New Mexico vs Mich. State Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CBB Lines & Props (Mar 23)

Updated: 2025-03-21T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

On March 23, 2025, the New Mexico Lobos (26-7) will face the Michigan State Spartans (28-5) in the NCAA Tournament’s second round. Michigan State is favored by 7.5 points, with an over/under set at 146.5 points.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Mar 23, 2025

Start Time: 8:40 PM EST​

Venue: Rocket Arena​

Spartans Record: (28-6)

Lobos Record: (27-7)

OPENING ODDS

NMEX Moneyline: +263

MICHST Moneyline: -329

NMEX Spread: +7.5

MICHST Spread: -7.5

Over/Under: 148.5

NMEX
Betting Trends

  • Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for New Mexico are not detailed in the available sources.

MICHST
Betting Trends

  • Specific recent ATS statistics for Michigan State are not detailed in the available sources.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Michigan State’s status as a 7.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a competitive game, considering both teams’ recent performances.

NMEX vs. MICHST
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Holloman under 11.5 Points

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New Mexico vs Mich. State Prediction & Odds:
Free CBB Betting Insights for 3/23/25

The upcoming NCAA Tournament second-round matchup between the New Mexico Lobos and the Michigan State Spartans on March 23, 2025, presents a compelling narrative of a rising mid-major program challenging a storied basketball powerhouse. The New Mexico Lobos, under the guidance of head coach Richard Pitino, have enjoyed a remarkable season, culminating in a 26-7 record and a significant first-round victory over Marquette. This win not only advanced the Lobos but also marked a historic moment for the Pitino family, as Richard and his father, Rick Pitino of St. John’s, became the first father-son duo to each win a game in the same NCAA Tournament. The Lobos’ success has been anchored by the stellar play of guard Donovan Dent, whose leadership and scoring ability have been pivotal throughout the season. In their recent Mountain West Tournament quarterfinal victory over San Jose State, Dent led all scorers with 25 points, showcasing his offensive versatility and poise under pressure. Complementing Dent is forward Nelly Junior Joseph, who recorded a double-double in the same game with 14 points and 18 rebounds, underscoring his dominance in the paint and on the boards. On the other side, the Michigan State Spartans, led by veteran coach Tom Izzo, have compiled an impressive 28-5 record, reflecting their consistent excellence and resilience. The Spartans’ season has been characterized by a balanced offensive attack and a staunch defensive presence. They average 78.4 points per game while holding opponents to 67.0 points, resulting in a robust average scoring margin of +11.4. Their defensive efficacy is further highlighted by limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking them among the nation’s elite defensive units. A critical aspect of this matchup will be the contrasting styles of play. The Lobos thrive in an up-tempo game, leveraging their athleticism and offensive fluidity to average 80.0 points per contest.

Their offensive strategy emphasizes quick ball movement and exploiting defensive mismatches, allowing them to maintain a high scoring output. Defensively, they allow 70.8 points per game, indicating a preference for high-scoring affairs. Conversely, the Spartans excel in controlling the game’s pace, utilizing their defensive prowess to dictate terms. Their ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities and force low-percentage shots has been a cornerstone of their success. Offensively, they exhibit a methodical approach, focusing on efficient shot selection and minimizing turnovers. Their rebounding strength is notable, averaging 40.0 rebounds per game, which not only limits second-chance opportunities for opponents but also facilitates their transition offense. The battle between New Mexico’s high-octane offense and Michigan State’s disciplined defense will be central to the game’s outcome. The Lobos’ ability to penetrate the Spartans’ defensive schemes and maintain their scoring efficiency will be tested. Similarly, Michigan State’s capacity to neutralize New Mexico’s offensive threats while capitalizing on their own scoring opportunities will be crucial. Betting lines have positioned Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite, with an over/under set at 146.5 points, suggesting expectations of a moderately high-scoring game. Bettors may find value in considering each team’s contrasting styles and recent performances. New Mexico’s momentum and offensive firepower present a compelling case against the spread, while Michigan State’s defensive solidity and tournament experience could justify their favored status. In conclusion, this matchup epitomizes the allure of March Madness, where emerging programs like New Mexico challenge established titans such as Michigan State. The game’s outcome will hinge on which team can impose its style of play and execute its game plan more effectively. Fans can anticipate a thrilling contest that embodies the unpredictability and excitement synonymous with the NCAA Tournament.

