New Mexico vs Mich. State Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CBB Lines & Props (Mar 23)
Updated: 2025-03-21T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
On March 23, 2025, the New Mexico Lobos (26-7) will face the Michigan State Spartans (28-5) in the NCAA Tournament’s second round. Michigan State is favored by 7.5 points, with an over/under set at 146.5 points.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Mar 23, 2025
Start Time: 8:40 PM EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
Spartans Record: (28-6)
Lobos Record: (27-7)
OPENING ODDS
NMEX Moneyline: +263
MICHST Moneyline: -329
NMEX Spread: +7.5
MICHST Spread: -7.5
Over/Under: 148.5
NMEX
Betting Trends
- Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for New Mexico are not detailed in the available sources.
MICHST
Betting Trends
- Specific recent ATS statistics for Michigan State are not detailed in the available sources.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Michigan State’s status as a 7.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a competitive game, considering both teams’ recent performances.
NMEX vs. MICHST
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Holloman under 11.5 Points
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New Mexico vs Mich. State Prediction & Odds:
Free CBB Betting Insights for 3/23/25
Their offensive strategy emphasizes quick ball movement and exploiting defensive mismatches, allowing them to maintain a high scoring output. Defensively, they allow 70.8 points per game, indicating a preference for high-scoring affairs. Conversely, the Spartans excel in controlling the game’s pace, utilizing their defensive prowess to dictate terms. Their ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities and force low-percentage shots has been a cornerstone of their success. Offensively, they exhibit a methodical approach, focusing on efficient shot selection and minimizing turnovers. Their rebounding strength is notable, averaging 40.0 rebounds per game, which not only limits second-chance opportunities for opponents but also facilitates their transition offense. The battle between New Mexico’s high-octane offense and Michigan State’s disciplined defense will be central to the game’s outcome. The Lobos’ ability to penetrate the Spartans’ defensive schemes and maintain their scoring efficiency will be tested. Similarly, Michigan State’s capacity to neutralize New Mexico’s offensive threats while capitalizing on their own scoring opportunities will be crucial. Betting lines have positioned Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite, with an over/under set at 146.5 points, suggesting expectations of a moderately high-scoring game. Bettors may find value in considering each team’s contrasting styles and recent performances. New Mexico’s momentum and offensive firepower present a compelling case against the spread, while Michigan State’s defensive solidity and tournament experience could justify their favored status. In conclusion, this matchup epitomizes the allure of March Madness, where emerging programs like New Mexico challenge established titans such as Michigan State. The game’s outcome will hinge on which team can impose its style of play and execute its game plan more effectively. Fans can anticipate a thrilling contest that embodies the unpredictability and excitement synonymous with the NCAA Tournament.
Here are the Players of the Day for Day 3⃣!!!
— New Mexico Football (@UNMLoboFB) March 14, 2025
🔨: @Isillemon03
O: @JamesLaubstein
D: Marcus Stevens
ST: Jon Johnson#GoLobos | 🐺🆙 pic.twitter.com/i7RbJQ2GEJ
New Mexico Lobos CBB Preview
The New Mexico Lobos arrive at their NCAA Tournament second-round showdown with the Michigan State Spartans riding high after an electrifying first-round upset of No. 2 seed Marquette, marking one of the biggest wins in program history and a defining moment for head coach Richard Pitino, who has orchestrated an impressive turnaround in Albuquerque and now stands one victory away from sending the Lobos to their first Sweet 16 since 1974, thanks in large part to a 26-7 campaign built on speed, shot-making, and relentless effort on both ends of the court. The team is spearheaded by dynamic sophomore guard Donovan Dent, whose offensive brilliance and playmaking poise have made him the heartbeat of this Lobos roster, averaging 15.2 points and 5.5 assists per game while consistently breaking down defenses with his shiftiness and court vision. Dent’s ability to generate offense in both the half-court and transition sets the tone, but he’s far from alone, as the Lobos also boast a physically imposing frontcourt led by Nelly Junior Joseph, the Iona transfer who dominated the paint in New Mexico’s Mountain West Tournament run and continues to be a force on the glass and defensively, posting 12.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Complementing that inside-out combination is senior guard Jaelen House, one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders in the country, who leads the team in steals and provides veteran leadership, energy, and clutch shot-making—his late-game presence being pivotal to their recent success. With an offense averaging just over 80 points per game and a defense that thrives on creating turnovers and speeding up opponents, the Lobos are a stylistic clash for a Michigan State team that prefers control, discipline, and a grind-it-out pace.
