The Ole Miss Rebels enter the Sweet 16 with a 24-11 record and the momentum of a team that refuses to be defined by seedings or expectations, having shocked the college basketball world with a thrilling upset over Iowa State in the Round of 32—a win that showcased both their competitive toughness and the strategic acumen of head coach Chris Beard, who has transformed this group into a dangerous postseason force. Known more in recent years for rebuilding than for deep March runs, the Rebels have emerged in this year’s tournament as a legitimate threat, blending gritty, physical defense with opportunistic scoring and timely execution, headlined by senior guard Sean Pedulla, who has been a stabilizing and explosive presence throughout the season, averaging 15.2 points and 4.9 assists per game while shooting 38% from three and orchestrating a high-efficiency, low-turnover offense that has found success even against elite defenses. Complementing him is Matthew Murrell, the team’s emotional leader and dynamic two-way guard, whose perimeter defense and slashing ability have proven critical in both transition and late-clock scenarios, while forward Jaemyn Brakefield provides spacing, rebounding, and stretch-four versatility that keeps opposing bigs honest and opens up the paint for driving lanes and ball reversals. Ole Miss plays a measured style, favoring half-court execution over pace, but is opportunistic in transition off steals and long rebounds, turning defense into offense behind their strong perimeter core and tenacity on the boards. The Rebels hold opponents to just under 68 points per game, fueled by tight man-to-man pressure, intelligent switching, and excellent closeouts that have frustrated even high-powered scoring units throughout the season.

On the glass, Ole Miss is relentless, with a top-50 national offensive rebounding rate and a team-wide commitment to boxing out and contesting every possession—a key element of their identity that could help neutralize Michigan State’s size and rebounding strength. Against the spread, Ole Miss has been a surprisingly solid performer, especially in games where they are underdogs of fewer than five points, covering in multiple high-leverage situations throughout the SEC schedule and again during this tournament run. Their 3.5-point underdog status in this matchup against the Spartans places them squarely in the territory where they’ve thrived, and their current level of confidence, chemistry, and discipline makes them more than capable of competing from tip to buzzer. Coach Beard’s ability to adapt game plans in real time has played a pivotal role in their postseason success, often switching between ball-screen coverages and using tactical timeouts to stop opposing runs while maximizing efficiency out of set plays. For Ole Miss to advance, they must continue to get high-level decision-making from Pedulla, capitalize on second-chance opportunities, and maintain their commitment to defensive rotation and contesting without fouling. If their perimeter shooting holds steady and they can slow the game to their preferred tempo, the Rebels’ combination of toughness, senior leadership, and underdog momentum could propel them past a storied Michigan State program and into the Elite Eight, rewriting expectations and extending one of the most impressive tournament runs in program history.