Gaels vs. Crimson Tide
FREE CBB AI Predictions
March 23, 2025

On March 23, 2025, the Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) will face the Alabama Crimson Tide (26-8) in the NCAA Tournament’s second round at Rocket Arena in Cleveland. Alabama is favored by 5.5 points, with an over/under set at 148.5 points.

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GAME INFO

Date: Mar 23, 2025

Start Time: 6:10 PM EST​

Venue: Rocket Arena​

Crimson Tide Record: (26-8)

Gaels Record: (29-5)

OPENING ODDS

MARYCA Moneyline: +190

BAMA Moneyline: -232

MARYCA Spread: +5.5

BAMA Spread: -5.5

Over/Under: 149.5

MARYCA
Betting Trends

  • Specific recent against-the-spread (ATS) statistics for Saint Mary’s are not detailed in the available sources.

BAMA
Betting Trends

  • Specific recent ATS statistics for Alabama are not detailed in the available sources.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Alabama’s status as a 5.5-point favorite reflects expectations of a closely contested game, considering the contrasting styles of play between the two teams.

MARYCA vs. BAMA
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Barrett over 8.5 Points

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Saint Mary's vs Alabama AI Prediction:
Free CBB Betting Insights for 3/23/25

The upcoming NCAA Tournament second-round matchup between the Saint Mary’s Gaels and the Alabama Crimson Tide on March 23, 2025, presents a classic clash of contrasting basketball philosophies. Saint Mary’s, boasting a 29-5 record, has built its success on a foundation of stifling defense and deliberate offensive execution. The Gaels allow an average of just 60.5 points per game, ranking among the nation’s best in defensive efficiency. Their methodical approach emphasizes controlling the tempo, minimizing turnovers, and exploiting high-percentage scoring opportunities. In their first-round victory over Vanderbilt, sophomore guard Jordan Ross delivered a standout performance, underscoring the team’s reliance on disciplined playmakers. In stark contrast, Alabama enters the contest with a 26-8 record, predicated on a high-octane offense that leads the nation with an average of 91.1 points per game. The Crimson Tide’s strategy revolves around an up-tempo pace, aggressive transition play, and a heavy reliance on three-point shooting. All-America guard Mark Sears is the linchpin of this approach, averaging 18.8 points and five assists over the past ten games. Sears’ ability to orchestrate the offense and create scoring opportunities, both for himself and his teammates, makes him a focal point for opposing defenses. The tactical battle between these two teams will likely hinge on which can impose its preferred style of play. Saint Mary’s will aim to slow the game down, utilizing their defensive prowess to disrupt Alabama’s rhythm and limit fast-break opportunities. The Gaels’ offense, led by standout player Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.3 points per game, will seek to exploit defensive gaps through patient ball movement and calculated shot selection. Conversely, Alabama will strive to accelerate the tempo, leveraging their athleticism and depth to wear down the Gaels.

The Crimson Tide’s propensity for launching shots from beyond the arc means that Saint Mary’s perimeter defense will be thoroughly tested. Alabama’s ability to convert these opportunities at a high rate could stretch the Gaels’ defense and open up driving lanes for players like Sears. From a betting perspective, Alabama’s status as a 5.5-point favorite reflects the broader expectation that their offensive firepower may outweigh Saint Mary’s defensive capabilities. The over/under set at 148.5 points suggests that bookmakers anticipate a moderately high-scoring affair, likely influenced by Alabama’s scoring average. However, if Saint Mary’s succeeds in dictating a slower pace, the total points could fall below this mark. Historically, matchups between teams with such divergent styles have produced unpredictable outcomes. Saint Mary’s disciplined approach has previously yielded success against higher-seeded teams, as evidenced by their victories over Gonzaga this season. Alabama, while explosive offensively, has occasionally struggled against teams that can effectively control the tempo and limit possessions. In conclusion, this game epitomizes the strategic intricacies that make March Madness so captivating. The outcome will likely be determined by which team can assert its style of play more effectively. If Saint Mary’s can enforce a slower, controlled game and execute their defensive game plan, they stand a strong chance of advancing. However, if Alabama can maintain their offensive pace and efficiency, they may well overpower the Gaels. Fans can anticipate a compelling contest that showcases the contrasting beauty of college basketball’s diverse tactical approaches.

