Heat vs Pistons Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (Jan 1)
Updated: 2025-12-30T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Detroit Pistons (home) host the Miami Heat on January 1, 2026, in a key Eastern Conference clash at Little Caesars Arena with Detroit entering as favorites following strong home success this season and Miami aiming to stay competitive in a tight playoff picture. Both teams have split regular‑season matchups, with Detroit leaning more convincingly in recent meetings and Miami showcasing resilience on the road.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Jan 1, 2026
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Little Caesars Arena
Pistons Record: (25-8)
Heat Record: (18-15)
OPENING ODDS
MIA Moneyline: ODDS COMING SOON
DET Moneyline: ODDS COMING SOON
MIA Spread: ODDS COMING SOON
DET Spread: ODDS COMING SOON
Over/Under: ODDS COMING SOON
MIA
Betting Trends
- Miami is 4‑1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games and holds a decent 19‑14 ATS record overall, including a 9‑7 mark on the road, showing they’ve covered the spread frequently despite underdog status.
DET
Betting Trends
- Detroit sits 9‑6 ATS at home and 18‑15 ATS overall, though in their last handful of contests the Pistons’ ATS performance is more moderate (roughly around .500 recently) compared with earlier in the season.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Despite being favorites, the Pistons are 8‑2 ATS in the last 10 head‑to‑head games against Miami, and Miami has been solid covering as an underdog, particularly recently; the total has leaned UNDER in eight of Miami’s last 12 games, suggesting slower second halves might be common.
MIA vs. DET
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: N. Powell under 30.5 PTS+REB+AST.
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Miami vs Detroit Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 1/1/26
The Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat renew their Eastern Conference rivalry on New Year’s Day in a game with meaningful playoff implications and plenty of offensive firepower on both sides. Detroit enters this matchup with one of the best records in the league and confidence bolstered by a convincing 128‑106 home win over the Lakers in their last outing, showcasing elite scoring and efficient execution on both ends of the court. The Pistons have been a top‑tier offensive team this season, averaging around 119 points per game and ranking highly in shooting efficiency, rebounding and defensive disruption. Defensive anchor Jalen Duren and versatile scorer Cade Cunningham give Detroit a balanced attack that has thrived at Little Caesars Arena, where they’ve been particularly dominant. Meanwhile, Duncan Robinson’s acquisition from Miami has bolstered Detroit’s perimeter shooting, giving them even more spacing and three‑point shooting threats to complement their strong inside game. The Pistons’ ability to score from multiple areas and protect the paint makes them a tough cover, especially at home, and they lead the conference in several offensive metrics.
Miami, conversely, comes into Detroit off a spirited stretch that includes a three‑game win streak and an upset over Denver, demonstrating that they can hang with top teams. The Heat’s offense emphasizes spacing, ball movement, and accurate perimeter shooting, and they rank among the league leaders in steals and blocks — an indication of their active defensive principles. In their lone meeting this season, Detroit held off a furious Miami rally to win 138‑135 in Miami, a classic duel that featured explosive scoring from both teams and defensive lapses late that kept things tight. That contest underscores just how evenly matched these squads can be when both offenses are clicking. Matchups to watch include Miami’s ability to limit Detroit’s interior dominance and force contested jump shots, while Detroit will look to exploit mismatches and control the tempo early before Miami’s defense can lock in. Ultimately, Detroit’s depth and home advantage give them a slight edge in what should be a high‑scoring, closely contested New Year’s Day battle.
Get live NBA odds and precise AI NBA picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.
If a ball is hanging around the rim you can count on Kel'el to finish the putback 😤
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) December 31, 2025
For every dunk of ours this season Morgan & Morgan Law Firm will donate $100 to the Miami HEAT Charitable Fund. We're closing out 2025 with $13,300 so far!
