North Carolina vs SMU Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CBB Lines & Props (Jan 03)

Updated: 2026-01-01T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (13‑1) travel to Moody Coliseum to face the SMU Mustangs (11‑2) on January 3, 2026 in a high‑octane ACC matchup that pits North Carolina’s disciplined inside game and elite defense against SMU’s explosive scoring attack on its home floor. This game marks the Mustangs’ conference opener at home, where they’ve been dominant, and presents a stylistic contrast between UNC’s methodical rebounding and SMU’s fast‑paced offense.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jan 03, 2026

Start Time: 3:15 PM EST​

Venue: Moody Coliseum​

Mustangs Record: (9-4)

Tar Heels Record: (13-1)

OPENING ODDS

UNC Moneyline: -110

SMU Moneyline: -109

UNC Spread: -1.5

SMU Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 153.5

UNC
Betting Trends

  • North Carolina is 9‑5‑0 against the spread this season (around 64 percent) and has covered in 5 of its last 7 games, showing consistency relative to expectations.

SMU
Betting Trends

  • SMU’s ATS record sits around 6‑7‑0 this season, including mixed results at home, despite its strong overall win–loss mark.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Recent trends show SMU has struggled to cover against AP‑ranked opponents at Moody Coliseum — often trailing at halftime in those spots — while North Carolina has been tough ATS over its last several outings and gives up relatively few points, making this clash intriguing against the spread and potentially tighter than traditional offensive–defensive metrics indicate.

UNC vs. SMU
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Miller over 26.5 PTS+REB+AST.

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North Carolina vs SMU Prediction & Odds:
Free CBB Betting Insights for 1/3/26

Saturday’s matchup between the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (13–1, 1–0 ACC) and the SMU Mustangs (11–2, 0–0 ACC) at Moody Coliseum shapes up as a compelling contrast of styles and strengths in early ACC play. UNC comes into this game riding a seven‑game winning streak, most recently building on a 79–66 victory over Florida State where Caleb Wilson scored 22 points and grabbed 16 rebounds, demonstrating his breakout impact as North Carolina’s leading scorer and rebounder this season. Carolina’s identity is rooted in a balanced offensive attack that averages about 81.2 points per game and in one of the nation’s more disciplined defenses, holding opponents to roughly 63.7 points per game while posting strong rebounding numbers that help limit second‑chance scoring. The Tar Heels also knock down about 8.4 three‑pointers per game, testing defenses with both interior toughness and perimeter efficiency. UNC’s ability to control tempo and protect the ball has been a key to its success, especially in league play. SMU, meanwhile, has emerged as one of the ACC’s most explosive offensive teams, averaging 91.1 points per game while shooting near 50 percent from the field and hosting an undefeated 9–0 home mark this season.

The Mustangs spread the scoring load across five players averaging double figures, led by standout guard Boopie Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr., and B.J. Edwards, all of whom contribute points and playmaking that make SMU’s offense difficult to slow. Their up‑tempo style thrives on transition opportunities and high‑efficiency shooting, and they also space the floor with nearly 7.6 made threes per game that force opponents into tough defensive decisions. This game pivots on whether North Carolina can impose its defensive discipline and rebounding strength to slow SMU’s prolific offense, forcing the Mustangs into half‑court sets where Carolina excels. At the same time, SMU will look to dictate pace early, capitalize on transition buckets, and penetrate inside to take advantage of any defensive breakdowns. Turnovers, free‑throw accuracy, and rebounding differentials will likely determine which team controls possessions late, making this one of the most intriguing early ACC matchups of the season. With first‑time conference positioning on the line and contrasting styles on display, expect a competitive, strategic battle that could hinge on execution in the final minutes.

Get live CBB odds and precise AI CBB picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.

