Louisville vs SMU Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CBB Lines & Props (Feb 17)
Updated: 2026-02-15T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
This intriguing ACC battle brings the No. 21 Louisville Cardinals, riding a multi-game winning streak and featuring one of the conference’s most potent offenses, into Moody Coliseum to face the SMU Mustangs, who are fighting to improve their league position after a tough road loss. Both teams feature high-scoring attacks with multiple double-figure scorers, setting the stage for a fast-paced, offense-oriented contest.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Feb 17, 2026
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST
Venue: Moody Coliseum
Mustangs Record: (17-8)
Cardinals Record: (19-6)
OPENING ODDS
LVILLE Moneyline: -187
SMU Moneyline: +155
LVILLE Spread: -3.5
SMU Spread: +3.5
Over/Under: 166.5
LVILLE
Betting Trends
- Louisville has covered the spread in 5 of its last 7 games as an underdog and boasts a strong ATS mark of 14-6 over its last 20 road games vs. teams with winning home records, showing bettors favorable performance relative to expectations.
SMU
Betting Trends
- SMU has been less reliable against the spread at home recently, going just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games, though it has covered in 4 of its last 5 as a modest home underdog, reflecting mixed results in similar scenarios.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- The “Over” has been common in SMU underdog games, going 5-0 in their last 5 underdog outings of 0.5-6.5 points at home, suggesting that total points could be a focus for bettors in this matchup with two high-powered offenses.
LVILLE vs. SMU
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B.J. Edwards over 1.5 Steals.
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Louisville vs SMU Prediction & Odds:
Free CBB Betting Insights for 2/17/26
Tuesday night’s ACC clash between the Louisville Cardinals and SMU Mustangs features two of the conference’s most dynamic scoring teams headed into a pivotal late-season matchup that could impact tournament seeding. Louisville (19-6, 8-4 ACC) enters with momentum, winners of multiple games in a row and showcasing a high-octane offensive attack that leads the conference in scoring. Freshman phenom Mikel Brown Jr. has been spectacular, putting up eye-popping numbers recently, including a record-tying 45-point effort in one game and another 29-point outing in the most recent win, helping Louisville average nearly 87 points per game. That offensive firepower gets even more impressive with contributions from veteran shooters like Ryan Conwell and others who can stretch defenses. The Cardinals’ scoring depth and ability to push tempo make them dangerous anywhere, but docking at SMU presents a challenge given the Mustangs’ own balanced scoring. SMU (17-8, 6-6 ACC) counterbalances Louisville’s prowess with its own versatile offensive group that consistently fields multiple double-digit scorers in games.
Boopie Miller leads the charge with near 19 points per game while Jaron Pierre Jr., B.J. Edwards, Corey Washington and Samet Yigitoglu all provide scoring punch, making the Mustangs difficult to defend when they find rhythm. SMU’s offense averaged just shy of 86 points per game heading into this contest, so it’s clear both clubs are built to score in bunches. The first meeting earlier this season saw Louisville win 88-74, exploiting an 11-0 run in the second half to pull away after SMU held an early edge, but SMU has shown grit and the ability to compete with elite teams. Defensive intensity and turnover margin may be deciding factors here; Louisville thrives on pushing pace and creating extra possessions, while SMU’s depth and collective scoring can keep it close if the Mustangs hit their marks. With league positioning still fluid and postseason implications on the line, this matchup brings an exciting contrast of offensive styles and should stay competitive into the closing minutes.
Get live CBB odds and precise AI CBB picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.
