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The Baylor Bears and the Iowa State Cyclones are set to square off in an important Big 12 conference matchup this Saturday. Iowa State enters the game undefeated, boasting a perfect 4-0 record and riding high after a convincing 20-0 win over Houston last week. The Cyclones’ defense has been their cornerstone, allowing just 10.2 points per game, and they rank in the top 15 nationally in several defensive categories. Head coach Matt Campbell has his team playing disciplined football, and Iowa State’s ability to control the tempo and dominate time of possession has been key to their early-season success. Baylor, on the other hand, has had a rough start to the year.
At 2-3, the Bears have struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball. Last week’s 34-28 loss to BYU highlighted some of their issues, as the Bears’ defense gave up over 400 total yards. Quarterback Dequan Finn has shown flashes of brilliance but has been hampered by turnovers and a lack of protection from his offensive line. Baylor’s rushing attack, led by Richard Reese, has been effective at times, but without sustained drives, they’ve often found themselves playing from behind. For Iowa State, the game plan will revolve around keeping the Bears’ offense off the field. Quarterback Rocco Becht has been efficient, managing games well and relying on a powerful rushing attack led by Cartevious Norton. If the Cyclones can establish the run early, it will open up play-action opportunities against a Baylor defense that has struggled to stop the pass. The Cyclones’ defense will aim to pressure Finn and force him into making mistakes, as they’ve thrived on turnovers this season. Overall, Iowa State’s balanced attack and dominant defense make them favorites to maintain their perfect record and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. Meanwhile, Baylor will need to play a nearly flawless game to pull off the upset on the road.
On to Ames. #SicEm pic.twitter.com/iCt5sY37vR
— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) October 1, 2024
The Baylor Bears come into this matchup at 2-3, looking to right the ship after a disappointing loss to BYU. The Bears have been plagued by inconsistencies on both offense and defense. Quarterback Dequan Finn has shown glimpses of his dual-threat capabilities, but turnovers and erratic play have limited his impact. He’s thrown for 1,129 yards and nine touchdowns but has also tossed five interceptions. The offensive line has struggled to provide consistent protection, which has contributed to Finn’s uneven performances. On the ground, Richard Reese has been a key contributor, rushing for 368 yards and four touchdowns. However, without a complementary passing game, opposing defenses have focused on shutting down the run. Baylor’s defense, which is allowing 28.3 points per game, has been unable to make crucial stops. Their secondary, in particular, has been vulnerable, allowing over 250 passing yards per game. For Baylor to have a chance against Iowa State, they must protect the football and find a way to generate explosive plays. If Finn can limit mistakes and the defense can step up, they might keep it close. However, given their recent form, the Bears face an uphill battle against a disciplined Cyclones squad.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
The Iowa State Cyclones have been one of the surprise teams in the Big 12 this season, starting 4-0 and showing no signs of slowing down. Head coach Matt Campbell has built a team that thrives on its defense, allowing just 10.2 points per game, the second-best mark in the conference. Their ability to limit explosive plays and generate turnovers has made life difficult for opposing offenses. Offensively, the Cyclones have been led by quarterback Rocco Becht, who has managed games efficiently, avoiding costly mistakes and making the most of his opportunities. Becht has been complemented by a strong rushing attack featuring Cartevious Norton, who has emerged as a reliable option, rushing for over 400 yards this season. Iowa State’s offensive line has been dominant, creating lanes and keeping Becht upright. Defensively, the Cyclones are led by a standout secondary that has allowed just 174 passing yards per game. Against a Baylor team that likes to air it out, this could be a decisive advantage. If Iowa State can maintain their defensive intensity and continue to control the tempo with their run game, they should be able to dictate the pace and keep the Bears’ offense in check.
Game 5
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 30, 2024
🌪️🚨🌪️ pic.twitter.com/JzFA7NCmVo
Remi is pouring through tons of data on each team. In fact, anytime the Bears and Cyclones play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Jack Trice Stadium in Oct almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Bears and Cyclones and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned factor human bettors often put on Baylor’s strength factors between a Bears team going up against a possibly healthy Cyclones team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
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