New Mexico thrives in transition, feasting off defensive stops and live-ball turnovers, and they will look to push the tempo against a Spartan defense that, while elite, may not be as equipped to handle multiple ballhandlers attacking off the dribble or bigs who can rim-run after every rebound. Pitino’s approach has emphasized spacing and movement, creating driving lanes for Dent and open looks for shooters like freshman forward Tru Washington, whose emergence as a perimeter threat has given the Lobos an added layer of offensive unpredictability. Defensively, the Lobos will need to be sharp in their rotations, particularly against Michigan State’s veteran guards, and limiting second-chance points will be essential—an area they’ve improved in thanks to Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil’s rebounding presence. The emotional lift from the Marquette win has clearly galvanized the team, and with the confidence gained from knocking off a top-seeded program, New Mexico enters this matchup as a dangerous underdog, fully capable of dictating tempo and forcing the Spartans out of their comfort zone. A victory would not only extend an unforgettable season but also cement the Lobos as one of the nation’s true breakout stories of March, proving that with the right mix of athleticism, experience, and belief, mid-majors can still shake up the blueblood hierarchy in college basketball’s most thrilling month.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Mich. State Spartans CBB Preview
The Michigan State Spartans, under the seasoned leadership of head coach Tom Izzo, enter their NCAA Tournament second-round matchup against the New Mexico Lobos with a formidable 28-5 record, reflecting a season marked by resilience, strategic excellence, and a commitment to both offensive and defensive prowess. The Spartans have consistently demonstrated their ability to perform at the highest level, with a balanced offensive attack that averages 78.4 points per game, showcasing their efficiency and adaptability in various game situations. Defensively, Michigan State has been exceptional, holding opponents to an average of 67.0 points per game, resulting in an impressive average scoring margin of +11.4. This defensive strength is further highlighted by their ability to limit opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking them among the elite defensive teams nationally. A cornerstone of the Spartans’ success has been their dominance on the boards, averaging 40.0 rebounds per game, which not only limits second-chance opportunities for opponents but also fuels their transition offense. The team’s offensive strategy is characterized by efficient shot selection, disciplined ball movement, and a strong inside-out approach that enables Michigan State to control the tempo and dictate the flow of the game, particularly against opponents who favor a faster pace like New Mexico. Veteran leadership has been a defining trait for this year’s Spartans team, with experienced guards like Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard providing stability, poise, and scoring at crucial moments. Walker, a senior with tournament experience, has been a consistent offensive weapon, averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting nearly 40% from three-point range, and his ability to create his own shot late in the clock or in isolation gives Michigan State a reliable scoring outlet when possessions break down.
