The Illinois Fighting Illini, under the leadership of head coach Brad Underwood, enter the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, boasting a 21-12 record that reflects a season marked by both impressive triumphs and challenging setbacks. Offensively, the Illini have been a force to reckon with, leading the Big Ten Conference by averaging 83.8 points per game and maintaining a shooting accuracy of 45.0%. Their offensive strategy is characterized by a fast-paced tempo, emphasizing quick transitions and a high volume of three-point attempts. This approach has allowed them to outpace opponents and capitalize on defensive mismatches. Key to Illinois’ offensive success is senior forward Will Riley, who has emerged as the Illini’s most consistent and dynamic scoring option, averaging 18.4 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while serving as a versatile inside-out threat who can score on the block, hit midrange jumpers, and stretch the floor from beyond the arc. Riley’s leadership and poise in late-game situations have been essential in securing key wins throughout the season, including notable victories over Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. Complementing Riley is point guard Ty Rodgers, a strong, athletic floor general who pushes the pace in transition and uses his vision and defensive instincts to control the tempo on both ends of the floor. Rodgers averages 11.9 points and 6.1 assists per game, and his ability to get into the paint and draw help defenders opens up clean looks for shooters like Luke Goode and Justin Harmon, both of whom shoot above 37% from three-point range. Defensively, Illinois employs a hybrid approach, often switching between man and zone to keep opponents off balance, while using their length and athleticism to close out on shooters and protect the rim. Center Dain Dainja plays a crucial role in anchoring the paint, averaging 1.8 blocks and 6.9 rebounds, and his physicality will be vital in combating Xavier’s post presence and limiting second-chance points.

However, despite their strong metrics, Illinois has struggled with consistency, particularly on the defensive end where lapses in rotations and overhelping have allowed efficient three-point shooting teams to exploit them—something that could be problematic against a Xavier team that ranks among the nation’s top 20 in three-point efficiency. Another area of concern is ball security, as the Illini have had games where careless turnovers disrupted offensive rhythm and led to transition points for opponents. Still, when clicking, Illinois can be one of the most explosive and difficult teams to guard in the country, especially when their shooters are connecting and their defense is active and engaged. In tournament play, the Illini have a mixed recent history, and Coach Underwood enters this March with the weight of expectations, looking to guide Illinois past the first weekend for the first time in over a decade. Playing in Milwaukee may give them a mild regional advantage with fans expected to travel in strong numbers, and the team’s depth—featuring valuable minutes from reserves like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Sencire Harris—gives Underwood flexibility in matchups and defensive alignments. From a betting perspective, Illinois’ 16-17 record against the spread (ATS) reflects their up-and-down nature, though their offensive ceiling gives them the ability to blow games open when their shooting is on point. To advance, the Illini must limit Xavier’s three-point looks, dominate the glass, and execute efficiently in half-court sets, especially late in the shot clock where mistakes are magnified in March. If Riley sets the tone early and the defense tightens up, Illinois has all the ingredients to justify their seeding and make a statement in the tournament opener against a capable, confident Xavier squad.