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The Navy Midshipmen and Air Force Falcons will clash in the first leg of the 2024 Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy competition at Falcon Stadium. Navy comes into this matchup as a clear favorite with an undefeated record, showcasing a powerful triple-option attack led by quarterback Blake Horvath and running back Alex Tecza. The Midshipmen have been able to control the pace of games with their dominant ground game, averaging 287.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks them fifth nationally. Navy’s offense has been efficient, scoring 46 points per game, while their defense has been able to limit opponents to just 23.5 points per contest.
Air Force, on the other hand, has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are 1-3 on the season and are coming off a 31-19 loss to Wyoming. Their offense, led by quarterback John Busha, has been stagnant, averaging just 243 total yards per game. The Falcons’ defense has also been shaky, giving up 425.5 yards per game, including 267.5 passing yards per contest. For Air Force to have any chance of pulling off an upset, they will need to slow down Navy’s running game and capitalize on any mistakes made by the Midshipmen.
only one thing matters this week#GoNavy | #RollGoats pic.twitter.com/PGROEevrK1
— Navy Football (@NavyFB) October 1, 2024
The Navy Midshipmen are having a breakout season, currently sitting at 4-0. The key to their success has been their dominant rushing attack, led by quarterback Blake Horvath and running back Alex Tecza. Navy’s triple-option offense has kept opposing defenses on their heels, and their efficiency has translated into consistent offensive production. The Midshipmen are averaging 287.3 rushing yards per game, controlling the clock and wearing down defenses. Defensively, Navy has been solid but not elite, allowing 23.5 points per game. They have been vulnerable to the pass, giving up 267.5 passing yards per game. Against Air Force, Navy will focus on forcing the Falcons into passing situations, where they have struggled all season. If the Midshipmen can establish their ground game early and limit turnovers, they should be able to secure their fifth win of the season.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
The Air Force Falcons have had a disappointing start to the 2024 season, entering this matchup at 1-3 and winless in conference play. Their offense has struggled to gain momentum, averaging only 9.7 points per game in their three losses. Quarterback John Busha has yet to find a rhythm, and the team’s inability to sustain drives has put added pressure on the defense. The Falcons have averaged just 4.5 yards per carry, and their passing game has been largely ineffective. Defensively, Air Force has been vulnerable, allowing over 425 yards per game and struggling to get off the field on third downs. If the Falcons want to compete against Navy, they will need to step up their defensive effort, particularly in limiting Navy’s powerful ground attack. A key focus for the Falcons will be preventing long, sustained drives that allow the Midshipmen to dominate time of possession.
𝐀𝐍𝐘 𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐂𝐄. 𝐀𝐍𝐘 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄. 𝐀𝐍𝐘𝐖𝐇𝐄𝐑𝐄. pic.twitter.com/VOmVSXHWCa
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) October 1, 2024
Remi is pouring through loads of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Midshipmen and Falcons play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Falcon Stadium in Oct rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.
Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Midshipmen and Falcons and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most fixated on the linear correlation of emphasis human bettors often put on coaching factors between a Midshipmen team going up against a possibly strong Falcons team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.
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