Hoggard complements him with physicality and playmaking, often initiating offense through pick-and-roll action and getting downhill to collapse defenses and kick to open shooters. Inside, forward Malik Hall has given the Spartans a tough, physical presence capable of scoring in the paint and defending multiple positions, and when paired with center Mady Sissoko, Michigan State’s frontcourt becomes a formidable rebounding and rim-protecting tandem. Coach Izzo has once again molded a team that plays with grit, intelligence, and a commitment to fundamentals, and his tactical adjustments—especially in the tournament setting—have historically given the Spartans an edge. Michigan State’s game plan against New Mexico will focus heavily on limiting transition opportunities, forcing the Lobos to operate in the half court where the Spartans’ switching defense and physical guards can pressure the ball and contest every shot. Key to this will be limiting the impact of New Mexico guard Donovan Dent, whose ability to get downhill and attack the basket poses a real threat to teams that struggle with lateral movement or weak rotations. Michigan State will counter this by packing the paint, forcing Dent and his teammates into mid-range looks and tough floaters, and crashing the glass to prevent offensive rebounds and second-chance points. On offense, the Spartans will look to methodically break down New Mexico’s defense through crisp passing, backdoor cuts, and timely three-point shooting, exploiting any mismatches and drawing fouls to get to the line, where they convert at a high clip. The Spartans’ ability to stay composed, manage the shot clock, and execute out-of-timeout plays has been a staple of their success this season, especially in close games. With a deep bench that includes impactful contributors like Tre Holloman and Coen Carr, Michigan State can rotate fresh legs without sacrificing quality or intensity. The crowd advantage in a neutral setting often swings in favor of the Spartans, given their national following and tournament pedigree, and the energy could fuel key scoring runs or defensive stands. Ultimately, Michigan State’s blueprint for victory lies in experience, defense, and execution—if they play their game, limit turnovers, and control the tempo, the Spartans are in prime position to advance to the Sweet 16 once again and extend their coach’s legacy as one of the most consistent and successful in NCAA Tournament history.
STILL DANCING pic.twitter.com/KmsUiWaPCh
— Michigan State Men's Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) March 22, 2025
New Mexico vs. Mich. State Prop Picks (AI)
New Mexico vs. Mich. State Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every past game between the Lobos and Spartans and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most watching on the growing emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on Mich. State’s strength factors between a Lobos team going up against a possibly rested Spartans team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CBB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI New Mexico vs Mich. State picks, computer picks Lobos vs Spartans, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW |
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CBB schedule.
Lobos Betting Trends
Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for New Mexico are not detailed in the available sources.
Spartans Betting Trends
Specific recent ATS statistics for Michigan State are not detailed in the available sources.
Lobos vs. Spartans Matchup Trends
Michigan State’s status as a 7.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a competitive game, considering both teams’ recent performances.
New Mexico vs. Mich. State Game Info
What time does New Mexico vs Mich. State start on March 23, 2025?
New Mexico vs Mich. State starts on March 23, 2025 at 8:40 PM EST.
Where is New Mexico vs Mich. State being played?
Venue: Rocket Arena.
What are the opening odds for New Mexico vs Mich. State?
Spread: Mich. State -7.5
Moneyline: New Mexico +263, Mich. State -329
Over/Under: 148.5
What are the records for New Mexico vs Mich. State?
New Mexico: (27-7) | Mich. State: (28-6)
What is the AI best bet for New Mexico vs Mich. State?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Holloman under 11.5 Points. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are New Mexico vs Mich. State trending bets?
Michigan State’s status as a 7.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a competitive game, considering both teams’ recent performances.
What are New Mexico trending bets?
NMEX trend: Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for New Mexico are not detailed in the available sources.
What are Mich. State trending bets?
MICHST trend: Specific recent ATS statistics for Michigan State are not detailed in the available sources.
Where can I find AI Picks for New Mexico vs Mich. State?
