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The upcoming NCAA Tournament first-round matchup between the No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks and the No. 12 seed Liberty Flames on March 21, 2025, at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, presents an intriguing contest that embodies the unpredictability and excitement characteristic of March Madness. Oregon, under the seasoned leadership of head coach Dana Altman, enters the tournament with a 24-9 record, having navigated a rigorous Big Ten schedule to secure their seeding. The Ducks’ balanced attack is spearheaded by standout players such as Nate Bittle and Jackson Shelstad, both of whom earned Third-Team All-Big Ten honors. Bittle, who also received All-Defensive team recognition, contributes significantly on both ends of the floor, averaging 17.5 points and 7.9 rebounds over the last ten games. Shelstad, a dynamic guard, adds 13.2 points per game and serves as a catalyst for Oregon’s offense with his playmaking abilities. The Ducks’ strategy revolves around a versatile offense that can adapt to various defensive schemes, coupled with a defense that ranks in the top 50 nationally in efficiency. Their experience in high-pressure situations and a track record of success in the tournament under Altman’s guidance make them a formidable opponent. Conversely, the Liberty Flames, led by head coach Ritchie McKay, boast an impressive 28-6 record and have dominated the Conference USA landscape. The Flames are renowned for their high-octane offense, averaging 76.6 points per game, and their proficiency from beyond the arc, shooting 38.5% from three-point range, ranking them among the top 15 nationally. Junior forward Zach Cleveland epitomizes Liberty’s dynamic style, averaging 10.9 points and leading the team with 6.3 rebounds per game.
His versatility and athleticism present matchup challenges for opponents, particularly when he operates in space and stretches the floor. Liberty’s defensive scheme is equally noteworthy, as they allow only 62.9 points per game, showcasing their ability to stifle opposing offenses and control the tempo. This defensive prowess, combined with their efficient offense, has been instrumental in their success this season. From a betting perspective, the current odds favor Oregon by 6.5 points, with an over/under set at 139.5 points. However, the historical propensity for No. 12 seeds to upset No. 5 seeds adds an element of intrigue to this matchup. Liberty’s 17-13-0 ATS record indicates their capability to perform well against expectations, whereas Oregon’s 15-16-2 ATS record suggests occasional struggles to cover spreads. The game’s outcome may hinge on several critical factors, including Oregon’s ability to leverage their size and athleticism to dominate the paint and control the boards. Bittle’s performance will be pivotal in this regard, as his rebounding and interior defense could limit Liberty’s second-chance opportunities. Additionally, Shelstad’s ability to penetrate and create open looks for teammates will test Liberty’s perimeter defense. On the other hand, Liberty’s success will likely depend on their three-point shooting efficiency and their capacity to dictate the game’s pace. If they can force Oregon into a perimeter-oriented game and capitalize on transition opportunities, the Flames could position themselves for an upset. In conclusion, this matchup embodies the essence of March Madness, where contrasting styles and the potential for upsets create a captivating narrative. Oregon’s experience and balanced attack make them the favorites, but Liberty’s offensive firepower and defensive tenacity provide them with a legitimate chance to defy the odds. Fans can anticipate a thrilling contest that underscores the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament.
one more sleep pic.twitter.com/TjqP9pjr48
— Liberty Men's Basketball (@LibertyMBB) March 21, 2025
The Liberty Flames arrive at the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the No. 12 seed in the East Region with a stellar 28-6 overall record, riding the momentum of a dominant Conference USA regular season and tournament championship campaign, and bringing with them a disciplined, efficient, and confident brand of basketball that has made them one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the nation under the leadership of head coach Ritchie McKay. Known for their deliberate pace and surgical execution, Liberty plays some of the most fundamentally sound basketball in Division I, averaging 76.6 points per game while allowing just 62.9, good for a top-10 national ranking in scoring defense, with a methodical, half-court-oriented style that emphasizes ball control, shot selection, and tight rotations on both ends of the floor. The Flames are built around a core of experienced and versatile players led by junior forward Zach Cleveland, who anchors the team with his inside-out scoring ability, averaging 10.9 points and a team-high 6.3 rebounds per game while operating as a matchup nightmare for opposing forwards due to his mobility, strength, and ability to stretch the floor. Joining him is guard Brody Peebles, a quick-handed, high-IQ perimeter threat who leads the team in scoring with 14.1 points per game and connects on nearly 40% of his three-point attempts, offering Liberty the type of spacing and perimeter production that forces defenses to extend and creates driving lanes and post-up opportunities. Offensively, Liberty runs a motion-heavy system with constant off-ball movement, precision screens, and a commitment to finding the best available shot—often a corner three or a high-efficiency look near the rim—and their 38.5% team shooting mark from beyond the arc ranks among the top 15 nationally.
Defensively, the Flames are disciplined and cohesive, using a pack-line scheme that prevents penetration, collapses on the ball in the paint, and closes out effectively on shooters, limiting opponents to 40.1% shooting overall and just 30.2% from three-point range. That system forces teams into uncomfortable, contested shots late in the shot clock, and Liberty compounds its stinginess by rarely fouling and winning the turnover battle with excellent ball security—just 9.6 turnovers per game—making them one of the most frustrating opponents to face in a tournament setting. From a betting perspective, the Flames are 17-13 against the spread (ATS) this season and have been one of the more reliable cover teams when playing as an underdog, a trend that’s relevant in a matchup against a No. 5 seed Oregon team that has shown occasional lapses in defensive execution and struggled to cover consistently at 15-16-2 ATS. For Liberty to engineer another classic 12-over-5 March Madness upset, the formula will be clear: control the tempo, limit possessions, shoot efficiently from deep, and force Oregon to operate outside its comfort zone in a slow, grind-it-out battle where each possession carries heightened value. If Cleveland can win his individual matchups in the post and the perimeter shooters hit early shots to build confidence and stretch the floor, the Flames have the poise, discipline, and execution to make things uncomfortable for the more athletic Ducks and position themselves for what would be a statement win on the national stage—one that continues the growing legacy of Liberty basketball as a mid-major program that thrives when the lights are brightest.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
The Oregon Ducks, under the astute leadership of head coach Dana Altman, enter the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the No. 5 seed in the East Region, boasting a 24-9 overall record that reflects a season marked by resilience, strategic adaptability, and a commitment to both offensive versatility and defensive tenacity. Transitioning seamlessly into the Big Ten Conference, the Ducks have demonstrated their ability to compete at the highest level, securing a 13-9 conference record and showcasing a balanced approach that has become a hallmark of Altman’s tenure. Offensively, Oregon averages 76.2 points per game, employing a multifaceted attack that leverages the skills of key players such as Nate Bittle and Jackson Shelstad. Bittle, a Third-Team All-Big Ten selection and All-Defensive team honoree, has been instrumental in the Ducks’ success, averaging 17.5 points and 7.9 rebounds over the last ten games, while shooting an efficient 51.2% from the field. His ability to stretch the floor with perimeter shooting and dominate the paint provides Oregon with a dynamic offensive weapon. Shelstad, the team’s floor general, contributes 13.2 points per game and orchestrates the offense with precision, facilitating ball movement and creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. The Ducks’ offensive strategy emphasizes spacing, ball movement, and shot selection, often relying on their ability to exploit mismatches through isolation sets, pick-and-roll actions, and inside-out ball reversals that create open looks for shooters and slashers alike.
Supporting Bittle and Shelstad are veteran wings like Jermaine Couisnard and Keeshawn Barthelemy, who add depth, defensive versatility, and timely shot-making, making Oregon’s perimeter attack more multidimensional and difficult to scout. The Ducks also benefit from their bench depth, with players like Lok Wur and Brennan Rigsby stepping into key rotational roles, allowing Altman to keep fresh legs on the floor and adjust schemes based on opponent tendencies. Defensively, Oregon ranks among the top 50 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 67.4 points per game while holding opponents to 41.2% shooting from the field, using a blend of man-to-man pressure, zone rotations, and full-court traps to force turnovers and disrupt rhythm. Their ability to switch screens and contest shots on the perimeter, combined with Bittle’s rim protection, makes them particularly effective at closing out games when leading late. While Oregon’s 15-16-2 ATS record suggests some inconsistency in covering spreads, much of that can be attributed to early-season injuries and a challenging conference slate, both of which they’ve navigated with increasing cohesion down the stretch. The Ducks ride a 7-3 record over their last 10 games into the tournament and have demonstrated an ability to win both high-scoring affairs and grind-it-out defensive battles, which will serve them well in March where matchups and momentum dictate outcomes. Entering this matchup against Liberty, Oregon’s focus will be on controlling tempo, using their length to disrupt the Flames’ perimeter shooting, and leveraging their athleticism to own the paint and the glass. Rebounding will be particularly critical—Oregon averages 38.1 boards per game, and Bittle, Couisnard, and center Nate Rawlins-Kibonge are all expected to play pivotal roles in limiting Liberty’s second-chance opportunities. Additionally, transition defense will be a point of emphasis, as Liberty is known for striking quickly off turnovers and defensive rebounds, and the Ducks will look to limit live-ball turnovers that could fuel those fast-break chances. Altman’s ability to make in-game adjustments and manage possessions effectively has been a key part of his program’s sustained success, and with a veteran-laden roster and a cohesive system in place, Oregon is well-positioned to avoid the dreaded 5-12 upset and potentially make a deep run in the East Region. The key will be starting strong, maintaining discipline on the perimeter, and ensuring that their stars get quality touches in high-leverage moments. If the Ducks can do that while maintaining their rebounding and defensive intensity, they not only have the tools to beat Liberty but to signal to the rest of the bracket that they are a team built for March.
24 hours out. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/MTBuOapZpo
— Oregon Men's Basketball (@OregonMBB) March 21, 2025
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Flames and Ducks play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Climate Pledge Arena in Mar rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: N. Bittle over 14.5 Points
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every facet between the Flames and Ducks and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most fixated on the growing weight knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on Liberty’s strength factors between a Flames team going up against a possibly deflated Ducks team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.
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