Gaels AI Preview

The Saint Mary’s Gaels enter their NCAA Tournament second-round showdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide with a 29-5 record and a reputation for clinical execution, elite defense, and a methodical approach that has carried them to the top of the West Coast Conference and earned them national respect as one of the most disciplined programs in the country under head coach Randy Bennett, who has turned the Gaels into a perennial tournament team despite operating outside the Power Five spotlight. Saint Mary’s plays a contrasting style to their upcoming opponent, preferring to slow the game to a crawl, utilize every second of the shot clock, and capitalize on their ability to grind opponents down through physical defense and half-court efficiency, a strategy that has led them to allow just 60.5 points per game—ranking among the best in the nation in scoring defense. At the heart of the Gaels’ success is junior point guard Augustas Marciulionis, a savvy floor general averaging 14.3 points and nearly 5 assists per game who controls tempo better than almost any player in the tournament field; his poise and decision-making in high-pressure moments are exactly what Saint Mary’s needs against a frenetic Alabama team that thrives on chaos and scoring spurts. Alongside Marciulionis, sophomore Jordan Ross provides two-way energy, facilitating offense and locking up perimeter assignments, while inside, the Gaels rely on rugged forward Mitchell Saxen to anchor their interior presence—his rebounding and shot-blocking key to protecting the rim and limiting second-chance opportunities.

The Gaels’ offense may not be flashy, but it is ruthlessly effective: they shoot a solid percentage from three, capitalize on opponents’ mistakes, and rarely turn the ball over, ranking near the top nationally in turnover rate. Their first-round win over Vanderbilt was a showcase in composure and execution, highlighted by Marciulionis’ control of the pace and the team’s ability to clamp down defensively in the second half. Against Alabama, the Gaels will need to be sharp from the opening tip, as any early deficit could put them in a position where they’re forced to speed up—a pace that favors the Crimson Tide. Defensively, Saint Mary’s will prioritize running Alabama off the three-point line, staying disciplined in closeouts, and forcing Alabama’s playmakers into contested mid-range shots, an area where the Tide are far less efficient. The Gaels also excel in team rebounding, and maintaining control of the boards will be essential to limit transition chances and keep the game at their preferred tempo. While they are underdogs in terms of seeding and public perception, Saint Mary’s brings the type of mature, experienced roster that’s capable of upending explosive teams who aren’t prepared for the grind. Their ability to execute set plays, communicate on defense, and remain calm in late-game situations gives them a legitimate shot at pulling the upset if they can avoid Alabama’s scoring avalanches and turn the game into a possession-by-possession battle. If Marciulionis and company can frustrate Alabama’s guards, force tough shots, and keep turnovers low, the Gaels could very well wear down the Tide and advance to the Sweet 16 in what would be another defining moment for Bennett’s program and a statement for tactical, deliberate basketball in an era dominated by pace and space.

On March 23, 2025, the Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) will face the Alabama Crimson Tide (26-8) in the NCAA Tournament’s second round at Rocket Arena in Cleveland. Alabama is favored by 5.5 points, with an over/under set at 148.5 points. Saint Mary's vs Alabama AI Prediction: Free CBB Betting Insights for Mar 23. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Crimson Tide AI Preview