Dunks For The People // @forthepeople pic.twitter.com/tQ5kzxB6Wn
Miami Heat NBA Preview
The Miami Heat arrive in Detroit off a strong stretch of basketball, having won multiple games in succession and demonstrated an ability to perform well on the road even without all of their top stars. In one of their most recent outings, Miami posted a convincing 126–111 victory at Atlanta, with Norman Powell leading the way and Pelle Larsson delivering a career‑high scoring performance, underscoring the Heat’s depth and resilience away from home. That win was part of a multi‑game winning streak, including a big 147–123 triumph over Denver where Miami poured in a season‑high 147 points, showing this team can explode offensively even against high‑caliber opponents. These recent results reflect Miami’s capacity to stake leads, sustain pressure, and finish plays efficiently at the offensive end — traits that will be crucial when facing Detroit’s potent scoring attack. Turnovers and defensive intensity, especially on the perimeter, have varied game by game, but when the Heat’s active hands and rotations click, they can disrupt the rhythm of even the league’s better offenses.
Statistically, Miami has shown it can be competitive on the road — their offense remains dangerous, with strong scoring outputs and a willingness to push pace that can force opponents into uncomfortable defensive assignments. They’ve combined solid shooting with opportunistic rebounding and ball movement, enabling them to stay in tight contests and sometimes pull ahead late. However, Detroit’s balanced scoring threats and interior game pose a challenge, meaning Miami’s ability to limit points in the paint and contest threes will be pivotal. Success for the Heat often hinges on execution in late‑game situations, where they’ve shown resilience but also some inconsistency. Controlling tempo, minimizing lapses in focus, and making timely shots will be Miami’s blueprint for an upset or a close cover in this Eastern Conference duel.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Detroit Pistons NBA Preview
The Detroit Pistons enter New Year’s Day action with strong home form, having won a majority of their games at Little Caesars Arena this season and establishing themselves as one of the league’s toughest teams to beat on their own court. Led by Cade Cunningham, who has elevated his playmaking and scoring efficiency, Detroit’s offense is balanced and multifaceted. Cunningham’s ability to create opportunities for teammates and finish in transition makes him a constant threat, while Jalen Duren provides a commanding presence in the paint, both offensively and defensively. This duo has allowed the Pistons to dominate rebounding battles and score efficiently inside, giving them an edge over teams that rely primarily on perimeter shooting. Complementing the stars, Detroit’s role players have contributed timely scoring and defensive support, creating a well-rounded squad that can execute different schemes depending on the matchup. Defensively, Detroit has tightened rotations and improved communication, limiting easy baskets and generating turnovers that lead to fast-break points.
Their home court advantage has amplified these strengths, with the crowd energizing the team during crucial stretches. Detroit has also demonstrated an ability to adjust in-game, exploiting mismatches and controlling tempo to maintain leads. Their ATS record of 9‑6 at home highlights consistency not only in winning but in outperforming expectations, suggesting that they are comfortable handling pressure situations in front of their fans. The Pistons’ challenge will be containing Miami’s versatile offense, which can stretch the floor with outside shooting and ball movement. Limiting open looks and keeping perimeter defenders engaged will be critical, especially in late-game scenarios. If Detroit can enforce paint protection, control pace, and maintain focus throughout all four quarters, they are positioned to secure a decisive home victory. With balanced scoring, improved defense, and strong chemistry, the Pistons aim to assert dominance over the Heat while continuing their push toward a high playoff seed.
Isaiah Stewart had a perfect game from the floor last night...
— Detroit Pistons (@DetroitPistons) December 31, 2025
15 PTS | 6-6 FG | 1-1 3PT | 18 MIN | +21 💪 pic.twitter.com/T3Q5WH4Phu
Miami vs Detroit Prop Picks (AI)
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each team. In fact, anytime the Heat and Pistons play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Little Caesars Arena in Jan seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Miami vs Detroit Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over millions of data from every facet between the Heat and Pistons and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most fixated on the growing factor emotional bettors often put on coaching factors between a Heat team going up against a possibly unhealthy Pistons team. It appears the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NBA AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Miami vs Detroit picks, computer picks Heat vs Pistons, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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| NBA | 3/8 | NY@LAL | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 6 |
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| NBA | 3/8 | HOU@SA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 6 |
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| NBA | 3/8 | ORL@MIL | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 5 |
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| NBA | 3/8 | DET@MIA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 5 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NBA | 3/8 | CHI@SAC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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| NBA | 3/8 | WAS@NO | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 3 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.