New Mexico Lobos CBB Preview

The New Mexico Lobos arrive at their NCAA Tournament second-round showdown with the Michigan State Spartans riding high after an electrifying first-round upset of No. 2 seed Marquette, marking one of the biggest wins in program history and a defining moment for head coach Richard Pitino, who has orchestrated an impressive turnaround in Albuquerque and now stands one victory away from sending the Lobos to their first Sweet 16 since 1974, thanks in large part to a 26-7 campaign built on speed, shot-making, and relentless effort on both ends of the court. The team is spearheaded by dynamic sophomore guard Donovan Dent, whose offensive brilliance and playmaking poise have made him the heartbeat of this Lobos roster, averaging 15.2 points and 5.5 assists per game while consistently breaking down defenses with his shiftiness and court vision. Dent’s ability to generate offense in both the half-court and transition sets the tone, but he’s far from alone, as the Lobos also boast a physically imposing frontcourt led by Nelly Junior Joseph, the Iona transfer who dominated the paint in New Mexico’s Mountain West Tournament run and continues to be a force on the glass and defensively, posting 12.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Complementing that inside-out combination is senior guard Jaelen House, one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders in the country, who leads the team in steals and provides veteran leadership, energy, and clutch shot-making—his late-game presence being pivotal to their recent success. With an offense averaging just over 80 points per game and a defense that thrives on creating turnovers and speeding up opponents, the Lobos are a stylistic clash for a Michigan State team that prefers control, discipline, and a grind-it-out pace.

New Mexico thrives in transition, feasting off defensive stops and live-ball turnovers, and they will look to push the tempo against a Spartan defense that, while elite, may not be as equipped to handle multiple ballhandlers attacking off the dribble or bigs who can rim-run after every rebound. Pitino’s approach has emphasized spacing and movement, creating driving lanes for Dent and open looks for shooters like freshman forward Tru Washington, whose emergence as a perimeter threat has given the Lobos an added layer of offensive unpredictability. Defensively, the Lobos will need to be sharp in their rotations, particularly against Michigan State’s veteran guards, and limiting second-chance points will be essential—an area they’ve improved in thanks to Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil’s rebounding presence. The emotional lift from the Marquette win has clearly galvanized the team, and with the confidence gained from knocking off a top-seeded program, New Mexico enters this matchup as a dangerous underdog, fully capable of dictating tempo and forcing the Spartans out of their comfort zone. A victory would not only extend an unforgettable season but also cement the Lobos as one of the nation’s true breakout stories of March, proving that with the right mix of athleticism, experience, and belief, mid-majors can still shake up the blueblood hierarchy in college basketball’s most thrilling month.

On March 23, 2025, the New Mexico Lobos (26-7) will face the Michigan State Spartans (28-5) in the NCAA Tournament’s second round. Michigan State is favored by 7.5 points, with an over/under set at 146.5 points. New Mexico vs Mich. State AI Prediction: Free CBB Betting Insights for Mar 23. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Mich. State Spartans CBB Preview

The Michigan State Spartans, under the seasoned leadership of head coach Tom Izzo, enter their NCAA Tournament second-round matchup against the New Mexico Lobos with a formidable 28-5 record, reflecting a season marked by resilience, strategic excellence, and a commitment to both offensive and defensive prowess. The Spartans have consistently demonstrated their ability to perform at the highest level, with a balanced offensive attack that averages 78.4 points per game, showcasing their efficiency and adaptability in various game situations. Defensively, Michigan State has been exceptional, holding opponents to an average of 67.0 points per game, resulting in an impressive average scoring margin of +11.4. This defensive strength is further highlighted by their ability to limit opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking them among the elite defensive teams nationally. A cornerstone of the Spartans’ success has been their dominance on the boards, averaging 40.0 rebounds per game, which not only limits second-chance opportunities for opponents but also fuels their transition offense. The team’s offensive strategy is characterized by efficient shot selection, disciplined ball movement, and a strong inside-out approach that enables Michigan State to control the tempo and dictate the flow of the game, particularly against opponents who favor a faster pace like New Mexico. Veteran leadership has been a defining trait for this year’s Spartans team, with experienced guards like Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard providing stability, poise, and scoring at crucial moments. Walker, a senior with tournament experience, has been a consistent offensive weapon, averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting nearly 40% from three-point range, and his ability to create his own shot late in the clock or in isolation gives Michigan State a reliable scoring outlet when possessions break down.