North Carolina Tar Heels CBB Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels enter this mid‑season road test on a 13–1 record and riding a strong wave of momentum, having just opened ACC play with a convincing 79–66 victory over Florida State where Caleb Wilson posted 22 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists, illustrating his importance as UNC’s focal point on both ends of the floor. UNC’s forward‑centric attack often dictates the pace of the game, as Wilson leads the team with nearly 20 points and over 10 rebounds per game, while complementary pieces like Seth Trimble, Kyan Evans, and Henri Veesaar contribute reliably to scoring and rebounding. The Tar Heels play a disciplined brand of basketball that pairs efficient interior offense with stout defensive principles — holding opponents to around 64 points per game and generating extra possessions through rebounding while limiting second‑chance scoring. UNC’s methodical approach has consistently allowed them to control tempo, particularly in the half‑court, where they emphasize ball movement, smart shot selection, and minimizing turnovers to sustain offensive rhythm and defensive stability.

On the road against SMU’s fast‑paced offense, North Carolina’s challenge will be to slow the contest early and prevent the Mustangs from establishing transition dominance. UNC’s rebounding strength — often finishing with a significant edge on the glass — could prove pivotal in limiting SMU’s tempo and converting defensive stops into high‑quality offensive chances. Defensively, the Tar Heels must stay connected in rotations, contesting perimeter shots and clogging passing lanes to disrupt SMU’s scoring balance. Execution in late possessions will likely define this matchup. If UNC can handle SMU’s offensive pressure, control rebounds, and impose their structured style, they have a strong path to keeping this game close or pulling off a difficult road win in a hostile environment. Conversely, lapses on the defensive glass or turnovers could allow SMU to dictate pace and momentum, testing UNC’s adaptability away from home.

The No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (13‑1) travel to Moody Coliseum to face the SMU Mustangs (11‑2) on January 3, 2026 in a high‑octane ACC matchup that pits North Carolina’s disciplined inside game and elite defense against SMU’s explosive scoring attack on its home floor. This game marks the Mustangs’ conference opener at home, where they’ve been dominant, and presents a stylistic contrast between UNC’s methodical rebounding and SMU’s fast‑paced offense. North Carolina vs SMU AI Prediction: Free CBB Betting Insights for Jan 03. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

SMU Mustangs CBB Preview

The SMU Mustangs (11–2, 0–0 ACC) enter their conference opener at Moody Coliseum with one of the most dynamic offensive teams in college basketball. SMU averages around 91 points per game while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field, combining high-volume three-point shooting with aggressive drives to the basket. Key contributors like Boopie Miller, B.J. Edwards, and Jaron Pierre Jr. have provided consistent scoring, while forwards such as Corey Washington and Samet Yigitoglu anchor the rebounding effort and create second-chance opportunities. The Mustangs’ offensive scheme emphasizes spacing, ball movement, and quick reads, which allows them to generate open shots and exploit defensive miscues. SMU has shown a tendency to build early leads, putting pressure on opponents to match pace in a hostile environment. Their assist numbers indicate unselfish play, with multiple players capable of finishing possessions, making them unpredictable and difficult to defend when at full strength. Moody Coliseum has been a fortress for SMU this season, as the Mustangs enter undefeated at home, capitalizing on the energy of their crowd to dictate tempo and confidence early.

Despite their offensive prowess, SMU’s defense has been more inconsistent, allowing roughly 76.5 points per game, which could be exploited by a disciplined team like North Carolina. Controlling rebounds, particularly on the defensive glass, will be crucial to limit the Tar Heels’ second-chance opportunities. Minimizing turnovers and playing smart defense will be key in preventing UNC from dictating pace in transition or capitalizing on high-efficiency shots in the half court. Against a nationally ranked opponent, SMU will rely on its offensive strengths while tightening rotations on defense. If the Mustangs can sustain shooting efficiency, control the tempo, and convert fast-break opportunities into points, they have the firepower and home-court advantage to compete with one of the ACC’s elite teams. Execution in late-game situations, particularly in shot selection and protecting possessions, will be critical for SMU to secure a statement victory and maintain momentum in conference play.

North Carolina vs SMU Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Tar Heels and Mustangs play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Moody Coliseum in Jan seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Miller over 26.5 PTS+REB+AST.

