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The upcoming matchup between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 15, 2025, at Scotiabank Arena promises to be a compelling contest between two Atlantic Division rivals with contrasting trajectories this season. The Maple Leafs, boasting a 39-22-3 record, have demonstrated consistent performance, positioning themselves as strong contenders for the playoffs. Their offensive prowess is evident, averaging 3.2 goals per game, which reflects their ability to generate scoring opportunities. Defensively, they have been solid, allowing an average of 2.69 goals per game, indicating a well-structured defensive unit and reliable goaltending. In contrast, the Senators hold a 34-25-5 record, reflecting a season of mixed results as they strive to secure a playoff spot. Their offense has been less potent, averaging 2.84 goals per game, while defensively, they have conceded an average of 2.65 goals per game, suggesting a need for greater offensive consistency to complement their defensive efforts. Historically, the Maple Leafs have held the upper hand in this rivalry, winning six of the past ten encounters, including four of the last five games in Ottawa. However, the Senators have shown resilience, notably securing a 3-0 victory in Toronto on November 12, 2024, marking their third consecutive win against the Maple Leafs at that time. From a betting perspective, the Maple Leafs have a balanced ATS record of 31-31, with a 16-16 mark at home, indicating variability in covering spreads.
The Senators, however, have struggled against the spread, holding a 26-38 record overall, including a 16-18 mark on the road. This disparity suggests that bettors may find more reliability in the Maple Leafs’ performance concerning the spread. Special teams’ performance could play a pivotal role in this matchup. The Maple Leafs’ power play and penalty kill units have been effective, contributing to their overall success. The Senators will need to capitalize on power-play opportunities and maintain discipline to avoid giving the Maple Leafs additional advantages. Goaltending will also be a critical factor. The Maple Leafs’ netminders have provided stability, contributing to their respectable goals-against average. The Senators’ goaltenders will need to be at their best to withstand the Maple Leafs’ offensive pressure. In conclusion, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Maple Leafs to assert their dominance and solidify their playoff positioning, while the Senators aim to defy the odds and enhance their postseason aspirations. Given the Maple Leafs’ balanced ATS record and home-ice advantage, they may have the edge in this contest. However, the Senators’ previous successes against Toronto indicate that an upset is within the realm of possibility, making this an intriguing game for both fans and bettors alike.
A pair of Canadian battles on the road before hosting the Avs highlight the week ahead for the #Sens 👊
— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) March 14, 2025
📰 Read about our upcoming match ups: https://t.co/tDEjstcKcu#GoSensGo | @betwaycanada pic.twitter.com/5oQO5Jrz6L
The Ottawa Senators arrive in Toronto for their March 15, 2025, matchup against the Maple Leafs amidst a challenging but hopeful season, currently holding a record of 34-25-5. Sitting just outside secure playoff positioning, every remaining game carries significant weight for Ottawa’s postseason aspirations. Offensively, the Senators have experienced mixed results, averaging 2.84 goals per game, placing them mid-tier in the NHL scoring rankings. However, their young offensive core, led by dynamic forward Tim Stützle, provides optimism for improvement. Stützle’s exceptional skill set, blending speed, creativity, and scoring touch, has allowed him to consistently lead the Senators in points, creating matchup issues for opposing defenses. Brady Tkachuk, the Senators’ captain, complements Stützle’s style with physical play and a strong net-front presence, providing valuable scoring depth. Despite their talent, Ottawa has frequently struggled with consistency in secondary scoring, often leaving the team overly reliant on their top performers. Defensively, Ottawa has notably improved this season, allowing just 2.65 goals per game, reflecting a more disciplined and cohesive defensive approach. Thomas Chabot remains the cornerstone of the Senators’ blue line, frequently logging substantial ice time while excelling in both offensive and defensive responsibilities. Chabot’s steady presence and puck-moving abilities significantly enhance Ottawa’s capability to transition effectively from defense to offense. Jake Sanderson’s development has also positively impacted Ottawa’s defensive depth, with his maturity and reliable performances helping stabilize the defensive structure.