Hoggard complements him with physicality and playmaking, often initiating offense through pick-and-roll action and getting downhill to collapse defenses and kick to open shooters. Inside, forward Malik Hall has given the Spartans a tough, physical presence capable of scoring in the paint and defending multiple positions, and when paired with center Mady Sissoko, Michigan State’s frontcourt becomes a formidable rebounding and rim-protecting tandem. Coach Izzo has once again molded a team that plays with grit, intelligence, and a commitment to fundamentals, and his tactical adjustments—especially in the tournament setting—have historically given the Spartans an edge. Michigan State’s game plan against New Mexico will focus heavily on limiting transition opportunities, forcing the Lobos to operate in the half court where the Spartans’ switching defense and physical guards can pressure the ball and contest every shot. Key to this will be limiting the impact of New Mexico guard Donovan Dent, whose ability to get downhill and attack the basket poses a real threat to teams that struggle with lateral movement or weak rotations. Michigan State will counter this by packing the paint, forcing Dent and his teammates into mid-range looks and tough floaters, and crashing the glass to prevent offensive rebounds and second-chance points. On offense, the Spartans will look to methodically break down New Mexico’s defense through crisp passing, backdoor cuts, and timely three-point shooting, exploiting any mismatches and drawing fouls to get to the line, where they convert at a high clip. The Spartans’ ability to stay composed, manage the shot clock, and execute out-of-timeout plays has been a staple of their success this season, especially in close games. With a deep bench that includes impactful contributors like Tre Holloman and Coen Carr, Michigan State can rotate fresh legs without sacrificing quality or intensity. The crowd advantage in a neutral setting often swings in favor of the Spartans, given their national following and tournament pedigree, and the energy could fuel key scoring runs or defensive stands. Ultimately, Michigan State’s blueprint for victory lies in experience, defense, and execution—if they play their game, limit turnovers, and control the tempo, the Spartans are in prime position to advance to the Sweet 16 once again and extend their coach’s legacy as one of the most consistent and successful in NCAA Tournament history.

New Mexico vs. Mich. State Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each player. In fact, anytime the Lobos and Spartans play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Rocket Arena in Mar almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Holloman under 11.5 Points

New Mexico vs. Mich. State Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every past game between the Lobos and Spartans and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most watching on the growing emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on Mich. State’s strength factors between a Lobos team going up against a possibly rested Spartans team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CBB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI New Mexico vs Mich. State picks, computer picks Lobos vs Spartans, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CBB schedule.

Lobos Betting Trends

Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for New Mexico are not detailed in the available sources.

Spartans Betting Trends

Specific recent ATS statistics for Michigan State are not detailed in the available sources.

Lobos vs. Spartans Matchup Trends

Michigan State’s status as a 7.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a competitive game, considering both teams’ recent performances.

New Mexico vs. Mich. State Game Info

New Mexico vs Mich. State starts on March 23, 2025 at 8:40 PM EST.

Spread: Mich. State -7.5
Moneyline: New Mexico +263, Mich. State -329
Over/Under: 148.5

New Mexico: (27-7)  |  Mich. State: (28-6)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Holloman under 11.5 Points. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Michigan State’s status as a 7.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a competitive game, considering both teams’ recent performances.

NMEX trend: Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for New Mexico are not detailed in the available sources.

MICHST trend: Specific recent ATS statistics for Michigan State are not detailed in the available sources.

See our latest CBB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

New Mexico vs. Mich. State Odds

Remi is pouring through loads of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the New Mexico vs Mich. State trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.