North Carolina vs SMU Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle between the Tar Heels and Mustangs and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the linear correlation of weight emotional bettors often put on coaching factors between a Tar Heels team going up against a possibly tired Mustangs team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

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Below is our current AI North Carolina vs SMU picks, computer picks Tar Heels vs Mustangs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
CBB 3/12 XAVIER@UCONN UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
CBB 3/12 MTSU@LATECH UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL
CBB 3/12 LOYCHI@DAVID GET FREE PICK NOW 2
CBB 3/12 TCU@KANSAS UNLOCK THIS PICK 10 INTEL Locked INTEL
CBB 3/12 LOYCHI@DAVID UNLOCK THIS PICK 10 INTEL Locked INTEL
CBB 3/12 SCARST@NORFLK UNLOCK THIS PICK 10 INTEL Locked INTEL
CBB 3/12 OLEMISS@GEORGIA UNLOCK THIS PICK 10 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CBB schedule.

North Carolina Betting Trends

North Carolina is 9‑5‑0 against the spread this season (around 64 percent) and has covered in 5 of its last 7 games, showing consistency relative to expectations.

SMU Betting Trends

SMU’s ATS record sits around 6‑7‑0 this season, including mixed results at home, despite its strong overall win–loss mark.

Tar Heels vs. Mustangs Matchup Trends

Recent trends show SMU has struggled to cover against AP‑ranked opponents at Moody Coliseum — often trailing at halftime in those spots — while North Carolina has been tough ATS over its last several outings and gives up relatively few points, making this clash intriguing against the spread and potentially tighter than traditional offensive–defensive metrics indicate.

North Carolina vs. SMU Game Info

January 03, 2026 • 3:15 PM EST • Moody Coliseum

North Carolina vs. SMU Odds

Remi is pouring through loads of data on each team. In fact, anytime the North Carolina vs SMU trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable patterns.

North Carolina vs SMU

North Carolina vs SMU Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Mar 13, 2026 11:30AM EDT
GW Revolutionaries
Saint Louis Billikens
3/13/26 11:30AM
GWASH
STLOU
+210
-260
+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
O 161.5 (-110)
U 161.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 12:00PM EDT
Ohio State Buckeyes
Michigan Wolverines
3/13/26 12PM
OHIOST
MICH
+600
-900
+13 (-110)
-13 (-110)
O 154 (-110)
U 154 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 12:30PM EDT
Charlotte 49ers
UAB Blazers
3/13/26 12:30PM
CHARLO
UAB
+165
-200
+5 (-110)
-5 (-110)
O 145.5 (-110)
U 145.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 12:30PM EDT
Missouri State Bears
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
3/13/26 12:30PM
MIZZST
LATECH
 
-120
 
-1.5 (-110)
O 134.5 (-110)
U 134.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 1:00PM EDT
Kentucky Wildcats
Florida Gators
3/13/26 1PM
UK
FLA
+425
-575
+11 (-115)
-11 (-105)
O 159 (-110)
U 159 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 2:00PM EDT
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Dayton Flyers
3/13/26 2PM
STBON
DAYTON
+230
-285
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
O 140 (-110)
U 140 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 2:00PM EDT
Prairie View A&M Panthers
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
3/13/26 2PM
PVAM
ALA&M
 
+100
 
+1 (-110)
O 144 (-110)
U 144 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 2:30PM EDT
Wisconsin Badgers
Illinois Fighting Illini
3/13/26 2:30PM
WISC
ILL
+240
-300
+7.5 (-105)
-7.5 (-115)
O 156.5 (-110)
U 156.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 3:00PM EDT
Kennesaw State Owls
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3/13/26 3PM
KENSAW
SAMST
 
 
pk
pk
O 162 (-110)
U 162 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 3:30PM EDT
Tennessee Volunteers
Vanderbilt Commodores
3/13/26 3:30PM
TENN
VANDY
+105
-125
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 148 (-110)
U 148 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 3:30PM EDT
North Texas Mean Green
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
3/13/26 3:30PM
NOTEX
TULSA
+240
-300
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
O 143 (-110)
U 143 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 5:00PM EDT
Umass Minutemen
Toledo Rockets
3/13/26 5PM
UMASS
TOLEDO
 
-170
 
-3.5 (-110)
O 158.5 (-110)
U 158.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 5:00PM EDT
Duquesne Dukes
VCU Rams
3/13/26 5PM
DUQ
VCU
+310
-400
+9 (-110)
-9 (-110)
O 153 (-110)
U 153 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 5:30PM EDT
Seton Hall Pirates
St. John's Red Storm
3/13/26 5:30PM
SETON
STJOHN
+230
-285
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
O 133.5 (-110)
U 133.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 6:00PM EDT
South Carolina State Bulldogs
Howard Bison
3/13/26 6PM
SCST
HOWARD
 