Thanks for having us @dallasmavs #GoCards pic.twitter.com/5b5VXCZObq
— Louisville Men's Basketball (@LouisvilleMBB) February 17, 2026
Louisville Cardinals CBB Preview
The Louisville Cardinals arrive in Dallas riding a wave of momentum that has them firmly in the mix for ACC tournament positioning and national recognition. Louisville’s 19-6 overall record and 8-4 ACC mark reflect a team clicking on both ends of the floor, particularly on offense where they lead the conference with an explosive scoring average near 87 points per game. A major reason for that offensive success is freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr., who has turned heads with prolific scoring performances, including record-setting outputs and back-to-back efficient outings that blend scoring with playmaking and defensive contributions. Brown’s emergence gives Louisville a dynamic playmaker capable of creating offense in isolation or off the catch, while sharpshooters like Ryan Conwell stretch defenses with their deep threat. Louisville’s offensive balance means they aren’t reliant on a single scorer — when one star is off, another can step up — making them tough to contain in transition or in half-court sets. Defensively, Louisville has seen improvement and consistency that complement its offensive firepower.
The Cardinals excel at pushing tempo and forcing turnovers that lead to easy points in transition, a factor that often flips momentum in their favor. At times, their defense on the perimeter and ability to contest shots has been a difference-maker in close games, helping them withstand runs from high-scoring teams. In the earlier meeting this season with SMU, Louisville pulled away in the second half after tightening up defensively and executing crucial possessions, showcasing their ability to adjust mid-game. On the road in Dallas, Louisville will aim to replicate that formula by controlling the pace early, minimizing turnovers, and converting efficiently in transition. With a deep rotation and a confident roster riding a winning streak, the Cardinals have the experience and offensive firepower to challenge SMU’s balanced attack and maintain their own conference momentum. If Louisville stays disciplined on defense and continues to generate high-quality shot opportunities on offense, they’re well-positioned to extend their winning ways in this pivotal ACC matchup.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
SMU Mustangs CBB Preview
The SMU Mustangs head into this home contest versus Louisville knowing a win could boost their position in what’s shaping up to be a tight ACC race. SMU’s 17-8 overall record and 6-6 mark in conference play reflect a team capable of both scoring efficiently and weathering adversity. The Mustangs are led by a quintet of reliable offensive contributors, headlined by Boopie Miller, who averages near 19 points per game and combines scoring with rebounding and playmaking. Joining him are Jaron Pierre Jr., B.J. Edwards, Corey Washington and Samet Yigitoglu, all of whom can light up the scoreboard on any given night. Their balanced attack means defenders can’t key on just one star, and it also allows SMU to sustain offensive production even when a primary scorer is off. SMU’s depth has translated into consistent scoring across many games, and that versatility will be critical at home against a potent Louisville offense. Despite offensive strengths, SMU’s defensive consistency has been up and down. Recent games showcase their ability to build leads — such as a solid home win over Notre Dame — but also bouts where late defensive lapses have allowed opponents to rally, as seen in a narrow loss at Syracuse where a late surge from the Orange cost SMU a winnable game.
At Moody Coliseum, SMU has traditionally played well, and the familiarity of their home court should help them dictate pace early. The Mustangs’ coaching staff will want to focus on closing out Louisville’s shooters and securing defensive rebounds to prevent second-chance points that have hurt them in past contests. On offense, SMU will look to push tempo and leverage its scoring balance to exploit gaps in Louisville’s rotation, mixing three-point threats with drives to the basket to keep the crowd engaged. If SMU can control turnovers and maintain defensive focus late in possessions, they have the tools to keep this game within reach or steal a home victory in a key ACC matchup that could impact postseason seeding and momentum.
PACK MOODY ✌️ pic.twitter.com/qet4BZQAAq
— SMU Basketball (@SMUBasketball) February 17, 2026
Louisville vs SMU Prop Picks (AI)
Remi is pouring through loads of data on each team. In fact, anytime the Cardinals and Mustangs play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Moody Coliseum in Feb rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Louisville vs SMU Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every facet between the Cardinals and Mustangs and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most keyed in on the growing weight human bettors regularly put on SMU’s strength factors between a Cardinals team going up against a possibly rested Mustangs team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CBB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Louisville vs SMU picks, computer picks Cardinals vs Mustangs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBB | 3/5 | MVSU@JACKST | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 6 |
VAULT v3
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| CBB | 3/5 | LATECH@LIB | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| CBB | 3/5 | DRAKE@SOILL | GET FREE PICK NOW | 3 | – | |
| CBB | 3/5 | GAS@ARKST | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | MANHAT@FAIR | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | COPPIN@MORGAN | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | DRAKE@SOILL | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | TULANE@TEMPLE | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | SFLA@MEMP | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | MTSU@FIU | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | UCDAV@LNGBCH | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
INTEL
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| CBB | 3/5 | INDST@VALPO | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
INTEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CBB schedule.