New Mexico vs Mich. State Opening Odds

NMEX Moneyline: +263
MICHST Moneyline: -329
NMEX Spread: +7.5
MICHST Spread: -7.5
Over/Under: 148.5

New Mexico vs Mich. State Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U

CBB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers New Mexico Lobos vs. Mich. State Spartans on March 23, 2025 at Rocket Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CBB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
DRAKE@MIZZOU DRAKE +6.5 53.50% 2 WIN
XAVIER@TEXAS XAVIER -2.5 53.40% 2 WIN
UAB@MEMP MEMP -3.5 54.00% 2 WIN
LVILLE@DUKE LVILLE +6.5 53.10% 2 LOSS
ECU@UAB UAB -5 53.60% 2 WIN
PURDUE@MICH MICH +3 54.60% 3 WIN
CLEM@LVILLE CLEM -120 56.10% 3 LOSS
COL@HOU ANDREJ JAKIMOVSKI PTS + REB + AST - UNDER 15.5 53.70% 2 LOSS
FORD@GWASH FORD +7 53.80% 2 WIN
SEATTLE@ABIL ABIL +6 54.50% 3 WIN
BAMAST@TEXSOU BAMAST -110 55.40% 4 WIN
OHIO@TOLEDO TOLEDO +3 56.70% 4 WIN
UVA@GATECH GATECH +1.5 53.70% 2 WIN
COLO@WVU COLO +7.5 53.20% 2 WIN
USC@RUT USC -115 54.00% 2 WIN
TEXAS@VANDY VANDY -130 56.50% 3 LOSS
BUTLER@PROV BUTLER -115 55.20% 3 WIN
IDAHO@MONTANA MONTANA -6 53.50% 2 WIN
TROY@JMAD TROY -125 55.60% 2 WIN
BELMONT@DRAKE DRAKE -7.5 53.50% 2 LOSS
UCSD@UCDAV UCSD -12.5 53.40% 2 LOSS
SIUE@SEMO SEMO -2.5 54.80% 3 LOSS
ALCORN@ARKPB ARKPB +6.5 56.00% 4 WIN
NORFLK@HOWARD HOWARD +5.5 53.70% 2 LOSS
NKY@CLEVST NKY +4.5 54.40% 3 LOSS
STNFRD@ND STNFRD -125 56.40% 3 LOSS
TENN@OLEMISS OLEMISS +2.5 54.30% 3 WIN
LSALLE@GMASON GMASON -12 54.30% 3 LOSS
PITT@NCST NCST +2.5 56.70% 4 WIN
IND@OREG OREG -6.5 53.60% 2 WIN
FSU@UVA UVA -4 54.40% 3 LOSS
ARK@VANDY ARK +7.5 54.40% 3 WIN
SDGST@UNLV UNLV +2.5 54.10% 3 WIN
EKTY@JVILLE JVILLE -135 58.90% 3 WIN
MANHAT@NIAGARA MANHAT -115 54.70% 3 WIN
MEMP@UAB MEMP -115 54.90% 3 WIN
ILL@MICH MICH -2.5 56.00% 4 LOSS
OKLA@OLEMISS OKLA +7.5 54.50% 3 WIN
ARIZST@UTAH ARIZST +8.5 54.60% 3 LOSS
GC@SEATTLE GC -110 55.00% 3 WIN
PENN@CLMBIA CLMBIA -122 57.50% 4 LOSS
IONA@NIAGARA NIAGARA +1.5 54.30% 3 LOSS
MARIST@SACHRT SACHRT -120 55.40% 3 WIN
CLEVST@WRIGHT CLEVST +1.5 54.30% 3 LOSS
NDAK@STTHOM STTHOM -10 54.30% 3 WIN
USD@WASHST WASHST -12.5 55.20% 4 LOSS
CSBAK@LBEACH CSBAK -130 59.70% 4 WIN
BU@LEHIGH LEHIGH -135 57.70% 3 LOSS
DUQ@LSALLE DUQ -125 56.70% 3 WIN
BYU@ARIZST ARIZST +7.5 54.60% 3 LOSS
UTAHST@BOISE BOISE -4 55.50% 4 WIN