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The Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Marshall Thundering Herd are set to square off in a highly anticipated Sun Belt matchup. Both teams come into this game with identical 2-2 records and will be looking to get back on track in conference play. Appalachian State has shown flashes of a potent offense, but their defense has been a major concern, giving up an average of 35.8 points per game, which ranks among the worst in the FBS. The Mountaineers are coming off a demoralizing 48-14 loss to South Alabama, where they allowed over 450 total yards. Marshall, meanwhile, enters the game as a slight 2-point favorite. The Thundering Herd have been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 35.8 points per game while holding opponents to just under 26 points.
Led by their efficient quarterback play and a strong ground game, Marshall will look to exploit Appalachian State’s porous defense. However, Marshall’s own defensive weaknesses, particularly against the pass, could provide opportunities for the Mountaineers’ quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has already thrown for over 1,200 yards this season. The outcome of this game may hinge on which team can control the tempo and limit turnovers. Appalachian State has struggled with giveaways, recording 8 turnovers in 4 games. If the Mountaineers can clean up their mistakes and capitalize on Marshall’s secondary, they could pull off an upset. On the other hand, Marshall’s ability to run the ball effectively and sustain long drives could wear down Appalachian State’s defense
𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐦 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦.
— App State Football (@AppState_FB) September 26, 2024
Detail shots of our Week 5 fit. #GoApp #BeatLiberty pic.twitter.com/aLOFHMktmF
Appalachian State has had a disappointing start to their 2024 campaign. At 2-2, the Mountaineers are searching for consistency on both sides of the ball. The offense has been solid, averaging 23.3 points per game, but turnovers and penalties have hampered their ability to close out games. Quarterback Joey Aguilar has been a bright spot, throwing for over 1,200 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he’s been under pressure frequently due to a struggling offensive line. Defensively, Appalachian State has been one of the worst units in the FBS, giving up over 450 yards per game and allowing 35.8 points on average. Their run defense has been particularly concerning, allowing over 210 yards per game. Against a Marshall team that excels at running the ball, the Mountaineers’ front seven will need to step up and find a way to contain the ground game. If they continue to get gashed in the run game, it will be a long day for Appalachian State. The Mountaineers will need a complete game from both the offense and defense to have a chance against Marshall. If they can limit big plays and win the turnover battle, they could keep it close. However, given their current form and defensive issues, Appalachian State faces an uphill battle in this road contest.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
The Marshall Thundering Herd enter this game looking to leverage their strong home-field advantage. Marshall is 4-1 at home in their last 5 games and has historically been difficult to beat at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Offensively, the Thundering Herd rely on a balanced attack, led by their rushing game, which averages over 200 yards per contest. The offensive line has been effective, allowing only a handful of sacks this season, and creating ample opportunities for running backs to gain yardage. Defensively, Marshall has been stout against the run but vulnerable through the air. They are giving up just 5.8 yards per pass attempt, but teams that can spread the field have had success moving the ball against their secondary. This could be a problem against Appalachian State’s aerial attack, which has shown explosiveness despite their overall inconsistency. Marshall will need to tighten up their coverage and force the Mountaineers into long third-down situations to maintain control. The biggest factor for Marshall will be limiting turnovers and establishing the run early. If they can control time of possession and keep Appalachian State’s offense off the field, they have a strong chance to cover the spread and secure a pivotal conference win.
Game Week - 05
— Marshall Football (@HerdFB) October 1, 2024
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫 🔜 pic.twitter.com/CiLBQw8EOP
Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Mountaineers and Thundering Herd play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Oct can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every simulation between the Mountaineers and Thundering Herd and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most focused on the linear correlation of weight knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on App. State’s strength factors between a Mountaineers team going up against a possibly unhealthy Thundering Herd team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
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