See our latest CBB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
New Mexico vs. Mich. State Odds
Remi is pouring through loads of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the New Mexico vs Mich. State trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
New Mexico vs Mich. State Opening Odds
NMEX Moneyline:
+263 MICHST Moneyline: -329
NMEX Spread: +7.5
MICHST Spread: -7.5
Over/Under: 148.5
New Mexico vs Mich. State Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U |
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CBB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers New Mexico Lobos vs. Mich. State Spartans on March 23, 2025 at Rocket Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CBB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
DRAKE@MIZZOU | DRAKE +6.5 | 53.50% | 2 | WIN |
XAVIER@TEXAS | XAVIER -2.5 | 53.40% | 2 | WIN |
UAB@MEMP | MEMP -3.5 | 54.00% | 2 | WIN |
LVILLE@DUKE | LVILLE +6.5 | 53.10% | 2 | LOSS |
ECU@UAB | UAB -5 | 53.60% | 2 | WIN |
PURDUE@MICH | MICH +3 | 54.60% | 3 | WIN |
CLEM@LVILLE | CLEM -120 | 56.10% | 3 | LOSS |
COL@HOU | ANDREJ JAKIMOVSKI PTS + REB + AST - UNDER 15.5 | 53.70% | 2 | LOSS |
FORD@GWASH | FORD +7 | 53.80% | 2 | WIN |
SEATTLE@ABIL | ABIL +6 | 54.50% | 3 | WIN |
BAMAST@TEXSOU | BAMAST -110 | 55.40% | 4 | WIN |
OHIO@TOLEDO | TOLEDO +3 | 56.70% | 4 | WIN |
UVA@GATECH | GATECH +1.5 | 53.70% | 2 | WIN |
COLO@WVU | COLO +7.5 | 53.20% | 2 | WIN |
USC@RUT | USC -115 | 54.00% | 2 | WIN |
TEXAS@VANDY | VANDY -130 | 56.50% | 3 | LOSS |
BUTLER@PROV | BUTLER -115 | 55.20% | 3 | WIN |
IDAHO@MONTANA | MONTANA -6 | 53.50% | 2 | WIN |
TROY@JMAD | TROY -125 | 55.60% | 2 | WIN |
BELMONT@DRAKE | DRAKE -7.5 | 53.50% | 2 | LOSS |
UCSD@UCDAV | UCSD -12.5 | 53.40% | 2 | LOSS |
SIUE@SEMO | SEMO -2.5 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
ALCORN@ARKPB | ARKPB +6.5 | 56.00% | 4 | WIN |
NORFLK@HOWARD | HOWARD +5.5 | 53.70% | 2 | LOSS |
NKY@CLEVST | NKY +4.5 | 54.40% | 3 | LOSS |
STNFRD@ND | STNFRD -125 | 56.40% | 3 | LOSS |
TENN@OLEMISS | OLEMISS +2.5 | 54.30% | 3 | WIN |
LSALLE@GMASON | GMASON -12 | 54.30% | 3 | LOSS |
PITT@NCST | NCST +2.5 | 56.70% | 4 | WIN |
IND@OREG | OREG -6.5 | 53.60% | 2 | WIN |
FSU@UVA | UVA -4 | 54.40% | 3 | LOSS |
ARK@VANDY | ARK +7.5 | 54.40% | 3 | WIN |
SDGST@UNLV | UNLV +2.5 | 54.10% | 3 | WIN |
EKTY@JVILLE | JVILLE -135 | 58.90% | 3 | WIN |
MANHAT@NIAGARA | MANHAT -115 | 54.70% | 3 | WIN |
MEMP@UAB | MEMP -115 | 54.90% | 3 | WIN |
ILL@MICH | MICH -2.5 | 56.00% | 4 | LOSS |
OKLA@OLEMISS | OKLA +7.5 | 54.50% | 3 | WIN |
ARIZST@UTAH | ARIZST +8.5 | 54.60% | 3 | LOSS |
GC@SEATTLE | GC -110 | 55.00% | 3 | WIN |
PENN@CLMBIA | CLMBIA -122 | 57.50% | 4 | LOSS |
IONA@NIAGARA | NIAGARA +1.5 | 54.30% | 3 | LOSS |
MARIST@SACHRT | SACHRT -120 | 55.40% | 3 | WIN |
CLEVST@WRIGHT | CLEVST +1.5 | 54.30% | 3 | LOSS |
NDAK@STTHOM | STTHOM -10 | 54.30% | 3 | WIN |
USD@WASHST | WASHST -12.5 | 55.20% | 4 | LOSS |
CSBAK@LBEACH | CSBAK -130 | 59.70% | 4 | WIN |
BU@LEHIGH | LEHIGH -135 | 57.70% | 3 | LOSS |
DUQ@LSALLE | DUQ -125 | 56.70% | 3 | WIN |
BYU@ARIZST | ARIZST +7.5 | 54.60% | 3 | LOSS |
UTAHST@BOISE | BOISE -4 | 55.50% | 4 | WIN |