5 | 53.60% | 2 | WIN |
PURDUE@MICH | MICH +3 | 54.60% | 3 | WIN |
CLEM@LVILLE | CLEM -120 | 56.10% | 3 | LOSS |
COL@HOU | ANDREJ JAKIMOVSKI PTS + REB + AST - UNDER 15.5 | 53.70% | 2 | LOSS |
FORD@GWASH | FORD +7 | 53.80% | 2 | WIN |
SEATTLE@ABIL | ABIL +6 | 54.50% | 3 | WIN |
BAMAST@TEXSOU | BAMAST -110 | 55.40% | 4 | WIN |
OHIO@TOLEDO | TOLEDO +3 | 56.70% | 4 | WIN |
UVA@GATECH | GATECH +1.5 | 53.70% | 2 | WIN |
COLO@WVU | COLO +7.5 | 53.20% | 2 | WIN |
USC@RUT | USC -115 | 54.00% | 2 | WIN |
TEXAS@VANDY | VANDY -130 | 56.50% | 3 | LOSS |
BUTLER@PROV | BUTLER -115 | 55.20% | 3 | WIN |
IDAHO@MONTANA | MONTANA -6 | 53.50% | 2 | WIN |
TROY@JMAD | TROY -125 | 55.60% | 2 | WIN |
BELMONT@DRAKE | DRAKE -7.5 | 53.50% | 2 | LOSS |
UCSD@UCDAV | UCSD -12.5 | 53.40% | 2 | LOSS |
SIUE@SEMO | SEMO -2.5 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
ALCORN@ARKPB | ARKPB +6.5 | 56.00% | 4 | WIN |
NORFLK@HOWARD | HOWARD +5.5 | 53.70% | 2 | LOSS |
NKY@CLEVST | NKY +4.5 | 54.40% | 3 | LOSS |
STNFRD@ND | STNFRD -125 | 56.40% | 3 | LOSS |
TENN@OLEMISS | OLEMISS +2.5 | 54.30% | 3 | WIN |
LSALLE@GMASON | GMASON -12 | 54.30% | 3 | LOSS |
PITT@NCST | NCST +2.5 | 56.70% | 4 | WIN |
IND@OREG | OREG -6.5 | 53.60% | 2 | WIN |
FSU@UVA | UVA -4 | 54.40% | 3 | LOSS |
ARK@VANDY | ARK +7.5 | 54.40% | 3 | WIN |
SDGST@UNLV | UNLV +2.5 | 54.10% | 3 | WIN |
EKTY@JVILLE | JVILLE -135 | 58.90% | 3 | WIN |
MANHAT@NIAGARA | MANHAT -115 | 54.70% | 3 | WIN |
MEMP@UAB | MEMP -115 | 54.90% | 3 | WIN |
ILL@MICH | MICH -2.5 | 56.00% | 4 | LOSS |
OKLA@OLEMISS | OKLA +7.5 | 54.50% | 3 | WIN |
ARIZST@UTAH | ARIZST +8.5 | 54.60% | 3 | LOSS |
GC@SEATTLE | GC -110 | 55.00% | 3 | WIN |
PENN@CLMBIA | CLMBIA -122 | 57.50% | 4 | LOSS |
IONA@NIAGARA | NIAGARA +1.5 | 54.30% | 3 | LOSS |
MARIST@SACHRT | SACHRT -120 | 55.40% | 3 | WIN |
CLEVST@WRIGHT | CLEVST +1.5 | 54.30% | 3 | LOSS |
NDAK@STTHOM | STTHOM -10 | 54.30% | 3 | WIN |
USD@WASHST | WASHST -12.5 | 55.20% | 4 | LOSS |
CSBAK@LBEACH | CSBAK -130 | 59.70% | 4 | WIN |
BU@LEHIGH | LEHIGH -135 | 57.70% | 3 | LOSS |
DUQ@LSALLE | DUQ -125 | 56.70% | 3 | WIN |
BYU@ARIZST | ARIZST +7.5 | 54.60% | 3 | LOSS |
UTAHST@BOISE | BOISE -4 | 55.50% | 4 | WIN |