Between the pipes, veteran goalie Joonas Korpisalo has proven critical to Ottawa’s defensive improvement, consistently providing the Senators with opportunities to secure points through his strong, reliable performances. Korpisalo’s save percentage has consistently remained above .910, indicating his effectiveness in facing high shot volumes and maintaining composure under pressure. Ottawa’s special teams performance has been mixed, with their power play occasionally struggling to find consistency, although capable of timely contributions. The Senators’ penalty kill has generally been effective but has shown vulnerability in critical moments, which has occasionally cost them close games. Facing the Maple Leafs, Ottawa will need to execute flawlessly on special teams to neutralize Toronto’s potent power play. Historically, the Senators have matched up competitively with Toronto, highlighted by their earlier 3-0 shutout win this season. This past success demonstrates Ottawa’s capability to defeat top-tier opponents when playing cohesively and strategically disciplined hockey. To secure another victory against their provincial rivals, Ottawa will require balanced scoring, disciplined defensive execution, and elite-level goaltending from Korpisalo. A victory in Toronto would significantly bolster Ottawa’s playoff chances, providing crucial momentum and confidence, proving their ability to compete strongly in pressure-filled scenarios against elite competition.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter their March 15, 2025, home game against the Ottawa Senators with impressive momentum and a strong standing in the Atlantic Division, posting a record of 39-22-3. Throughout the season, the Maple Leafs have effectively showcased their depth, resilience, and ability to perform consistently against formidable opponents. Offensively, Toronto is among the league’s elite, averaging 3.2 goals per game, largely propelled by their star-studded forward lineup. Auston Matthews, the cornerstone of Toronto’s offense, continues to deliver exceptional performances, leading the team in goal-scoring while providing crucial points at pivotal moments. Matthews’ prolific goal-scoring capabilities are complemented by the dynamic Mitch Marner, whose creativity and playmaking skills have been essential in driving the Leafs’ offensive production. Marner’s vision on the ice consistently sets up scoring opportunities, making Toronto’s top line one of the most feared in the NHL. Additionally, veterans such as William Nylander and John Tavares have consistently provided secondary scoring, ensuring that opponents must account for multiple threats beyond the primary scoring line. Defensively, the Maple Leafs have made considerable strides this season, conceding only 2.69 goals per game, which underscores their structured approach and disciplined positional play. Morgan Rielly has anchored the blue line, demonstrating leadership and reliability, especially in high-pressure scenarios.
His ability to transition play from defense to offense has also been a significant factor in maintaining possession and controlling the game’s tempo. Jake McCabe and Timothy Liljegren have further strengthened Toronto’s defensive unit by providing dependable performances, minimizing turnovers, and ensuring that high-danger chances against their goaltenders are kept to a minimum. The Maple Leafs’ goaltending tandem has also been pivotal, with Joseph Woll emerging as a reliable starter, boasting a solid save percentage above .910, while Ilya Samsonov has provided valuable depth, stepping in effectively when called upon. Special teams have been a critical strength for Toronto, particularly their power play, which consistently capitalizes on opportunities and ranks among the league’s best units. Their penalty kill has also been exceptional, adept at limiting opponents’ power-play effectiveness through aggressive and disciplined play. Heading into this matchup against Ottawa, Toronto is motivated by previous encounters this season, which have been tightly contested battles. Although the Senators managed a shutout victory earlier in the season, Toronto has historically held the upper hand, particularly at home. To secure victory, Toronto will need to leverage their offensive depth, maintain defensive discipline, and capitalize effectively on special teams situations. A win would not only solidify their playoff positioning but also serve as a statement in reinforcing their status as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders as the postseason approaches.
On October 14, 2006, Mats Sundin scored his 500th career goal, but it wasn’t a typical milestone by any measure. With just over four minutes remaining in overtime, Mats wired home a shorthanded slapshot—winning the game, completing his hat trick, and forever cementing himself as… pic.twitter.com/5U5r5wfvJj
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) March 14, 2025
Remi is pouring through loads of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Senators and Maple Leafs play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Scotiabank Arena in Mar rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: T. Chabot over 0.5 Goals Scored
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game between the Senators and Maple Leafs and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the growing emphasis human bettors often put on player performance factors between a Senators team going up against a possibly strong Maple Leafs team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
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