Louisville Betting Trends
Louisville has covered the spread in 5 of its last 7 games as an underdog and boasts a strong ATS mark of 14-6 over its last 20 road games vs. teams with winning home records, showing bettors favorable performance relative to expectations.
SMU Betting Trends
SMU has been less reliable against the spread at home recently, going just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games, though it has covered in 4 of its last 5 as a modest home underdog, reflecting mixed results in similar scenarios.
Cardinals vs. Mustangs Matchup Trends
The “Over” has been common in SMU underdog games, going 5-0 in their last 5 underdog outings of 0.5-6.5 points at home, suggesting that total points could be a focus for bettors in this matchup with two high-powered offenses.
Louisville vs. SMU Game Info
Louisville vs SMU starts on February 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST.
Venue: Moody Coliseum.
Spread: SMU +3.5
Moneyline: Louisville -187, SMU +155
Over/Under: 166.5
Louisville: (19-6) | SMU: (17-8)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B.J. Edwards over 1.5 Steals.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
The “Over” has been common in SMU underdog games, going 5-0 in their last 5 underdog outings of 0.5-6.5 points at home, suggesting that total points could be a focus for bettors in this matchup with two high-powered offenses.
LVILLE trend: Louisville has covered the spread in 5 of its last 7 games as an underdog and boasts a strong ATS mark of 14-6 over its last 20 road games vs. teams with winning home records, showing bettors favorable performance relative to expectations.
SMU trend: SMU has been less reliable against the spread at home recently, going just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games, though it has covered in 4 of its last 5 as a modest home underdog, reflecting mixed results in similar scenarios.
See our latest CBB picks and odds pages for 2026 to compare prices before you bet.
Louisville vs. SMU Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Louisville vs SMU trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
| LVILLE Moneyline | -187 |
|---|---|
| SMU Moneyline | +155 |
| LVILLE Spread | -3.5 |
| SMU Spread | +3.5 |
| Over / Under | 166.5 |
Louisville vs SMU Live Odds
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Charleston Southern Buccaneers
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66
70
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+260
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+3.5 (-115)
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O 159.5 (-110)
U 159.5 (-118)
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69
46
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O 132.5 (-102)
U 132.5 (-130)
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30
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-325
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U 150.5 (-118)
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U 154 (-115)
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-115
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O 139 (-115)
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O 140 (-105)
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-220
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O 142.5 (-115)
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+157
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O 134 (-115)
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O 155.5 (-110)
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O 165 (-108)
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-155
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O 159 (-130)
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–
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+415
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O 153 (-115)
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MOREHD
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–
–
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pk
pk
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O 139 (-110)
U 139 (-110)
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–
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-910
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–
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-1.5 (-105)
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O 133 (-110)