-1500
 
-15.5 (-110)
O 144.5 (-110)
U 144.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 6:30PM EDT
Purdue Boilermakers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
3/13/26 6:30PM
PURDUE
NEB
-180
+150
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
O 143 (-110)
U 143 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 7:00PM EDT
Miami Hurricanes
Virginia Cavaliers
3/13/26 7PM
MIAMI
UVA
+150
-180
+4 (-110)
-4 (-110)
O 144 (-110)
U 144 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 7:00PM EDT
Ole Miss Rebels
Alabama Crimson Tide
3/13/26 7PM
OLEMISS
BAMA
+375
-500
+10.5 (-110)
-10.5 (-110)
O 164 (-110)
U 164 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 7:00PM EDT
Iowa State Cyclones
Arizona Wildcats
3/13/26 7PM
IOWAST
ARIZ
+160
-190
+4 (-110)
-4 (-110)
O 143 (-110)
U 143 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 7:30PM EDT
Davidson Wildcats
Saint Joseph's Hawks
3/13/26 7:30PM
DAVID
STJOE
+110
-130
+2 (-110)
-2 (-110)
O 131.5 (-110)
U 131.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 7:30PM EDT
Kent State Golden Flashes
Akron Zips
3/13/26 7:30PM
KENT
AKRON
+220
-275
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
O 163.5 (-110)
U 163.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 8:00PM EDT
Delaware State Hornets
North Carolina Central Eagles
3/13/26 8PM
DELST
NCCENT
 
-180
 
-4 (-110)
O 133 (-110)
U 133 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 8:00PM EDT
Georgetown Hoyas
UConn Huskies
3/13/26 8PM
GTOWN
UCONN
+600
-900
+13.5 (-110)
-13.5 (-110)
O 140 (-110)
U 140 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 8:30PM EDT
Southern Jaguars
Florida A&M Rattlers
3/13/26 8:30PM
STHRN
FLAAM
-150
+125
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
O 145.5 (-110)
U 145.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 9:00PM EDT
UCLA Bruins
Michigan State Spartans
3/13/26 9PM
UCLA
MICHST
+200
 
+6 (-110)
 
O 142 (-110)
U 142 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 9:00PM EDT
UT Arlington Mavericks
Utah Valley Wolverines
3/13/26 9PM
UTARL
UTVAL
 
-350
 
-8.5 (-110)
O 134.5 (-110)
U 134.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 9:00PM EDT
CSU Northridge Matadors
UC Irvine Anteaters
3/13/26 9PM
CSUN
UCIRV
+170
-205
+4 (-115)
-4 (-105)
O 149.5 (-110)
U 149.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 9:30PM EDT
Nevada Wolf Pack
Utah State Aggies
3/13/26 9:30PM
NEVADA
UTAHST
+210
-260
+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
O 144.5 (-110)
U 144.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 9:30PM EDT
Oklahoma Sooners
Arkansas Razorbacks
3/13/26 9:30PM
OKLA
ARK
+210
-260
+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
O 168.5 (-110)
U 168.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 9:30PM EDT
Kansas Jayhawks
Houston Cougars
3/13/26 9:30PM
KANSAS
HOU
+175
-210
+5 (-110)
-5 (-110)
O 135.5 (-110)
U 135.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 9:30PM EDT
Clemson Tigers
Duke Blue Devils
3/13/26 9:30PM
CLEM
DUKE
+500
-750
+11.5 (-110)
-11.5 (-110)
O 134.5 (-110)
U 134.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 11:30PM EDT
CSU Fullerton Titans
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
3/13/26 11:30PM
CSFULL
HAWAII
+126
 
+4 (-110)
 
O 158.5 (-110)
U 158.5 (-110)
Mar 13, 2026 11:30PM EDT
Utah Tech Trailblazers
Cal Baptist Lancers
3/13/26 11:30PM
UTTECH
CALBAP
+164
-200
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
O 138.5 (-110)
U 138.5 (-110)
Mar 14, 2026 12:00AM EDT
New Mexico Lobos
San Diego State Aztecs
3/14/26 12AM
NMEX
SDGST
-102
 
