The upcoming NCAA Tournament first-round matchup between the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils and the 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers on March 21, 2025, at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina, presents a classic David versus Goliath scenario, with Duke entering as a powerhouse program boasting a 31-3 record and Mount St. Mary’s as the underdog with a 23-12 record. Duke, under the leadership of head coach Jon Scheyer, has had a stellar season, culminating in an Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) championship and an 11-game winning streak heading into the tournament. The Blue Devils’ offense is prolific, averaging 82.7 points per game, ranking 15th nationally, and showcasing a balanced attack with multiple scoring options. Their defense is equally formidable, allowing just 61.9 points per game, placing them seventh nationally in scoring defense. A key storyline for Duke is the status of freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who has been cleared to play against Mount St. Mary’s after recovering from a left ankle sprain. Flagg’s return bolsters an already potent lineup, as he leads the team with averages of 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. His versatility and basketball IQ make him a matchup nightmare for opponents. Complementing Flagg are players like Kon Knueppel, who contributes 14.4 points per game and is a threat from beyond the arc, and Tyrese Proctor, adding 12 points per game with strong perimeter defense. Duke’s depth and talent make them a formidable opponent for any team. On the other side, Mount St. Mary’s earned their tournament berth by winning the First Four matchup against American University, setting up this clash with Duke. The Mountaineers are led by Dola Adebayo, who averages 13.4 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, providing a strong presence in the paint. Dallas Hobbs adds 12.7 points per game and is known for his playmaking abilities, averaging 3.3 assists per game. Terrell Ard Jr. contributes 10.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, offering versatility on both ends of the court.

Mount St. Mary’s averages 70.7 points per game while allowing 69.9 points, indicating a team that plays close contests and relies on defensive tenacity. From a betting perspective, both teams have identical ATS records at 22-12-0 this season. However, the substantial point spread of 32.5 points in favor of Duke reflects the perceived disparity between the teams. Notably, Duke has been favored by 32.5 points or more twice this season, covering the spread in one of those instances. The over/under for this game is set at 140.5 points. Considering Duke’s high-scoring offense and Mount St. Mary’s tendency to play in games that surpass this total, there is potential for a high-scoring affair. In terms of strategy, Duke will likely leverage their depth, athleticism, and Flagg’s playmaking abilities to dictate the tempo and create mismatches. Their ability to score both in transition and half-court sets makes them versatile and challenging to defend. Mount St. Mary’s, recognizing the uphill battle, will aim to control the pace, minimize turnovers, and capitalize on any defensive lapses by Duke. Their experience from the First Four game could provide a slight edge in terms of recent competitive play, but the physical and talent disparities present significant challenges. Historically, No. 16 seeds have struggled against No. 1 seeds, with only one such upset occurring in NCAA Tournament history. While this underscores the difficulty of Mount St. Mary’s task, the unpredictability of March Madness always leaves room for surprises. For Duke, this game serves as an opportunity to assert their dominance and set the tone for a deep tournament run, especially with aspirations of a national championship bolstered by their top seeding and recent performance. Fans can anticipate a game where Duke seeks to showcase their offensive firepower and defensive prowess, while Mount St. Mary’s aims to defy expectations and embrace the underdog role with resilience and determination.