U 133 (-110)
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–
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+4 (-110)
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O 142 (-110)
U 142 (-110)
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UVA
|
–
–
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+350
-500
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+11.5 (-115)
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|
O 144 (-110)
U 144 (-110)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 12:00PM EST
Arkansas Razorbacks
Missouri Tigers
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ARK
MIZZOU
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–
–
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-125
+102
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pk
pk
|
O 162.5 (-110)
U 162.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 12:00PM EST
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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CLEM
|
–
–
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+1000
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+17 (-110)
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O 144 (-110)
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DEPAUL
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–
–
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+125
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O 141 (-110)
U 141 (-110)
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Boston College Eagles
3/7/26 12PM
ND
BC
|
–
–
|
-125
+104
|
pk
pk
|
O 139 (-110)
U 139 (-110)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 12:30PM EST
UConn Huskies
Marquette Golden Eagles
3/7/26 12:30PM
UCONN
MARQ
|
–
–
|
-455
+325
|
-9 (-110)
+9 (-110)
|
O 142 (-110)
U 142 (-110)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 1:00PM EST
South Carolina Gamecocks
Ole Miss Rebels
3/7/26 1PM
SC
OLEMISS
|
–
–
|
+210
-275
|
+6.5 (-112)
-6.5 (-112)
|
O 144.5 (-110)
U 144.5 (-113)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 2:00PM EST
Arizona State Sun Devils
Iowa State Cyclones
3/7/26 2PM
ARIZST
IOWAST
|
–
–
|
-1115
|
-14.5 (-112)
|
O 147.5 (-112)
U 147.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 2:00PM EST
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas Jayhawks
3/7/26 2PM
KSTATE
KANSAS
|
–
–
|
-1667
|
-17.5 (-107)
|
O 153.5 (-113)
U 153.5 (-109)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 2:00PM EST
Vanderbilt Commodores
Tennessee Volunteers
3/7/26 2PM
VANDY
TENN
|
–
–
|
+170
-220
|
+5.5 (-117)
-5.5 (-107)
|
O 148.5 (-112)
U 148.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 2:00PM EST
Louisville Cardinals
Miami Hurricanes
3/7/26 2PM
LVILLE
MIAMI
|
–
–
|
-112
-112
|
pk
pk
|
O 156.5 (-112)
U 156.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 2:00PM EST
SMU Mustangs
Florida State Seminoles
3/7/26 2PM
SMU
FSU
|
–
–
|
-105
|
+1.5 (-117)
|
O 159.5 (-112)
U 159.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 2:00PM EST
Cincinnati Bearcats
TCU Horned Frogs
3/7/26 2PM
CINCY
TCU
|
–
–
|
+125
-155
|
+2.5 (-106)
-2.5 (-118)
|
O 138.5 (-109)
U 138.5 (-114)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 2:15PM EST
Stanford Cardinal
NC State Wolfpack
3/7/26 2:15PM
STNFRD
NCST
|
–
–
|
+215
-265
|
+6.5 (-105)
-6.5 (-115)
|
O 152.5 (-115)
U 152.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 3:30PM EST
Georgia Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
3/7/26 3:30PM
UGA
MISSST
|
–
–
|
-184
|
-4.5 (-105)
|
O 163.5 (-105)
U 163.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 4:00PM EST
Saint Louis Billikens
George Mason Patriots
3/7/26 4PM
STLOU
GMASON
|
–
–
|
-335
+250
|
-7.5 (-108)
+7.5 (-115)
|
O 144.5 (-115)
U 144.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 4:00PM EST
New Mexico Lobos
Utah State Aggies
3/7/26 4PM
NMEX
UTAHST
|
–
–
|
+215
-278
|
+6.5 (-106)
-6.5 (-118)
|
O 155.5 (-115)
U 155.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 4:00PM EST
Wisconsin Badgers
Purdue Boilermakers
3/7/26 4PM
WISC
PURDUE
|
–
–
|
+230
-335
|
+7.5 (-112)
-7.5 (-112)
|
O 156.5 (-115)
U 156.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 4:00PM EST
Florida Gators
Kentucky Wildcats
3/7/26 4PM
FLA
UK
|
–
–
|
-286
+210
|
-6.5 (-117)
+6.5 (-107)
|
O 157.5 (-114)
U 157.5 (-109)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 4:00PM EST
California Golden Bears
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
3/7/26 4PM
CAL
WAKE