Miami Betting Trends
Miami is 4‑1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games and holds a decent 19‑14 ATS record overall, including a 9‑7 mark on the road, showing they’ve covered the spread frequently despite underdog status.
Detroit Betting Trends
Detroit sits 9‑6 ATS at home and 18‑15 ATS overall, though in their last handful of contests the Pistons’ ATS performance is more moderate (roughly around .500 recently) compared with earlier in the season.
Heat vs. Pistons Matchup Trends
Despite being favorites, the Pistons are 8‑2 ATS in the last 10 head‑to‑head games against Miami, and Miami has been solid covering as an underdog, particularly recently; the total has leaned UNDER in eight of Miami’s last 12 games, suggesting slower second halves might be common.
Miami vs. Detroit Game Info
Miami vs Detroit starts on January 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM EST.
Venue: Little Caesars Arena.
Spread: Detroit ODDS COMING SOON
Moneyline: Miami ODDS COMING SOON, Detroit ODDS COMING SOON
Over/Under: ODDS COMING SOON
Miami: (18-15) | Detroit: (25-8)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: N. Powell under 30.5 PTS+REB+AST.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
Despite being favorites, the Pistons are 8‑2 ATS in the last 10 head‑to‑head games against Miami, and Miami has been solid covering as an underdog, particularly recently; the total has leaned UNDER in eight of Miami’s last 12 games, suggesting slower second halves might be common.
MIA trend: Miami is 4‑1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games and holds a decent 19‑14 ATS record overall, including a 9‑7 mark on the road, showing they’ve covered the spread frequently despite underdog status.
DET trend: Detroit sits 9‑6 ATS at home and 18‑15 ATS overall, though in their last handful of contests the Pistons’ ATS performance is more moderate (roughly around .500 recently) compared with earlier in the season.
See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2026 to compare prices before you bet.
Miami vs. Detroit Odds
Remi is pouring through tons of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Miami vs Detroit trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
| MIA Moneyline | ODDS COMING SOON |
|---|---|
| DET Moneyline | ODDS COMING SOON |
| MIA Spread | ODDS COMING SOON |
| DET Spread | ODDS COMING SOON |
| Over / Under | ODDS COMING SOON |
Miami vs Detroit Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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In Progress
Chicago Bulls
Sacramento Kings
In Progress
Bulls
Kings
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103
117
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+2500
-15000
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+12.5 (-130)
-12.5 (-102)
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O 242.5 (-125)
U 242.5 (-106)
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In Progress
Indiana Pacers
Portland Trail Blazers
In Progress
Pacers
Trail Blazers
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105
125
|
+3300
-10000
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+19.5 (+100)
-19.5 (-132)
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O 240.5 (-104)
U 240.5 (-128)
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In Progress
Charlotte Hornets
Phoenix Suns
In Progress
Hornets
Suns
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58
60
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-162
+126
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-1.5 (-138)
+1.5 (+104)
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O 229.5 (+110)
U 229.5 (-146)
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Mar 9, 2026 7:10PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers
3/9/26 7:10PM
76ers
Cavaliers
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–
–
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+385
-500
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+11.5 (-112)
-11.5 (-108)
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O 226.5 (-110)
U 226.5 (-110)
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Mar 9, 2026 7:40PM EDT
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder
3/9/26 7:40PM
Nuggets
Thunder
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–
–
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+230
-280
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+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
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O 230.5 (-114)
U 230.5 (-106)
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Mar 9, 2026 7:40PM EDT
Memphis Grizzlies
Brooklyn Nets
3/9/26 7:40PM
Grizzlies
Nets
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–
–
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-112
-104
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-1 (-106)
+1 (-114)
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O 222.5 (-110)
U 222.5 (-110)
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Mar 9, 2026 9:10PM EDT
Golden State Warriors
Utah Jazz
3/9/26 9:10PM
Warriors
Jazz
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–
–
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-205
