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The upcoming NCAA Tournament second-round matchup between the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks and the No. 2 seed St. John’s Red Storm on March 22, 2025, is poised to be a thrilling contest, featuring two storied programs under the guidance of legendary coaches John Calipari and Rick Pitino, respectively. St. John’s enters the game with a remarkable 31-4 record, having secured their first outright Big East regular-season title since 1985 and their first Big East Tournament championship in 25 years, reflecting a season of resurgence and dominance. The Red Storm’s success can be attributed to a balanced offensive attack and a tenacious defense, averaging 16.0 assists per game, with point guard Kadary Richmond leading the way at 5.4 assists per game. Their ability to share the ball and find high-percentage shots has been a hallmark of their playstyle, making them a formidable opponent. Arkansas, with a 21-13 record, has experienced an up-and-down season but has shown resilience, particularly with the return of key players from injury. Their recent victory over No. 7 seed Kansas showcased their potential, as they held on to secure a win, demonstrating their capability to compete against top-tier teams. The Razorbacks’ offense has been bolstered by the return of guard Boogie Fland, whose scoring ability adds a new dimension to their attack.
Defensively, Arkansas has been inconsistent, but their ability to make crucial stops in high-pressure situations has been evident in recent games. From a betting perspective, St. John’s has been reliable against the spread (ATS) this season, boasting a 21-11-2 record, including covering in four of their last five games, indicating strong recent performance. In contrast, Arkansas holds a 15-18-1 ATS record, reflecting their inconsistency throughout the season. The opening spread favors St. John’s by 5.5 points, with the total set at 140.5 points, suggesting expectations of a moderately high-scoring affair. The coaching matchup adds an extra layer of intrigue, as Rick Pitino and John Calipari, both with storied careers and previous encounters, face off once again. Pitino’s impact on St. John’s has been profound, instilling a winning mentality and a defensive tenacity that has propelled the team to new heights. Calipari, in his first season with Arkansas after a surprising move from Kentucky, has worked to implement his system and culture, aiming to guide the Razorbacks to a deep tournament run. Key players to watch include St. John’s RJ Luis Jr. and Zuby Ejiofor, who have been instrumental in the team’s success, providing scoring, rebounding, and defensive prowess. For Arkansas, Boogie Fland’s return adds a significant offensive threat, and his performance could be a determining factor in the game’s outcome. The battle in the paint will also be crucial, as both teams possess athletic big men capable of altering shots and controlling the boards. In summary, this matchup between Arkansas and St. John’s promises to be an exciting contest, with contrasting styles and strategic battles on display. St. John’s disciplined approach and recent form make them the favorites, but Arkansas’s resilience and the tactical acumen of John Calipari ensure they cannot be underestimated. Fans can anticipate a game filled with intensity, strategic adjustments, and the high stakes that define March Madness.
ITS PRONOUNCED KAN-SAW pic.twitter.com/5mQw38Sfkn
— Arkansas Razorbacks 🐗 (@ArkRazorbacks) March 21, 2025
The Arkansas Razorbacks enter their March 22, 2025 NCAA Tournament second-round matchup against St. John’s as a battle-tested No. 10 seed with a 21-13 overall record, having just upset No. 7 seed Kansas in a gritty opening-round performance that showcased their ability to rise to the occasion despite a turbulent season defined by injuries, inconsistency, and a dramatic coaching overhaul that saw Hall of Famer John Calipari take over the program following his high-profile departure from Kentucky. After a rocky start to the year and stretches of underwhelming play, Arkansas found its rhythm late in the season as its roster regained health and cohesion, with the return of Boogie Fland providing a major lift on both ends of the court; the dynamic freshman guard led the team with 22 points against Kansas, displaying the three-level scoring, shot creation, and fearless mentality that made him one of the most coveted recruits in the country. Complementing Fland in the backcourt, veteran guard Davonte Davis continues to serve as the team’s defensive engine and emotional leader, regularly tasked with guarding the opponent’s top scorer while providing steady ball-handling and timely scoring in big moments. The frontcourt is anchored by Trevon Brazile, a rangy and athletic forward who can stretch the floor and protect the rim, and Jalen Graham, whose soft touch and footwork in the paint offer Arkansas a versatile offensive option inside. Calipari has emphasized a defensive-first identity since arriving in Fayetteville, and while the Razorbacks have struggled with defensive lapses during the season—allowing over 72 points per game—they’ve tightened up significantly during their recent stretch, including holding Kansas to just 41% shooting while winning the rebounding battle and converting key stops into transition opportunities.
Arkansas thrives in an up-tempo game, ranking among the top teams in fast break points, and their ability to push pace, draw fouls, and create mismatches with Fland and Brazile’s versatility will be central to their strategy against a disciplined and defensively sound St. John’s squad coached by the equally legendary Rick Pitino. The Razorbacks know they must limit turnovers and handle St. John’s full-court pressure effectively, something that has tripped them up at times during the season, especially against elite defensive units. Offensively, they’ll look to space the floor with shooters like Tramon Mark and Joseph Pinion, whose ability to hit from deep will be vital in preventing the Red Storm from collapsing on drives and post touches. Calipari’s March pedigree and ability to coach up a young team in high-stakes moments gives Arkansas a psychological edge, and his familiarity with Pitino’s schemes adds an intriguing tactical layer to the contest. From a betting standpoint, Arkansas is just 15-18-1 against the spread, reflecting their erratic season, but their recent play suggests they’re peaking at the right time—especially if Fland continues to play at an elite level and the team maintains its defensive focus. To pull off a second straight upset and advance to the Sweet 16, the Razorbacks will need to win the rebounding battle, force St. John’s into contested half-court looks, and capitalize on transition opportunities, all while executing with poise against one of the hottest and most well-coached teams in the country.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
The St. John’s Red Storm, under the leadership of coach Rick Pitino, have experienced a renaissance in the 2024-2025 season, culminating in a stellar 31-4 record that includes their first outright Big East regular-season title since 1985 and their first Big East Tournament championship in 25 years, signaling a return to prominence for the program. This remarkable turnaround is attributed to a cohesive team effort, characterized by a balanced offensive attack and a staunch defensive philosophy. The Red Storm average 16.0 assists per game, ranking fourth in the Big East, with point guard Kadary Richmond orchestrating the offense and contributing 5.4 assists per game, showcasing his vision and decision-making skills. Richmond’s ability to penetrate defenses and distribute the ball effectively has been instrumental in creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. Key contributors such as RJ Luis Jr. and Zuby Ejiofor have been pivotal, providing scoring, rebounding, and defensive versatility that have bolstered the team’s performance on both ends of the court. Luis, a dynamic scorer on the wing, has averaged double digits while providing timely shot-making and perimeter defense, and Ejiofor has brought physicality to the paint, serving as a reliable rim protector and rebounder whose energy often sets the tone for St. John’s frontcourt play. The Red Storm have thrived by executing Pitino’s vision of high-intensity, full-court pressure defense paired with unselfish offensive movement—forcing turnovers, pushing pace, and capitalizing in transition. This system has allowed them to suffocate slower, isolation-heavy teams and overwhelm opponents with waves of athleticism and effort.
Their depth has also been a strength, with reserves like Chris Ledlum and Simeon Wilcher contributing valuable minutes and energy off the bench, ensuring there’s little drop-off when starters rest. St. John’s ranks among the top teams nationally in turnover differential and offensive rebounding, two metrics that have fueled their ability to control tempo and swing momentum throughout games. Pitino’s fingerprints are evident in every aspect of their performance, with the team showing discipline in half-court sets and an ability to adjust quickly mid-game depending on matchups. Entering this matchup against Arkansas, the Red Storm hold the statistical and psychological edge, especially after a dominant first-round showing where they easily dispatched Omaha behind balanced scoring and suffocating defense. The familiarity Pitino has with John Calipari, stemming from their overlapping tenures in college basketball royalty, adds an intriguing subplot, as both coaches are tacticians who thrive in March and know how to make game-changing adjustments on the fly. St. John’s will look to pressure Arkansas’s young backcourt early, disrupt passing lanes, and force rushed decisions that lead to easy buckets in transition. Offensively, they’ll seek to spread the Razorbacks out, use high ball screens to create mismatches, and rely on Richmond’s control of tempo to avoid stagnation and keep Arkansas’s defenders chasing. The Red Storm have covered the spread in four of their last five games, reflecting a strong finish to the season and momentum that aligns with their current form and chemistry. Their ability to win both grind-it-out contests and fast-paced shootouts speaks to the balance and adaptability that has defined their rise in the national rankings. A win over Arkansas would propel them into the Sweet 16 for the first time in decades and further validate the massive impact Pitino has had in just his first year at the helm. As long as they avoid early foul trouble and continue to get contributions across the roster, St. John’s has every tool necessary to advance and make a legitimate run through the tournament—defensive tenacity, experienced leadership, bench depth, and a coach who’s been through the wars of March and knows how to navigate the chaos. With the Red Storm now carrying the weight of expectation rather than being the underdog, how they handle the pressure against a battle-tested Arkansas squad could determine whether this historic season continues or ends short of their rapidly rising aspirations.
By the Numbers vs Omaha:
— St. John's Men’s Basketball (@StJohnsBBall) March 21, 2025
👏 Largest margin of victory in an NCAA Tournament game
⛈️ Tied the program record for wins in a season
⚡️ First NCAA Tournament win since 2000 pic.twitter.com/1zGIbBX6xh
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each team. In fact, anytime the Razorbacks and Red Storm play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Mar can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: Z. Ejiofor over 13.5 Points
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every past game between the Razorbacks and Red Storm and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most watching on the trending emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Razorbacks team going up against a possibly strong Red Storm team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
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