|
–
–
|
+158
-192
|
+4.5 (-104)
-4.5 (-118)
|
O 151.5 (-110)
U 151.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 4:30PM EST
Pittsburgh Panthers
Syracuse Orange
3/7/26 4:30PM
PITT
CUSE
|
–
–
|
+195
-240
|
+6.5 (-115)
-6.5 (-105)
|
O 140.5 (-110)
U 140.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 5:00PM EST
Utah Utes
Baylor Bears
3/7/26 5PM
UTAH
BAYLOR
|
–
–
|
+450
-630
|
+11.5 (-105)
-11.5 (-115)
|
O 151.5 (-105)
U 151.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Mar 7, 2026 5:30PM EST
Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes
3/7/26 5:30PM
IND
OHIOST
|
–
–
|
+140
-175
|
+3.5 (-109)
-3.5 (-114)
|
O 147.5 (-114)
U 147.5 (-109)
|
CBB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs on February 17, 2026 at Moody Coliseum.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CBB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
|
|
|
|
RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUQ@RI | RI -2 | 53.7% | 2 | WIN |
| OREG@ILL | ILL -18 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| BRYANT@NH | BRYANT +1 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| MISSST@FLA | FLA -21.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
| LAMAR@HOUBP | LAMAR -114 | 55.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| IOWAST@ARIZ | ARIZ -7 | 53.1% | 1 | WIN |
| RIDER@SIENA | SIENA -15.5 | 53.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| CHARLO@FAU | CHARLO +7.5 | 58.6% | 8 | WIN |
| NOTEX@UAB | UAB -5.5 | 54.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| NIOWA@DRAKE | NIOWA -4 | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
| SCARST@MDESHORE | SCARST +7.5 | 56.2% | 6 | WIN |
| YALE@CLMBIA | YALE -5.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
| SFAUSTIN@HOUBP | SFAUSTIN -8 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| TXTECH@IOWAST | TXTECH +10.5 | 52.3% | 2 | WIN |
| PITT@CAL | PITT +8.5 | 57.3% | 7 | WIN |
| KANSAS@ARIZ | ARIZ -9.5 | 53.6% | 3 | WIN |
| EILL@SIUE | EILL +5.5 | 55.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| UVA@DUKE | DUKE -10 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
| BUCK@LEHIGH | BUCK +5.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| IOWA@PSU | IOWA -9.5 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| ARK@FLA | FLA -10.5 | 54.0% | 3 | WIN |
| CALPOLY@UCSD | CALPOLY +6.5 | 56.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| NAU@EWASH | NAU +9.5 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| VANDY@UK | UK -0.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
| DEL@KENSAW | DEL +11.5 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| BAMA@TENN | AMARI ALLEN UNDER 6.5 REB | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
| GONZAG@MARYCA | PAULIUS MURAUSKAS UNDER 23.5 PTS + REB | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| QUINN@NIAGARA | NIAGARA +9 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| MICH@ILL | ILL +1 | 57.7% | 7 | LOSS |
| BROWN@CLMBIA | BROWN +4.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| COASTAL@JMAD | COASTAL +5.5 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
| GASOU@MRSHL | GASOU +6.5 | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| NEAST@WMMARY | NEAST +11.5 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| BRYANT@UMBC | BRYANT +10.5 | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| LIB@KENSAW | LIB -1.5 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| ALCORN@TEXSOU | ALCORN +6.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
| GMASON@STJOE | GMASON -1.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| SFLA@RICE | SFLA -11.5 | 57.4% | 7 | WIN |
| MD@NEB | NEB -16 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| BELLAR@NOALA | NOALA +2.5 | 57.3% | 7 | WIN |
| UNLV@GC | GC -7.5 | 53.8% | 2 | WIN |
| IOWAST@UTAH | IOWAST -13 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| MINN@MICH | MINN +22.5 | 53.2% | 3 | WIN |
| AUBURN@OKLA | OKLA +2.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| OLDDOM@MRSHL | MRSHL -6.5 | 53.2% | 2 | WIN |
| LVILLE@UNC | UNDER 162.5 | 53.2% | 1 | WIN |
| NEWORL@SFAUSTIN | NEWORL +11.5 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| HOU@KANSAS | KANSAS +1.5 | 52.8% | 1 | WIN |
| LVILLE@UNC | UNC +3.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| MILW@OAK | MILW +7.5 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| CAN@MOUNT | CAN +7.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |