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The NCAA Tournament’s first-round matchup between the No. 4 seed Arizona Wildcats and the No. 13 seed Akron Zips on March 21, 2025, at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, presents an intriguing contest between a power conference stalwart and a surging mid-major program. Arizona, under the leadership of head coach Tommy Lloyd, enters the tournament with a 22-12 record, reflecting a season marked by high-octane offense and strategic prowess. The Wildcats have showcased their offensive capabilities by averaging 81.7 points per game, underpinned by a 47.3% field goal percentage. Their offensive strategy emphasizes a fast-paced tempo, ranking 55th nationally in adjusted tempo, which allows them to capitalize on transition opportunities and keep opposing defenses on their heels. Key contributors include guard Caleb Love, whose dynamic scoring ability and court vision have been instrumental in orchestrating Arizona’s offense. Love’s proficiency in creating his own shot and facilitating for teammates adds a layer of versatility to the Wildcats’ attack. In the frontcourt, seven-foot sophomore Henri Veesaar provides a significant size advantage, contributing to Arizona’s rebounding strength and interior defense. His presence in the paint deters opposing drives and alters shot trajectories, making him a crucial component of Arizona’s defensive schemes. Despite their offensive strengths, the Wildcats have encountered challenges defensively, particularly in guarding the perimeter. Opponents have found success from beyond the arc, exploiting gaps in Arizona’s defensive rotations. This vulnerability could be a focal point for Akron, a team known for its proficient three-point shooting. The Zips enter the tournament with a 28-6 record, riding the momentum of winning 21 of their last 22 games and securing the Mid-American Conference tournament title. Under the guidance of head coach John Groce, Akron has developed an offensive identity centered around pace and perimeter shooting.
The Zips average 84.6 points per game and rank 16th nationally in adjusted tempo, reflecting their commitment to an up-tempo style. Their three-point shooting, with a success rate of 36.4%, is a cornerstone of their offense, allowing them to stretch defenses and create driving lanes. However, Akron’s roster presents a stark contrast in terms of size compared to Arizona. With most players standing 6-foot-3 or under, the Zips lack the height that characterizes the Wildcats’ lineup. This disparity could pose challenges in rebounding battles and defending against Arizona’s interior scoring. From a betting perspective, Arizona is favored by 14.5 points, with an over/under set at 166.5 points. This substantial point spread underscores the perceived gap between the teams, likely influenced by Arizona’s competition level in the Big 12 and their overall athleticism. However, Akron’s recent form and offensive efficiency suggest they could defy expectations and keep the game competitive. The outcome of this contest may hinge on several critical factors. Arizona’s ability to exploit their size advantage in the paint could lead to high-percentage shots and second-chance points. Conversely, Akron’s proficiency from three-point range could challenge Arizona’s perimeter defense, especially if the Zips find their rhythm early. Additionally, the pace of the game will be pivotal; both teams favor an up-tempo style, but the Wildcats’ experience against high-caliber opponents may give them an edge in managing the game’s flow. In conclusion, while Arizona enters the game as the higher seed and favorite, Akron’s offensive capabilities and recent success suggest that this matchup could be more competitive than the seeding implies. The Wildcats’ defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against the three-point shot, align with the Zips’ offensive strengths, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring and closely contested affair. As both teams prepare to implement their strategies, fans can anticipate a dynamic game that embodies the excitement and unpredictability of March Madness.
No. 13 Zips Battle No. 4 Wildcats in NCAA Tournament
— Akron Zips MBB (@ZipsMBB) March 20, 2025
🗞️ https://t.co/psROlQoCJX
🆚 Arizona
📅 March 21
⏰ 7:35 pm
🏟️ Climate Pledge Arena
📊📺📻🎟️ https://t.co/eLUCAMcUII#GoZips🦘 pic.twitter.com/gF04d03MXl
The Akron Zips enter the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the No. 13 seed in the East Region with a 28-6 record and the momentum of a dominant run through the Mid-American Conference, including a conference tournament championship, making them one of the most dangerous mid-major teams in the bracket and a legitimate threat to challenge the higher-seeded Arizona Wildcats in their first-round matchup. Head coach John Groce, a former Big Ten coach with deep tournament experience, has instilled a culture of discipline, toughness, and precision, and this year’s Akron team exemplifies all of those traits—particularly on the defensive end, where they’ve held opponents to just 64.7 points per game, one of the lowest marks in the country. Offensively, the Zips are capable of pushing the tempo and scoring in bunches, averaging 77.2 points per game and ranking among the top 25 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, with a balanced attack that is difficult to scout and harder to slow down once in rhythm. Their system is built on smart shot selection, spacing, and perimeter ball movement, anchored by senior point guard Xavier Castaneda, who leads the team with 18.9 points and 4.4 assists per game while providing a clutch presence and floor leadership that’s been crucial in tight games. Castaneda is joined in the backcourt by sharpshooter Trendon Hankerson, who stretches the floor with a 41% clip from beyond the arc and forces defenders to stay honest, opening up driving lanes and post opportunities for the Zips’ frontcourt. Inside, Enrique Freeman is the motor of the team—an undersized but high-energy forward averaging a double-double with 15.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game—dominating the glass on both ends and serving as the team’s emotional anchor.
Despite their lack of traditional size, Akron is one of the best rebounding teams in the MAC, using positioning, toughness, and relentless pursuit to generate second-chance opportunities and limit opposing possessions. Their bench, led by junior wing Nate Johnson and freshman guard Mike Dawson, offers versatility and scoring punch, allowing Groce to mix lineups and keep legs fresh without sacrificing production. Akron shoots 36.4% from three as a team, which will be a critical weapon against an Arizona defense that has shown vulnerability on closeouts and perimeter coverage throughout the season. The Zips also excel at protecting the basketball, averaging just 10.2 turnovers per game, and their poise under pressure has been evident during their 21–1 stretch leading into the tournament, where they’ve regularly out-executed opponents down the stretch. As double-digit underdogs, Akron carries the classic March Madness profile of a 13-seed capable of busting brackets—an elite backcourt, a fearless interior presence, strong outside shooting, and a head coach who knows how to win in March. Their 13–3 record away from home shows their comfort in unfamiliar environments, and their 17–1 conference record demonstrates consistency and the ability to impose their style of play over extended stretches. To pull off the upset, Akron must slow Arizona’s tempo, limit points in transition, hit early threes to build confidence, and neutralize Arizona’s size advantage with aggressive rebounding and interior help defense. If they can execute their game plan, maintain composure, and get another big night from Castaneda and Freeman, the Zips have the ingredients to become one of the most compelling stories of the opening round.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
The Arizona Wildcats, under the direction of head coach Tommy Lloyd, enter the NCAA Tournament as the No. 4 seed in the East Region, carrying a 22-12 record that reflects a season of both impressive highs and challenging lows. Lloyd, in his fourth year at the helm, has continued to instill a culture of relentless energy and offensive innovation, traits that have become synonymous with his coaching philosophy. Offensively, the Wildcats have been formidable, averaging 81.7 points per game, a testament to their high-tempo style, efficient ball movement, and multiple scoring threats that make them one of the most dangerous offensive units in the tournament. Leading the charge is junior guard Caleb Love, who averages 19.3 points per game and serves as the catalyst for Arizona’s dynamic playstyle. Love’s ability to penetrate defenses, coupled with his sharp shooting from beyond the arc, has made him a focal point for opposing teams. Complementing Love is sophomore forward Henri Veesaar, a skilled and versatile big man who facilitates the offense from the high post with his passing vision and decision-making, averaging 11.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game while providing rim protection and a physical presence in the paint that helps anchor Arizona’s defense. His size and mobility allow Arizona to defend multiple styles of offenses, while also making him a matchup advantage against smaller, guard-heavy teams like Akron. Surrounding Love and Veesaar are a collection of versatile role players who contribute on both ends—Kylan Boswell has emerged as a steady floor general with a solid assist-to-turnover ratio and timely three-point shooting, while Pelle Larsson provides length, energy, and on-ball defense, often tasked with guarding the opponent’s best perimeter scorer.
The Wildcats are deep and unselfish, sharing the ball effectively with over 16 assists per game, ranking in the top 20 nationally in that category. They also rank high in offensive efficiency, thanks to their ability to finish in transition and execute in the half court, particularly through inside-out action and spacing that creates quality shots. Defensively, Arizona’s metrics are solid but not elite—they allow just under 70 points per game and are top 40 in opponent field goal percentage, though they have shown vulnerability guarding the three-point line, giving up 34.8% from deep on the season, an area that could be tested against a three-point-reliant Akron team. Arizona’s rebounding, led by Veesaar and backup forward Motiejus Krivas, is a strength, and they’ll look to dominate the boards against a much smaller Zips team that lacks true size in the frontcourt. While the Wildcats have stumbled at times this season, including some uncharacteristic losses in conference play, their ability to beat top competition—as shown in wins over Duke, USC, and Baylor—demonstrates their high ceiling when locked in. From a betting perspective, Arizona has been inconsistent against the spread (ATS), especially as a double-digit favorite, but in tournament settings, they often rise to the moment under Lloyd’s leadership, playing with a blend of urgency and composure. In this first-round matchup against Akron, Arizona’s primary focus will be establishing their tempo early, leveraging their size to control the paint, and applying defensive pressure to disrupt Akron’s rhythm from beyond the arc. If Love can get going offensively and the supporting cast hits shots in rhythm, the Wildcats have the tools to run away with the game and build confidence for deeper rounds. The key will be staying engaged defensively, especially on closeouts, and avoiding the type of slow starts that have occasionally plagued them this season. With a veteran guard, a capable frontcourt, tournament experience, and one of the most dynamic offenses in the country, Arizona comes into this matchup with a clear advantage on paper and a chance to make a statement as a legitimate contender—not just to win their region, but to make a push for a return to Final Four relevance, something the program hasn’t seen in over two decades.
📍Seattle, WA pic.twitter.com/wr01wPcsu6
— Arizona Basketball (@ArizonaMBB) March 21, 2025
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of datapoints on each team. In fact, anytime the Zips and Wildcats play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Climate Pledge Arena in Mar can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Love under 20.5 Points
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Zips and Wildcats and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most watching on the trending emphasis human bettors often put on coaching factors between a Zips team going up against a possibly tired Wildcats team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.
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