+1.5 (-110)
 
O 150.5 (-110)
U 150.5 (-110)

CBB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers North Carolina Tar Heels vs. SMU Mustangs on January 03, 2026 at Moody Coliseum.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CBB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

LEAN %WIN UNITS RESULT
NKY@WISCGB NKY -2.5 54.3% 4 WIN
NIOWA@UIC NIOWA -3.5 54.5% 4 WIN
ARK@MIZZOU ARK +130 45.7% 1 WIN
SMU@FSU SMU +110 46.9% 1 LOSS
LVILLE@MIAMI LVILLE +114 49.2% 1 WIN
TXTECH@BYU BYU -125 55.6% 3 WIN
UNC@DUKE UNDER 147.5 53.3% 2 WIN
VANDY@TENN TENN -3.5 53.3% 3 LOSS
NDAK@STTOM-MN NDAK +12.5 54.3% 4 WIN
GWASH@LOYCHI LOYCHI +10.5 54.3% 4 WIN
ALBANY@UMASSLO UMASSLO -2.5 55.3% 5 WIN
PORT@SANFRAN PORT +7.5 53.6% 3 LOSS
UNC@DUKE DUKE -17 57.3% 7 LOSS
NIOWA@BRAD NIOWA -4.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
QUEENS@PEAY QUEENS +1.5 56.5% 6 WIN
CLMBIA@HARV CLMBIA +4.5 53.3% 3 LOSS
LONGWD@NCASH LONGWD -1 53.2% 3 LOSS
VMI@NCGRN NCGRN -7.5 52.7% 2 WIN
LATECH@LIB LATECH +9.5 54.1% 4 WIN
MVSU@JACKST MVSU +10.5 56.1% 6 WIN
STETSON@EKTY EKTY -4 55.7% 5 LOSS
DUQ@RI RI -2 53.7% 2 WIN
OREG@ILL ILL -18 53.8% 3 WIN
BRYANT@NH BRYANT +1 57.3% 7 LOSS
MISSST@FLA FLA -21.5 53.9% 3 WIN
LAMAR@HOUBP LAMAR -114 55.1% 4 LOSS
IOWAST@ARIZ ARIZ -7 53.1% 1 WIN
RIDER@SIENA SIENA -15.5 53.5% 3 LOSS
CHARLO@FAU CHARLO +7.5 58.6% 8 WIN
NOTEX@UAB UAB -5.5 54.8% 3 LOSS
NIOWA@DRAKE NIOWA -4 54.8% 4 WIN
SCARST@MDESHORE SCARST +7.5 56.2% 6 WIN
YALE@CLMBIA YALE -5.5 55.3% 5 WIN
SFAUSTIN@HOUBP SFAUSTIN -8 54.3% 4 WIN
TXTECH@IOWAST TXTECH +10.5 52.3% 2 WIN
PITT@CAL PITT +8.5 57.3% 7 WIN
KANSAS@ARIZ ARIZ -9.5 53.6% 3 WIN
EILL@SIUE EILL +5.5 55.7% 5 LOSS
UVA@DUKE DUKE -10 53.9% 3 WIN
BUCK@LEHIGH BUCK +5.5 54.6% 4 LOSS
IOWA@PSU IOWA -9.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
ARK@FLA FLA -10.5 54.0% 3 WIN
CALPOLY@UCSD CALPOLY +6.5 56.2% 6 LOSS
NAU@EWASH NAU +9.5 57.3% 7 LOSS
VANDY@UK UK -0.5 53.9% 3 WIN
DEL@KENSAW DEL +11.5 55.2% 5 WIN
BAMA@TENN AMARI ALLEN UNDER 6.5 REB 54.8% 4 WIN
GONZAG@MARYCA PAULIUS MURAUSKAS UNDER 23.5 PTS + REB 55.1% 5 WIN
QUINN@NIAGARA NIAGARA +9 54.3% 4 WIN
MICH@ILL ILL +1 57.7% 7 LOSS
BROWN@CLMBIA BROWN +4.5 55.3% 5 LOSS