The Alabama Crimson Tide, entering their NCAA Tournament second-round matchup against the Saint Mary’s Gaels with a 26-8 record, have established themselves as an offensive juggernaut under the guidance of head coach Nate Oats. Leading the nation in scoring with an average of 91.1 points per game, Alabama’s offensive philosophy is characterized by a relentless pace, aggressive transition play, and a prolific reliance on three-point shooting. All-America guard Mark Sears serves as the catalyst for this high-octane offense, averaging 18.8 points and five assists over the past ten games. Sears’ ability to penetrate defenses, coupled with his sharp shooting from beyond the arc, makes him a constant threat and a focal point for opposing defenses. Complementing Sears is freshman sensation Aden Holloway, who contributes 11.2 points per game and boasts a 41.4% shooting percentage from three-point range. Holloway’s emergence adds depth to Alabama’s backcourt and provides additional spacing on the floor. The Crimson Tide’s offensive strategy emphasizes quick ball movement, spacing, and an unwavering green light for shooters, resulting in a dynamic and unpredictable attack that can overwhelm opponents. Defensively, Alabama employs an aggressive approach, aiming to force turnovers and convert them into fast-break opportunities. This defensive intensity often fuels their offensive runs, creating momentum swings that can be decisive in games. In their first-round tournament victory, Alabama demonstrated their explosive potential with a commanding offensive display that reaffirmed why they’re considered one of the most dangerous teams remaining in the field, pouring in threes from multiple spots, sharing the basketball effectively, and putting opponents on their heels from the opening tip. The Tide’s approach is not without its risks, however, as their dependence on the three-point shot occasionally leads to streaky performances and cold spells that can allow opponents to hang around or stage comebacks. But Nate Oats has built a team not only with the skill to score in bunches but with the composure to weather adversity—a hallmark of a program that’s made back-to-back deep March runs and is hungry for a breakthrough into the Final Four.

A key to their success against Saint Mary’s will be controlling the tempo; Alabama will look to speed up the game and deny the Gaels the slow, methodical half-court possessions that define their style. To do so, Alabama’s guards must push the pace off makes and misses, crash the boards to initiate fast breaks, and pressure Saint Mary’s ballhandlers to force early decisions and potential turnovers. Beyond Sears and Holloway, Alabama also boasts a strong supporting cast including Rylan Griffen and Grant Nelson, both of whom provide scoring versatility and athleticism on the wings. In the frontcourt, Nelson’s ability to stretch the floor with perimeter shooting draws opposing bigs out of the paint, opening up driving lanes for guards and giving Alabama one of the most offensively spaced floors in college basketball. Defensively, the Tide will need to show discipline, particularly against a team like Saint Mary’s that thrives on exploiting defensive breakdowns and hitting late-clock shots. Rotations must be crisp, switches clean, and transition defense alert, because every possession will count in a game where each team is trying to dictate the pace in completely opposite directions. Alabama’s fanbase is known for showing up in force during March Madness, and the crowd in Cleveland could tilt momentum their way with early scoring runs, something the Tide have used effectively all season to bury teams before halftime. With a blend of veteran leadership, youthful energy, and a coaching staff that knows how to win in March, Alabama will be confident entering this matchup knowing they’ve beaten high-level competition all season and possess the nation’s most potent offense. If they can avoid defensive lapses, limit turnovers, and stay hot from three, they’ll likely be advancing to the Sweet 16 with the kind of emphatic statement that puts the rest of the bracket on notice. But if they underestimate the slower tempo and discipline of Saint Mary’s, the game could turn into a grinder that neutralizes their strengths—making the first 10 minutes of play a critical window for Alabama to establish rhythm, confidence, and scoreboard control that allows them to play their preferred brand of relentless, high-speed basketball.

Gaels vs. Crimson Tide FREE Prop Pick

Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Gaels and Crimson Tide play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Rocket Arena in Mar rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Barrett over 8.5 Points

Saint Mary's vs. Alabama CBB AI Pick

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game between the Gaels and Crimson Tide and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most focused on the trending factor emotional bettors regularly put on Saint Mary's’s strength factors between a Gaels team going up against a possibly deflated Crimson Tide team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.

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