The New York Islanders, currently sitting at 29-28-8, are entering this crucial matchup against the Montreal Canadiens with a sense of urgency, as they fight to keep their playoff hopes alive. Trailing Montreal by just three points for the final Eastern Conference Wild Card spot, this game at UBS Arena on March 20, 2025, presents a must-win scenario for the Islanders. A regulation win would cut the deficit to just one point, significantly increasing their chances of securing a postseason berth. However, a loss would widen the gap to five points, making their playoff pursuit significantly more difficult. With everything on the line, expect the Islanders to come out with intensity and desperation in front of their home crowd. Offensively, the Islanders have relied on a balanced approach, but lack elite scoring depth compared to other playoff contenders. The team averages 2.9 goals per game, ranking in the bottom half of the league, which has been a major issue throughout the season. Mathew Barzal remains the team’s offensive leader, boasting 65 points (22 goals, 43 assists), using his speed, vision, and playmaking abilities to create chances for himself and his linemates. Brock Nelson, a key secondary scorer, has chipped in with 60 points (27 goals, 33 assists), while Anders Lee provides a strong net-front presence with 55 points (24 goals, 31 assists). However, beyond their top line, the Islanders have struggled with consistent goal-scoring, making it crucial for their bottom-six forwards to step up in critical games like this one. Special teams could play a decisive role in this matchup, and the Islanders must take advantage of their power-play opportunities. Their power play is operating at 20%, which is middle of the pack in the NHL, but it has been clicking at a higher rate in recent games. Against a Montreal penalty kill that has struggled at just 76% efficiency, the Islanders must capitalize on their man-advantage situations to gain an edge. However, their penalty kill has been even more of a concern, sitting at 79%, meaning they must stay disciplined and avoid unnecessary penalties, as Montreal has weapons on the power play that could hurt them. Defensively, the Islanders have been solid but not dominant, allowing 2.8 goals per game, which ranks near the league average. Their blue line, anchored by Noah Dobson and Adam Pelech, has been effective at limiting high-danger scoring chances, but turnovers in the defensive zone have been an ongoing issue.

Ryan Pulock and Alexander Romanov have provided physicality and stability, but the Islanders have struggled against fast, transition-heavy teams, something Montreal could look to exploit with their quick, young forward group. The Islanders must clog the neutral zone, play a structured defensive game, and prevent Montreal from utilizing their speed advantage. Goaltending has been one of the Islanders’ strongest assets, with Ilya Sorokin continuing to be the backbone of the team. The Russian netminder has posted a .918 save percentage and a 2.50 goals-against average, keeping the Islanders competitive even when their offense has failed to provide much support. Against a Canadiens team that averages just 2.8 goals per game, Sorokin will likely be tested but should have the upper hand if the Islanders’ defense provides proper support. If Sorokin is sharp and limits rebounds, he could make life extremely difficult for Montreal’s inconsistent offense. From a betting perspective, the Islanders have been mediocre against the spread (ATS), covering in only 50% of their games. However, at home, they have been stronger, winning five of their last eight home games. The over/under for this game is set at 5.5 goals, and recent trends suggest a low-scoring affair, with four of the last five meetings between these two teams hitting the under. The Canadiens have struggled on the road, making the Islanders a slight betting favorite heading into this matchup. For the Islanders to secure this pivotal win, they must focus on playing a structured, mistake-free game, limiting Montreal’s transition game, and capitalizing on their power-play chances. Sorokin will be key, and if he can hold Montreal to two goals or fewer, the Islanders should be in a strong position to earn two points. A fast start will also be essential, as falling behind early could force them to play catch-up hockey, something they have struggled with this season. With the playoffs within reach, the Islanders must treat this game as a do-or-die scenario. If they execute their defensive game plan, get timely scoring from their depth players, and rely on Sorokin to shut down Montreal’s attack, they should have a strong chance of earning a crucial two points. However, if they allow Montreal to control the pace, struggle with defensive-zone turnovers, or fail to convert on scoring chances, their playoff hopes could take a major hit. The home crowd will play a significant role, and if the Islanders feed off that energy, expect them to come out strong and play with playoff-like urgency.