+172
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-4.5 (-114)
+4.5 (-106)
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O 227.5 (-110)
U 227.5 (-110)
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Mar 9, 2026 10:10PM EDT
New York Knicks
Los Angeles Clippers
3/9/26 10:10PM
Knicks
Clippers
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–
–
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-142
+120
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-2 (-110)
+2 (-110)
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O 220.5 (-110)
U 220.5 (-110)
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NBA Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons on January 1, 2026 at Little Caesars Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
|
NBA |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CHA | GRANT WILLIAMS OVER 3.5 REB | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| DAL@BOS | JAYSON TATUM OVER 6.5 REB + ASST | 56.2% | 6 | WIN |
| TOR@MIN | TOR +4.5 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| NO@SAC | SAC +6.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| DET@SA | DET +3.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| CHI@PHX | GRAYSON ALLEN OVER 5.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
| LAL@DEN | LEBRON JAMES UNDER 5.5 REB | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
| CHA@BOS | CHA +6.5 | 55.9% | 5 | WIN |
| POR@MEM | MEM +10 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| UTA@PHI | ACE BAILEY OVER 22.5 PTS + REB + ASST | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| ATL@MIL | MYLES TURNER OVER 4.5 REB | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| OKC@CHI | CHI +9.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| NY@TOR | TOR +2.5 | 57.0% | 6 | LOSS |
| PHX@SAC | SAC +9.5 | 54.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| NO@LAL | LEBRON JAMES OVER 7.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 57.4% | 7 | WIN |
| HOU@WAS | ALPEREN SENGUN OVER 5.5 ASST | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| LAC@GS | AL HORFORD OVER 1.5 STEALS + BLOCKS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| BOS@MIL | BOS -7.5 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| MEM@IND | IND +1 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| OKC@DAL | ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 12.5 REB + ASST | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| PHI@BOS | DERRICK WHITE OVER 5.5 ASST | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| POR@CHA | POR +7.5 | 56.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| DEN@OKC | DEN +7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| MEM@DAL | MAX CHRISTIE OVER 5.5 REB + ASST | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| DEN@OKC | CHET HOLMGREN UNDER 8.5 REB | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| SAC@DAL | SAC +7 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| HOU@ORL | JABARI SMITH JR. OVER 4.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| SA@TOR | TOR +7.5 | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
| BOS@DEN | BOS +3.5 | 53.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| SAC@HOU | TARI EASON OVER 23.5 PTS + REB + ASST | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| SA@TOR | DEAARON FOX UNDER 19.5 PTS + REB | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| DAL@BKN | BKN +2.5 | 53.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| GS@NO | NO +1.5 | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
| ORL@LAL | ANTHONY BLACK OVER 3.5 ASST | 56.8% | 6 | WIN |
| SAC@MEM | SCOTTY PIPPEN JR. OVER 3.5 ASST | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
| UTA@HOU | AMEN THOMPSON OVER 6.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| DEN@GS | DEN -6 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| BOS@LAL | BOS -1 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| PHI@MIN | KELLY OUBRE JR. UNDER 5.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| NYK@CHI | JOSH HART OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS + ASSTS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| DET@CHI | CADE CUNNINGHAM OVER 10.5 REB + ASST | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| DET@CHI | AUSAR THOMPSON OVER 2.5 ASSTS | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
| DEN@POR | DEN -115 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| LAC@LAL | KAWHI LEONARD UNDER 33.5 PTS + REB | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| LAC@LAL | LEBRON JAMES OVER 2.5 TURNOVERS | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
| DET@NY | NY -3.5 | 54.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| TOR@CHI | RJ BARRETT OVER 1.5 THREE POINTERS MADE | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| DEN@LAC | DERRICK JONES JR. UNDER 4.5 REB + ASST | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
| LAC@HOU | LAC +9 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
| POR@MIN | JADEN MCDANIELS OVER 21.5 PTS + REB + ASST | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| SA@LAL | VICTOR WEMBANYAMA UNDER 2.5 BLOCKS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
